Where's the Tech?

Submitted By Trader Mark
A reader mentioned I have little to no tech exposure and they are correct - quite sad considering that is probably the best sector right now. I've been looking at some chip plays because that is the "go to" sector when the economy is (ahem) about to recover, but I wanted to see what Texas Instruments (TXN) and Broadcom (BRCM) said today - neither impressed me. TXN is running at 35% capacity utilization (that is scary) and sees no upticks in US or Europe - only in Asia, mostly in China (where else?). The bull case is inventories have been worked off so now any uptick in demand is all good. That's the "playbook" (buy semis when the economy is turning within 6 months) so as long as all the mutual funds follow it, the stocks will work. This sam e group had a run a few times last year on the same thesis - which was proven wrong in due time. I like Marvell Technology (MRVL) as a poor man's Broadcom but the chart for Marvel went bad yesterday.

I wrote a few weeks ago I am interested in networking on the stimulus broadband buildout idea [Apr 8: Stimulus Fire Hydrant (Worldwide) Should Benefit Networking Companies / Broadband] ... I almost bought Riverbed Technology (RVBD) about 4x in the past week as a nice chart is there, and it pulls back to support often, but earnings come this week and I don't like making bets ahead of earnings. Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) which is part networking and part security pulled back to a support level yesterday and I almost bought it, but it will be affected by Riverbed's earnings. Etc. So this group is hard for me to make a bet in when they will be getting whipsawed momentarily. Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Cisco (CSCO) ... eh.

Or one could chase the usual suspects - Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), or Google (GOOG). They've gone a long way in a long time and I hate chasing; I'd be happy to buy Apple or Research in Motion again on some sort of downturn that lasts more than 1 day.

I like growth stories, and as I repeat constantly - technology is mostly an over hyped version of industrials; very cyclical but with sex appeal because they do cool things with silicon! Sandisk (SNDK) is a great example - yawn. The main thing many of these companies have going for them, especially in the large cap area are fortress balance sheets with a lot of cash. But I just can't get very excited buying Oracle (ORCL) - sorry.

I will probably go with Riverbed Technology, Blue Coat Systems, or F5 Networks (FFIV) [Apr 9: Juniper Networks (JNPR) and F5 Networks (FFIV) Benefit from Low Expectations] if and when the time comes, but I will see what Riverbed has to say Thursday first.

Frankly I am more excited with some of the Chinese video games of late - Shanda Interactive (SNDA) has been excellent. The U.S. is so 1990s.

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