U.S. Dollar "Flies": A Blip or Start of Something Big?

Submitted By Michael Michaud

"World stocks in modest pullback as dollar flies"

LONDON — World stocks fell modestly Tuesday . . . while the dollar rallied after the heads of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank attempted to talk the currency up.

That was the opening paragraph of an Associated Press article posted on Tuesday morning (Nov. 17). The U.S. dollar gained strongly on Tuesday; by lunchtime, the EUR/USD (the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro; the most widely traded forex pair) moved lower by some 150 points (or pips).

The central bankers themselves appeared to confirm the news story: The Fed's chairman Bernanke said on Monday they were watching currencies markets to "help ensure that the dollar is strong"; the ECB's Trichet said that Bernanke's statement was "very important."

Apparently, forex traders interpreted both comments as bullish for the dollar... but if you've been watching the EUR/USD's Elliott wave patterns, you didn't have to wait for the morning news to tell you that.

The day before the U.S. dollar took the upper hand, Elliott Wave International's Intensive Currency Specialty Service posted the following daily forecast for subscribers:

Update For: Tuesday
Posted On: Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:49:51 GMT
EURUSD Last Price: 1.4974
[Rolling over] Key Levels: 1.5051. If the decline from 1.5051 is impulsive, ending in a failed fifth wave, the rebound from Friday is a deep correction. The proximity to the prior peak a means the risk associated with a bearish view is minimal. A decline below 1.4880 would bolster the bearish outlook...

If you're new to Elliott, here's what that means. Wave patterns subdivide into two major categories: impulses and corrections. Impulses are 5-wave moves that indicate the direction of the larger trend. Corrections are 3-wave affairs that go against the trend. As the chart above shows, the decline in the EUR/USD from the $1.5051 looks impulsive, and the rally off $1.4823 -- corrective. So what should have come next was the resumption of the larger trend -- in this case, down.

And that's exactly what we saw in the 150-pip drop on Tuesday. To find out if this is just a temporary blip or a start of something big for the dollar, click here to read the latest Currency Specialty Service forecasts online now.

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