Thursday's stock market was quite a bore, even with the Philadelphia Fed reading came above the expected number. The reading showed contraction but far less than expected, suggesting things aren't as bad as they may appear. Stocks took notice and jumped higher, but could not hold the highs. From the highs stocks bounced around in lackluster fashion. News from the treasury market still isn't good the Treasury Department announced its largest ever auction. Bond prices fell as investors once again are fleeing the treasury market, not in fear of inflation but the massive amount of supply coming on the market. The market took little notice and continued its lackluster trade. Overall, the market was taking a breathier as options are set to expiry tomorrow.
On the positive side the NASDAQ was able to consolidate its gains from Wednesday's session. On the other hand the S&P 500 rose on lighter volume suggesting buying action on the index wasn't supported by institutional players. Remember, we need to see volume coming into stocks to show strength with a move higher. Without volume, the move quite possibly could turn out to be a headfake. Clearly the NASDAQ is much better behaved and the leading major index.
Leading stocks were largely untouched, displaying support at key moving averages. It is of the utmost importance we begin to see well rounded bases with proper accumulation. At the moment there are plenty of choppy bases without sound price patterns indicating we are in a choppy market. We could remain in a choppy market for awhile, but it'll be leading stocks giving us the signals whether or not the choppy action has ended. Remember, tight price action is ALWAYS an indication of strength and you should be paying attention.
Tomorrow's option expiration day can always add an element of surprise. Volume can either be normal, like any other Friday or it can be quite large distorting the overall movement of the market. Usually, volume from options expiry shows up at the beginning of the day's trading session. We'll know from the start if volume is coming into the market via options or regular buying. Investors Business Daily compares hourly volume from the day before and is a great way to see where volume is coming into the market.
We are still charging forward with this market, taking what we can get from it. Keeping focused and positive we are able position ourselves in the right position to extract gains. Always remember to keep your losses small!
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