ProShares ETFs fail to track NASDAQ properly today - is this rally meaningful?

Submitted By Sal Mangano

Some numbers to consider from today's trading:

NASDAQ Composite up 2.28%
NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) up 2.43%
PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) up 2.38%

ProShares has a couple of ETFs that track the NASDAQ 100 on the long side and on the short side. One would have expected the double long ETF to move up nearly 5% and the double short ETF would have moved down nearly 5%.

What we saw instead is the following:

ProShares Ultra QQQ (QID) up 3.54%
ProShares Ultra-Short QQQ (QID) down 3.74%

Does this mean that ProShares was not able to deliver the expected returns and failed to track their underlying indexes properly? Or does it mean that investors did not completely buy into today's rally in the NASDAQ and, as a result, did not sell off the ultra-short ETF or bid up the ultra-long ETF as much as expected?

I see this happen periodically. Is it a tell? Is it an indication we can't trust today's rally? Stayed tuned.

Strongest Technical Performance in ProShares ETFs --

In the meantime, what can we deduce from the technical situation with the other ProShares ETFs?

The following table lists the ETFs generating the strongest technical signals based on moving averages, DMI and Aroon.

Symbol	Signal Type	Name	Category	20-Day MA over 50-day MA	DMI	Aroon
DOG	BUY	Short Dow30	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 47 +DI: 31 -DI: 7)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
DXD	BUY	UltraShort Dow30	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 46 +DI: 30 -DI: 7)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
EEV	BUY	UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets	Short International	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 32 -DI: 13)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
EFU	BUY	UltraShort MSCI EAFE	Short International	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 32 +DI: 34 -DI: 12)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
EFZ	BUY	Short MSCI EAFE	Short International	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 42 +DI: 47 -DI: 12)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 8 Osc: 92
EUM	BUY	Short MSCI Emerging Markets	Short International	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 32 +DI: 40 -DI: 14)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
EWV	BUY	UltraShort MSCI Japan	Short International	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 27 +DI: 35 -DI: 17)	Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 16 Osc: 76
FXP	BUY	UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25	Short International	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 25 +DI: 31 -DI: 21)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 4 Osc: 92
MYY	BUY	Short MidCap400	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 38 +DI: 39 -DI: 9)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
MZZ	BUY	UltraShort MidCap400	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 36 +DI: 35 -DI: 9)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
PSQ	BUY	Short QQQ	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 24 +DI: 26 -DI: 18)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
QID	BUY	UltraShort QQQ	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 24 +DI: 25 -DI: 18)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
REW	BUY	UltraShort Technology	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 23 +DI: 27 -DI: 16)	Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 12 Osc: 80
RXL	BUY	Ultra Health Care	Ultra Sector	No	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 23 +DI: 26 -DI: 24)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 50 Osc: 50
SBB	BUY	Short SmallCap600	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 25 +DI: 39 -DI: 20)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SCC	BUY	UltraShort Consumer Services	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 30 -DI: 14)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SDK	BUY	UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth	Short Style	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 34 -DI: 11)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 44 Osc: 56
SDS	BUY	UltraShort S&P500	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 38 +DI: 31 -DI: 8)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SFK	BUY	UltraShort Russell1000 Growth	Short Style	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 26 +DI: 31 -DI: 16)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 16 Osc: 84
SH	BUY	Short S&P500	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 38 +DI: 32 -DI: 8)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SIJ	BUY	UltraShort Industrials	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 27 +DI: 30 -DI: 14)	Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 16 Osc: 76
SJF	BUY	UltraShort Russell1000 Value	Short Style	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 35 +DI: 31 -DI: 13)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
SJH	BUY	UltraShort Russell2000 Value	Short Style	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 32 +DI: 32 -DI: 7)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SJL	BUY	UltraShort Russell MidCap Value	Short Style	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 42 +DI: 42 -DI: 13)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
SKF	BUY	UltraShort Financials	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 45 +DI: 33 -DI: 12)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84
SKK	BUY	UltraShort Russell2000 Growth	Short Style	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 25 +DI: 28 -DI: 11)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 16 Osc: 80
SMN	BUY	UltraShort Basic Materials	Short Sector	No	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 27 +DI: 36 -DI: 12)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 44 Osc: 56
SRS	BUY	UltraShort Real Estate	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 28 +DI: 28 -DI: 20)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 12 Osc: 88
SSG	BUY	UltraShort Semiconductors	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 23 +DI: 28 -DI: 15)	Strong Up trend - Up: 92 Down: 12 Osc: 80
SZK	BUY	UltraShort Consumer Goods	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 30 +DI: 26 -DI: 24)	Strong Up trend - Up: 84 Down: 12 Osc: 72
TLL	BUY	UltraShort Telecommunications	Short Sector	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 43 +DI: 68 -DI: 19)	Strong Up trend - Up: 100 Down: 4 Osc: 96
TWM	BUY	UltraShort Russell2000	Short Market Cap	Yes	DMI: strong trend Up (ADX: 31 +DI: 31 -DI: 13)	Strong Up trend - Up: 96 Down: 12 Osc: 84

There are 32 ETFs in the list above. Everyone is in the short or ultra-short category.

What this shows is that today's rally has not yet affected a change in the primary trend which, based on the strength of these bearish ETFs, is still clearly down.

Disclosure: at time of writing author is long QID and MZZ

Did you like this article?