The Russian Stocks

For all the negativity in the West about matters of Russian corruption, murderous oligarchs, dysfunctional banks, and inept civil servants, the bottom line is that in the past four years there has been

(i) a remarkable success in all Russian capital markets,
(ii) a period of extraordinary change in the Russian tax code and budgetary and state financial system, and
(iii) several years of such enormous fiscal surpluses that the country is now a net creditor nation and holds sufficient foreign reserves to buy back 100 percent of its foreign-owned debt with enough left over to fund close to a year's imports.

Compared to Russia, it is America that is the nation in deep financial trouble.

Strong Economic Growth

Russia has strong economic growth (would you believe over 7 percent annually?), strong wage growth and consumer consumption, and a strong Ruble. In fact the Ruble is so strong, there is a worry among Russians that it might be upwardly valued, which would serve to put the brakes on economic growth there.

Recessions in Russia have led to a very hard landing in the past, like 1998, which was a financial disaster of the highest order. Since that financial crisis, however, fully 100 percent of Russian bonds have been paid in full.  As a result, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is pouring into many Russian sectors and industries, including oil and energy, telephones, autos, retail, high tech and aviation tech. The corporate acquisitors include the biggest ones from America, Europe, India and China.

As to its democracy, the freely elected Russian Duma is a smashing success. President Bush's GOP could only dream of holding two-thirds of the seats in Congress, as does Vladimir Putin's Unity Party in the Duma. Moreover, Bush himself would crave the popularity VVP enjoys in Russia.  Of course, having ousted oligarchs like Khordorkovsky, Potanin, and Berezovsky, who have been known to buy off Western lobbyists as well as attending to their usual fare of murder and tax evasion, which for some reason goes under the NYC radar, there is an extremely high level of negativity for Putin in the Western media.
Then again, such actions by organizations like Menatep did little to serve Russian society or the minority shareholders, from all I have read, so Putin is highly regarded in his homeland for taking those actions.
But, just like other emerging economies, like China, India and Brazil, it is quite obvious that Russia is hardly perfect. Taking Yukos away from Menatep and Khordorovsky, on a charge of tax evasion, did hurt the minority shareholders, which will take much time for reputational recovery. It will also take generations, possibly, to solve the impediments in today's civil service, banking and mortgage industries.
On other scores, like corporate governance, huge strides have been made in recent years, but improvement is still needed.

Russia has always enjoyed the geographic advantage of being the bridge between Western Europe and Asia/Pacific. For many years, the country has produced world-class math and science graduates. And for hundreds of years, Russia has managed to survive an oppressive and tragic history because of, not in spite of, its well-known social fabric and personal work ethic values.

The Russian Stock Exchange

Foreign investors today can look to the Russian Trading System (RTS Stock Exchange) as a phenomenally successful market (see the chart below) and a market that still trades at less than half the PE multiple of the S&P.

In a secular global market trend to higher commodity prices and rising demand, Russia abounds in oil, metal, forest and agricultural commodities. These commodities, including finished products, are being exported to the world, largely to China and Japan, with Love, and the result is enormous profitability for the Russian manufacturers and producers.

Russia is one of the world's largest oil players. It holds about 5 percent of world oil reserves and produces about ten percent of its daily oil production.  I set up a trading monitor for the Russian common stocks to start 1Q05. In a couple days, I'll get into the Preferred stocks that trade on the RTS, as well. I'll start to watch this market much more closely.

After some ten hours of intense reading over two days, I learned that the following stocks bear watching closely:
Oils: LUKoil, Tatneft, Purneftegaz and Bashkortostan refineries (but not Sibneft) (and Yukos should soon go to zero)
Steels: Severstal, NTMK and NLMK
Metals: VSMPO and Norilsk
Pulp and Paper stocks: yes
Agriculture stocks: yes
Airlines: Aeroflot (very profitable)
Telephones: Rostelecom, Volga and Siberia (but not MGTS)
Power company stocks: UES and Samaraenergo (but not Mosenergo)
Consumer stocks: Pharmacy 36,6 and RBC (but not Wimm-Bill-Dann)
Aviation Technology stocks: Ufa Machine (UFMO)

As for me, I've had my experiences with Russians in the gold markets, including hosting the chief general manager (gold trading and forex) of the Central Bank of Russia as well as the governors of many of the Russia Far East provinces. That was the Spring of 1997, a year before the Russia capital market imploded.
Still, I am a novice.

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