Premarket Analysis for 4/30- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Andy Wang

Submitted By Optiondragon

The Strokes - 12:51

From briefing.com
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Media Digest 4/30/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTime, FT, Bloomberg from 24/7 Wallst.
According to Reuters, the Fed will probably cut rates and them pause for some time

Reuters writes that senior financiers see the current economic situation as a recession on Main Street and depression on Wall St.

Reuters writes that Microsoft (MSFT) may spend as much as $1.5 billion to retain Yahoo! (YHOO) employees.

Reuters wrtes that Rockefeller family members are pushing for governance changes at Exxon (XOM).

The Wall Street Journal writes that an investigation of Countrywide (CFC) is turning up information showing sale people overlooked inflated income from borrowers.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Iraq may have a $70 billion wind-fall from higher oil prices.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Starbucks (SBUX) will unveil two new drink lines.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Citigroup (C) will sell $3 billion in new stock.

The Wall Stree Journal writes that GM (GM) now faces more obstacles than Ford (F) does.

The New York Times writes that farmers are facing a shortage in fertilizer

The FT writes that one senior bank regulator says the US should fight the housing crisis by using low-cost government loans to help borrowers pay down unaffordable mortgages.

The FT reports that the Treasury is seeking broader powers for the Fed.

The FT reports that Dubai has warned the EU over restricting investments by sovereign funds.

Bloomberg reports that Siemens (SI) profits dropped 68%.

FSLR earnings were good but the response is muted thus far in premarket.
First Solar-FSLR reports Q1 EPS 57c vs. consensus of 47c.
Reports Q1 revenue $196.9M vs. consensus of $183.64M.
FSLR: Solid Qtr, see Street estimates moving higher@COWN
Cowen said there is room for Street estimates to move higher given the faster ramp of new factories and market share gains in 2010. Shares are Outperform rated.

The ADP Employment report for April showed the private sector of the economy added 10,000 jobs. The forecast was for a decline of -60,000.

Brinks-BCO reports Q1 EPS $1.02 vs. consensus of 79c
Reports Q1 revenue $920.6M vs. consensus $842.30M.
Great results with a positive follow through in premarket.

NYX & NDAQ: Growing incrementally more cautious@BOFA
BofA said it is growing incrementally more cautious on NYX and NDAQ given slowing April volumes, market share erosion, and an accelerating pricing war. The firm prefers Buy rated ICE due to best in class fundamentals and leverage to energy/agriculture. Shares of NYX and NDAQ are Neutral rated.

X: Estimates & target raised to $173 from $150@GSCO
Goldman continues to expect shares of US Steel to move higher. Shares are Buy rated.
Let’s see how steel and X react to the GS upgrade.

Urban Outfitters-URBN upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform@RAJA

HAL added to Conviction Buy List; maintain Buy@GSCO
Note that PDE was removed from the list.

FLS: 1Q EPS upside; margins driven by increased sales volume@FBRC
The firm raised their 2008/09 EPS estimates as well as their 2008/09 sales estimates as the anticipate the company’s strong business trends will continue generated mainly by their power, energy and process businesses. Target price increased to $124 from $101 with a Market Perform rating maintained.

Grain companies reap huge profits-WSJ
It is the best of times for a number of big agricultural companies as they report very profitable quarterly results, according to the Wall Street Journal, including Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Monsanto (MON) and Deere & Co. (DE). Adding to their good fortune is the increasing use of crops for bio fuels, something critics want stopped. To offset negative reactions, some food companies plan to help develop technology to improve crop efficiencies.

CMI reports Q1 EPS 97c vs. consensus of 89c
Reports Q1 revenue $3.47B vs. consensus of $3.33B.
CMI could see some early action today off of good numbers.

HES reports Q1 EPS $2.34 vs. consensus of $2.01
Reports Q1 revenue $10.72B vs. consensus of $10.55B.
Let’s keep an eye on this.

ITRI: Expectations are for company to meet ests after close today@SPHN
Target price $115 and Overweight rating maintained.

GRMN reports Q1 EPS 67c vs. consensus of 75c
Reports Q1 revenue $664M vs. consensus of $712.91M.
Could see some action this morning off of weak numbers.

AT&T to cut price of iPhone by $200 - Fortune
When Apple (AAPL) introduces the 3G iPhone this summer, AT&T (T) is expected to subsidize the cost by $200 in an effort to make the iPhone more available to a wider consumer market, according to a source familiar with the strategy. The $200 rebate or subsidy would be limited to AT&T customers but not through Apple stores. Both companies declined to comment.

MasterCard-MA: Estimates and target raised to $310 from $254@BEST
Following the strong Q1 report, Bear raised MasterCard estimates based on expectations of better revenue margins and operating margins.

WFR downgraded to Neutral from Overweight@JPMS
JP Morgan downgraded WFR citing high Street expectations and a very tight capacity expansion schedule over the next few quarters.

Petrobras CEO says Brazilian oil field has “huge” potential-FT
Petrobras (PBR) CEO Sergio Gabrielli is cautiously optimistic about the company’s Carioca oil field, located off the Brazilian coast. The potential reserves in the field could be “huge”, and Petrobras is not expected to face “insurmountable challenges” in obtaining the oil, Gabrielli said. The company should obtain more information about the oil field’s potential in about three months, he added.

AKAM: Trends suggest Q1 was solid, maintain Buy@STFG
Stanford believes that financial results from Equinix (EQIX), and the ad rates and viewership from March Madness suggest that traffic is extremely high and growing quickly. As a result, the firm predicts that Akamai’s revenue will be slightly higher than expected, and they view the stock as a core holding for technology investors.

Fast Money position update- Karen likes MO on the dip, Pete likes BIIB on the dip, Guy likes DOG, two days in a row, Jeff thinks C is a sell. Macke Owns (INTC), (ATVI), (MSFT), (DIS); Najarian Owns (AAPL), (TSO), (YHOO), (XLF);Najarian Owns (CHK) Calls, (MSFT) Calls, (POT) Calls; Finerman’s Firm Owns (GE); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (FLS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MO), (MSFT), (PM), (TSO) (VLO); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (GLD), (IYR), (MDY), (IWM), (RTY), (SPY), (COF), (SPG); Finerman’s Firm Owns A Bullish Call Spread In (YHOO) And Owns (YHOO) Stock; Finerman’s Firm Is Short The British Pound.

Focusing on the earnings plays this morning with gap trades, FSLR, HES, CMI, NOV, GRMN, BCO. I’ll be hawking the 4 Horsemen + BIDU again, GS and the financials, technology, MA and V, the AG’s and energy. Stay positive, focused on your goals and trade methodically. Pick plays with high probability of success and look for great setups. Great trading and good luck!
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