Premarket Analysis for 6/18- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Andy Wang

WALL STREET JOURNAL: Steven Spielberg and his DreamWorks (DWA) partners are close to signing a deal with India’s Reliance ADA Group for between $500M and $600M that would provide financing to the company as it prepares to leave Viacom’s (VIA) Paramount Pictures this year, the Wall Street Journal reported. DreamWorks will seek to obtain an additional $500M in debt financing to make about six new films a year…The Wall Street Journal also reported that at an investor update yesterday, Hershey (HSY) CEO David West said the chocolate-bar maker would boost spending on marketing about 20% this year and next, and slightly increased the company’s long-term annual sales targets, but offered little detail on how it will address its reliance on the U.S. market for revenue…ECONOMIC TIMES: The Economic Times reported that India’s Maneesh Pharmaceuticals, a mid-sized company, bought a 51% stake in U.S.-based Synovics Pharmaceuticals (SYVC). The terms of the deal were not disclosed…The Economic Times also reported that General Electric’s (GE) GE Money Financial Services, which was seeking a parter for its personal and home loan portfolios, may have called off the process after it was unable to get the right valuation…DETROIT NEWS: Bob Nardelli, the chairman and CEO of Chrysler LLC, sent a memo to employees warning them of worsening U.S. sales, the Detroit News reported. The e-mail did not indicate the auto maker would look to soon further cut production or lay off staff, a person familiar with the matter said…

Royal Bank of Scotland predicts global stock and credit crash soon-Telegraph
The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has told its clients to be prepared for a crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months. The bank predicts that the world’s major central banks will be paralyzed by inflation. The S&P 500 is likely to drop more than 300 points by September, the bank warns.

FDX reports Q4 EPS $1.45 vs. consensus of $1.44
Reports Q4 revenue $9.87B vs. consensus $9.60B.
FDX sees Q1 EPS 80c-$1.00 vs. consensus of $1.27.
FDX sees FY09 EPS $4.75-$5.25 vs. consensus of $5.92
FDX CEO says operating environment in 2009 to be ‘very difficult’

FDX: high fuel prices, weak economy “substantially” affected bottom line
This comment was made on the FDX Q4 earnings conference call.

RIMM: Expect another solid quarter, maintain Overweight@JPMS
JP Morgan expects RIMM to report a solid quarter with potential upside from European operations and thinks guidance can sustain the stock’s momentum.

YRCW: See upside potential from large short base@JPMS
JP Morgan believes the company’s confirmed Q2 guidance suggests cost savings are on track and YRCW is on a path reduced liquidity risk. They believe risk to upside since 23.4M shares are shorted. They maintain a Neutral rating.

LNN reports Q3 EPS $1.15 vs. consensus of $1.22
Reports Q3 revenue $143.6M vs. consensus $137.27M.

MS reports Q2 EPS 95c vs. consensus of 92c
Reports Q2 revenue $6.51 vs. consensus of $7.05B.

GS: Estimates and target raised@MLCO
Merrill raised 2008 EPS estimate to $17.71 from $16.62 following the Q2 report. Target to $212 from $207. Shares are Buy rated.

First Solar-FSLR initiated with a Hold@STFG
Stanford believes the company will be able to maintain its cost advantage for several years as a result of its lower cost thin film technology, and they note that it has a large backlog. However, the firm thinks the stock is fairly valued.

Solar Industry: Senate fails to pass bill for second time in a week@SBSH
Citigroup finds the next steps for H.R. 6049 unclear since the Republicans continue to show that they have the votes to prevent it from moving forward. Their contacts indicate there will continue to be a lot of noise and political wrangling around the issue through the summer. Citigroup believes SunPower (SPWR) is most leveraged to the passage of US legislation and thinks headline risk remains high until the bill is passed. First Solar (FSLR) remains the firm’s favorite solar play.

AMZN: Reiterate Buy after meeting with management@SBSH
Citigroup believes AMZN has one of the strongest growth profiles in the Net sector while trading at “reasonably attractive” valuation levels.

GS: Believe company is fairly priced@OPCO
After Goldman reported stronger than expected results for its Q2, Oppenheimer thinks that Goldman is still performing better than its peers. However, the firm is still cautious on the brokers group, and they maintained their Market Perform rating on Goldman.

PCLN added as an Internet Top Pick, maintain Buy@PIPR
Piper expects the company’s strong growth in Europe to continue and finds the valuation attractive at current levels. The firm maintains a Buy rating and $175 target.

RIMM: Estimates and target raised@LEHM
Lehman raised RIMM estimates and its price target to $165 from $145 citing the Curve launch and upcoming Bold release to drive estimates higher. Shares are Overweight rated.

John Paulson says ‘are only 1/3 of way through writedowns’-Bloomberg
Paulson sees total losses from the crisis at $1.3 Trillion.

AAPL: Estimates and target raised@MSCO
Morgan Stanley raised AAPL 2009 EPS estimate to $6.87 from $6.77 and 2010 EPS estimate to $8.57 from $8.32 citing the company’s ability to sell software and services to the iPhone installed base. Target to $210 from $185. Shares are Overweight rated.

AMBAC ‘deteriorating very rapidly’ John Paulson says-Bloomberg
Paulson said that AMBAC (ABK) downgrades are ‘inevitable.’ :

Mechel Steel-MTL downgraded to Neutral from Buy@GSCO

Fast Money position recap- First moves- Jeff says trim your ATVI, Guy likes WFR, Joe likes BNI, Pete likes ENER at $70. Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (BTU), (NUE), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Macke Owns (INTC), (MSFT), (ATVI), (WMT); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (BHI), (CHK), (TSO), (XLF), (MYGN),(ENER); Najarian Owns (MS) Puts, (BAC) Puts; Terranova Owns (LUV), (FXC); Terranova Is Long Dec 2008 Crude Oil; Terranova Is Short Dec 2009 Crude Oil

Watching for further weakness today and still bearish since June 6, 9th. Looking for shorts in financials such as STI, ZION, FITB, PNC, BBT. I’m going defensive for the foreseeable future, looking for shorts over longs due to market conditions and the gut feeling I get. The note from Royal Bank of Scotland to its clients is not a joke (see above). Look for protection and stay in the strong areas of the market if you have to go long, there still should be pockets of strength but it will be small. Stay focused, keep positive, run technicals through supply and demand. Pick plays with a high probability of success. Good Luck and great trading.
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