In our Chartwell Global Strategy portfolio, we have had exchange-traded fund positions in both the Swiss Franc (FXP) and Japanese Yen (FXY). My thinking was that the probability that the Japanese yen would strengthen was higher than the long anticipated recovery in the Japanese stock market and that the Swiss franc was a better bet than many European ETFs such as Austria (EWO), Netherlands (EWN) and Belgium (EWK) which have 40% or more exposure to the financial sector.
This currency combination is also a play on the unwinding of the carry trade and general risk aversion in global markets. At some point, valuations for many financial-oriented ETFs will reach a very attractive point for re-entry.
With news of a deepening U.S. economic weakness and a downward tend expected in interest rates, the dollar dropped to a record low against the Swiss franc and its weakest level in two and a half years against the yen on Wednesday. My opinion is that while lower rates help a bit in terms of staving off a recession, their impact is steadily decreasing and the negative impact on the value of the U.S. dollar and our economic standing in the world is of much greater concern.
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