T-Bill Versus Fed Funds

Submitted By Michael Krause
This is yet another interesting relationship. For useful forecasting, you may want to compare it to the previous entry concerning S&P versus 10 year yield valuations.

Fed funds rates tend to lag 90 day T-Bill rates in direction, by the appearance of these charts. This relationship is interesting because the markets in flight to safety often guides the fed via demand for 90 day T-Bills. Notice how 1974 is a trough in both the spread ratio: (T-Bill - Fed Funds)/Fed Funds as well as S&P valuation. This coincided with a deep recession coincident with oil shocks.



The ratio is a more normalized picture, adjusting for periods where yields were much larger and more volatile (12-20% in the early 80s):



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