Premarket Analysis for 4/29- Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Andy Wang

Submitted By Optiondragon

The Killers - All These Things That I Have Done -UK Version

From briefing.com
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Media Digest 4/29/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg by 24/7 Wallst.
According to Reuters, Cadbury is looking at buying Hershey.

Reuters writes that banks being sued by Clear Channel (CCU) have asked for a delay of a Texas trial.

Reuters reports that share of Visa (V) fell on quarterly results

Reuters reports that Lewis Ranieri who helped create the current mortgage market says that house prices are off more than most analysts think.

Reuters writes that the Fed is thinking about paying interest on bank reserves.

Reuters reports that big US media companies are expected to have good first quarters because of their cable properties.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the CEO of Calpers will step down.

The Wall Street Journal also writes that a former senior Fed official blasted the bail-out of Bear Stearns (BSC).

The Wall Street Journal writes that airlines are trying to push their fares up.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the Fed will propose new and tighter policies for issuing credit cards.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Take-Two’s (TTWO) Grand Theft Auto IV game is expected to post record sales.

The Wall Street Journal reports that GM (GM) will idle some of its truck and SUV plants.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the FDA turned down a major new Merck (MRK) drug.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Blockbuster (BBI) is seeking a stake in Viacom’s (VIA) new premium cable TV venture.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Citigroup (C) may cover some of the losses at two hedge funds.

The Wall Street Journal writes that circulation at most large newspapers dropped sharply.

The New York Times writes that rising oil prices are not stimulating new production.

The New York Times reports that United (UAUA) is in merger talks with US Airways (LCC).

The New York Times writes that the WB TV network will return as a website.

The FT reports that Deutsche Bank (DB) had its first loss in five years.

The FT writes that the Saudis will launch a $5.3 billion sovereign fund.

The FT writes that the Rockefeller family is pushing for Exxon (XOM) to have a more independent board.

Bloomberg reports that profits at BP (BP) rose sharply.

Excellent results from MA smashing estimates.
MasterCard-MA reports Q1 EPS $3.01 vs. consensus of $2.00.
Reports Q1 revenue $1.2B vs. consensus $1.07B

Potash-POT downgraded to Outperform from Top Pick@RBCM
RBC Capital downgraded POT as they advise taking some profits. Target $300.
This further pressuring shares and adding to the recent technical weakness.

VMW initiated with an Overweight, target $62@TWPT
Thomas Weisel believes VMW is uniquely positioned to benefit from trends toward centralized IT resources, on-demand delivery and greater efficiency.

V had earnings last night.
V reports Q2 EPS 52c vs. consensus of 55c
Reports Q2 revenue $1.5B vs. consensus of $1.49B.

V: Solid Qtr, payment volumes strong, buy on weakness@WCHV
The firm expects some weakness in shares as investors take profits but said any weakness would only “strengthen our conviction on the stock.” Shares are Outperform rated.

CHL downgraded to Neutral from Buy@GSCO

Grand Theft Auto IV releases today, record sales expected-WSJ
The long awaited release of video game Grand Theft Auto IV is here and the focus will also be on its publisher, Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), hungry for a higher bid from Electronic Arts (ERTS), which is pursuing a $2B hostile offer for Take-Two. Predictions for first week sales of Grand Theft are over $400M, according to the Wall Street Journal.

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open as investors await the beginning of the FOMC meeting which starts today and ends tomorrow. The Fed is expected to cut rates by .25%, but more importantly investors will be waiting to see if they signal an end to the current rate cut trend. It’s believed that the Fed will take a breather from their strategy of cutting rates to wait for their past actions to filter through the economy and see whether their strategy has worked.

CMI volatility Elevated at 58 into Q1 EPS
CMI closed at $58.02. CMI is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on April 30. CMI May option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

CNX upgraded to Buy from Neutral@MLCO
Merrill upgraded CNX based on higher coal prices. Target $100.

FLS: 1Q EPS exceeded ests with excellent organic order growth@BARD
The firm increased their 2008/09 EPS estimates and price target to $130 and finds management’s guidance to be conservative given the company’s acceleration in aftermarket sales and strong order growth. Based on valuation, the firm has maintained their Neutral rating.

FSLR: Found projects in U.S. with company’s modules@PACS
Pacific Crest reports that they identified six projects in the U.S. that utilize First Solar’s modules. The projects are worth about $22M, which is not material to revenues, but the firm thinks the company is setting the stage for future U.S. expansion. They maintained their Outperform rating.

X reports Q1 EPS $1.98 vs. consensus of $1.82
Reports Q1 revenue $5.2B vs. consensus of $5.09B.
X sees Q2 segment income from operations ‘well above’ Q1.

PCX reports Q1 EPS (12c) vs. consensus of 16c [1 estimate]
Reports Q1 revenue $284.3M vs. consensus of $305.8M.
PCX sees FY08 EPS 95c-$1.30 vs. consensus of $1.30.
Disappointing results.

WYNN: Q1 estimate & target lowered, maintain Buy@DBAB
Deutsche lowered WYNN Q1 EPS estimate to 59c from 65c due to Las Vegas revenue trends. The firm raised Macau YoY growth to 62% for Q1. Target to $162 from $166.

CSCO: Expect in-line Qtr with cautious oultook@BOFA
BofA expects CSCO to report Non-GAAP EPS of 36c and revenue of $9.75B. The firm expects cautious US Enterprise market commentary and potential weakness in emerging markets. Shares are Neutral rated.

Rogers Communicatoins to bring Apple-AAPL’s iPhone to Canada
Ted Rogers, President and Chief Executive Officer of Rogers Communications Inc. today issued the following statement: We’re thrilled to announce that we have a deal with Apple to bring the iPhone to Canada later this year. We can’t tell you any more about it right now, but stay tuned.

Louis Navellier’s Global Update
Louis Navellier’s Global Update is positive on ANW and cautious on KOF and VIP.
Louis Navellier’s Quantum Growth Update is positive on AUO, ITU, and GTLS; cautious on CF, FSTR, NEU, TNE, and WDC.

Fast Money position update- First Moves- Tim thinks shorting PBR, Guy likes DOG with a tight stop, Karen likes KALU, Jeff likes USO. Macke Owns (MSFT), (DIS), (INTC), (ATVI); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (EEM), (F), (HAL), (INTC), (MSFT), (TSO), (DUG); Seygem Asset Management Owns (GFA), (PBR); Finerman’s Firm And Finerman Own (FLS), (HD), (KALU); Finerman’s Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO); Finerman’s Firm Owns A Bullish Call Spread In (YHOO) And Owns (YHOO) Stock; Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY), (COF); Finerman’s Firm Is Short The British Pound.

I’ll be watching for further weakness in the agriculture names on the POT downgrade and technical weakness (POT, CF, MOS, IPI). MA and V should be volatile movers this morning. Watching X and the steel names on how they react to X earnings. Could be a muted session due to the Fed meeting. Focus on your goals, stay positive, pick plays with high probability of success and great setups. Good Luck and great trading!!!
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