Premarket Analysis for 5/30- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Andy Wang

Submitted By Optiondragon

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From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Friday, May 30th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: Merger talks between UAL Corp ’s (UAUA) United Airlines and US Airways Corp. (LCC) have been put off for now, the Wall Street Journal reported. United is reportedly close to an alliance with Continental Airlines (CAL)…Harris Corp (HRS) is for sale and the company has begun to hear from interested parties, the Wall Street Journal also reported. Harris is looking for $75 to $80 per share. Speculation about the bidders includes General Dynamics Corp. (GD) and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC)…CHARLESTON GAZETTE: The Charleston Gazette reported that Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has decided not to build its Eastern Division headquarters in Charleston, West Virginia in the wake of a West Virginia Supreme Court ruling on May 22…APPLEINSIDER: AppleInsider reported that Apple (AAPL) is expected to announce a back-to-school deal soon that will encourage students to buy new Macs by offering some of the largest incentives in the history of the company…

Hess Corp. focuses on oil exploration and development-IBD
They have 1,300 gas stations on the East Coast and are known for their popular toy trucks, but these days Hess Corp. (HES), an integrated oil company, is focused on oil exploration and development from Brazil to Ghana, according to Investor’s Business Daily’s “The New America”. The company sees big gains coming, beginning next year from from fields in the Gulf of Thailand, deep-water Gulf of Mexico and Indonesia. “It is drilling potentially game-changing prospects in Brazil, Australia, Ghana, Libya and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico,” says Merrill Lynch’s Erik Mielke. Analysts see $8.74 a share in 2008, a 46% increase over last year. First quarter per share earnings of $2.34 doubled last year’s. If oil prices were to slide, analysts then expect a 5% drop next year to $8.27 per share.

JCG: Would buy on weakness, maintain Outperform@OPCO
After J. Crew reported slightly higher than expected Q1 EPS but provided much lower than expected Q2 and 2008 EPS guidance, Oppenheimer believes the company’s guidance is probably conservative. The firm thinks J. Crew’ still has superior products, management team, and multi-channel strategy.

Marathon Oil-MRO assumed with a Buy, target $77@SBSH
Citigroup believes the stock can reach their target price if the company’s executes and delivers on its Alvheim and Neptune projects later this year.

INTC: Expect easy comparisons to come to an end in Q2@PIPR
Piper thinks INTC is on track to meet the mid-point of its guidance but believes the easy year-over-year comparisons are coming to an end in Q2. Further, the firm thinks INTC’s market share gains in servers are likely near a peak. Shares remain Neutral rated.

PBR coverage transferred with a Buy from Neutral@GSCO
Target to $84 from $70

SWN downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform@FBRC
Friedman Billings downgraded shares on valuation and removed the stock from their Top Picks list. Target $40.

TIF reports Q1 EPS 50c vs. consensus of 40c
Reports Q1 revenue $668.1M vs. consensus of $648.87M.
TIF reaffirms FY08 outlook
The company maintains a cautious outlook for U.S. sales and does not expect an improvement until later this year.
TIF sees 2008 EPS $2.80-$2.90 vs. consensus of $2.73
Sees 2008 worldwide net sales growth of approximately 10%.

FSLR: Recent pullback a buying opportunity@MSCO
Morgan Stanley reiterates their Overweight rating and $325 price target.

MRVL upgraded to Overweight from Neutral@JPMS
JP Morgan upgraded MRVL as the believe the worst in dilution is over following the Q1 report.

CMC upgraded to Buy from Neutral@GSCO
Target to $43 from $36.

VLO coverage assumed with a Buy, target $74@SBSH

Solar: Cover Solar Shorts following German Tariff agreement@PIPR
Piper said the German Government reached a final agreement on feed-in tariff reduction for Solar and Wind this morning. The firm said the feed-in tariff is reported to be 8% for 2009 vs. 9.1% previously, 8% for 2010 vs. 7% previously, and 9% for 2011 vs. 8% previously. The firm does not expect any further changes and recommends investors Buy the sector.

German Solar Subsidies to fall 8% in 2009, 2010 and 9% in 2011, sources say-DJ
Dow Jones, citing sources, also reported that German wind power subsidies rise more than plan due to raw material costs.

AAPL: Remains our best idea@MWRE
FTN Midwest said AAPL remains their best idea following their most recent survey. The survey reinforced their bullish thesis given: Continued Vista issues are drawing consumers to MAC, improving Mac and iPod Touch channel traction, new iPhone and Mac product cycles. Shares are Buy rated.

U.S. equity futures are still pointing to a slightly higher open even though the price of crude oil has reversed and is now trading higher. The futures are getting a boost from a good earnings report from Dell (DELL) and Marvell Technology (MRVL). The Commerce Department released its personal income and personal spending reports. The report showed personal spending rose 0.2% versus an expected rise of 0.1%, and that personal income rose 0.1% versus an expected increase of 0.2%. The PCE Deflator Core reading came in with an increase of 0.1%. The reports had little impact on the futures.

Fast Money position recap- Jeff likes getting long JCG, Guy preferrs TSO, Karen likes C, Pete likes CHK.
Adami Owns (BTU), (C), (AGU), (NUE), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (AAPL); Finerman’s Firm Owns SPX Index Puts; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (BIG); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (C) And (C) Leaps; Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (GLNG); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (ANR), (BHI), (TSO), (XTO), (XLF), (HPQ), (BKC) (MAS), (ENER),  (SYMX) (SVNT); Pete Najarian Owns (BAC) Puts.

It looks like the solar sector has some fire to it today after the German government finalized its decision on solar tariffs. FSLR, JASO, STP, YGE, LDK, SPWR are all rallying and gapping higher this morning in relief. I’m going to watch tech and energy today with an eye on the financials and UUP (US dollar). The strength in the dollar has given the market stability and some corresponding strength luring overseas investment funds into the US market. Over time as the financial sector calms down and becomes more transparent, this will help support the dollar and the perception that the US is out of the danger zone thus inviting more investment in the US stock market.
Tech could show further strength as the 4 Horsemen and Big Cap Tech could be strong today and we could get a bounce in energy shares even though oil prices keep slipping lower. Take care and seek the zone. Stay positive and pick plays with a high probability of success. Have a great weekend and enjoy it. Great trading and always great luck!
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