Surprisingly Weak Market Here

Submitted By Trader Mark
Well not much of a rally after all from midday yesterday; we had our closing minute "mark up" rally late yesterday but quite weak today despite initial strength in Europe.

With my exponential moving averages, we are firmly below the 50 day moving average and yesterday and today's intraday highs just scraped it from below. But unable to burst through. On this chart there is no real support other than S&P 880 (others are using 875) Once (if) these levels break, I think S&P 830s is a given.

With the simple moving average, we are getting the situation I explained in the weekly summary - the 200 day moving average is falling at a hearty rate but its providing "support" each day even as it falls. Yesterday it was S&P 887, today its 885. Not too long from now it will actually cross below the line in the sand 880 and then 875.

While this chart could be construed as "bullish" as we continue to bounce off the (ever dropping) 200 day moving average, we have a trend change that tells us that rallies are now to be sold and new shorts installed, rather than vice versa. I had a few short set ups with limit orders 5-7% higher than current prices around noon yesterday but none of those hit late yesterday or early this AM.

I expect a mad rush of sellers once we break 875-880 level if and when. A bit surprised no oversold bounce here, unless that charade in the last 20 minutes of the day yesterday was the bounce. The "buy the dip" mentality will continue until it no longer works - it worked somewhat late yesterday but the gains were meek.

So now we wait to see how this congested area of S&P 875-885 resolves. But intermediate term all signs point to bear.

Let me throw NASDAQ in here since it has been the outperformer for the year - yesterday this index underperformed and is doing so again today. Remember, I said this is the place institutional money is hiding because "it's safe" - it is crowded. I said the same "crowded" thing about "reflation" a month ago - I expect the same bad reaction when and if the market begins to break down.

The story here is much more simple - we're right at support. If this breaks, you know the story.

I'll be targeting Research in Motion (RIMM) as a short if we breakdown on NASDAQ - it is holding onto dear life.

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