“Government bonds are now an
extremely poor investment.”
- Société
Générale Global Strategy Outlook, 1 December 2009.
As
Detective ‘Dirty’ Harry Callahan once said, a good man always knows his limitations.
The employees of investment banks are not always the first to concede to any
kind of limits with regard to human intelligence, insight or fortune-telling.
Bloomberg reported on Friday the opinion of [name withheld to avoid
embarrassment], an interest rate strategist at [name of bank withheld to avoid
embarrassment]. [Name withheld to avoid embarrassment] has just joined [name of
bank withheld to avoid embarrassment] having previously worked at another
bankrupt investment bank, namely [name of Wall Street bank withheld to avoid
embarrassment]. His opinion is that US Treasury bonds are outrageously cheap
and that next year will be the year of the bond. He may be right.
On the other hand, he may be
catastrophically wrong. His employer, for example, which is effectively in
government ownership having wrecked its own balance sheet and impoverished most
of its shareholders, is also the UK bank with the single biggest exposure to
the troubled holding company Dubai World. (As Shakespeare once said, when sorrows
come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.) Never mind. His previous
employer, a US investment bank that wrecked its own balance sheet and
impoverished most of its shareholders, is now a unit of a commercial bank that
itself required emergency government support. Never mind. You can’t necessarily
be right all of the time. Or indeed any of the time.
To read more, and you know you want to,
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