Premarket Analysis for 3/31 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Andy Wang

Submitted By Optiondragon

Silversun Pickups - Lazy Eye

From Briefing.com
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According to Reuters, the Treasury Department will announce a proposed major overhaul of the US financial regulatory system.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Lehman (LEH) lost $350 million in a fraud and will sue Japanese company Marubeni.

The Wall Street Journal writes that US stock markets are doing better than most exchanges in other countries.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Google (GOOG) and DoubleClick now dominate the ad serving market.

The New York Times writes that several groups have attacked Wal-Mart’s (WMT) claims about how much it saves consumers.

The New York Times writes that the number of people using food stamps will hit a record this year.

The New York Times reports that Wall St. is nervous that there will be another financial catastrophe involving debt instruments which have not gotten into trouble yet.

The FT writes that investors have pulled almost $100 billion out of equity funds in the first quarter.

Bloomberg writes that Citigroup (C) will separate its credit card unit from its consumer bank.

Bank of America, says that the Apple iPhone 3G product will be out in a few weeks. According to AppleInsider “financial analyst Scott Craig points to channel investigations which show an iPhone capable of faster, third-generation cellular Internet access produced in small numbers in May.”

Chesapeake Energy increases FY08 and FY09 production guidance discloses in 8-K (CHK) 45.50 : In an 8-K, the co increased FY08 and FY09 production guidance to 10,700 mbbls and 11,000 mbbls respectively. The co sees natural gas production of 798-808 bcf in FY08 and 924-944 bcf in FY09 and daily natural gas equivalent midpoint of 2,307 mmcfe in FY08 and 2,740 mmcfe in FY09.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is trading up +11.0% after better than expected earnings reported before the bell. Food stocks have been of interest lately, keep an eye on this sector, CAG, CALM, GIS, KFT, TSN, WWY, HRL, CQB, MKC, DLM, FLO, K

AMAT, KLAC, & NVLS: CY08 capex estimates cut@RBCM
RBC Capital lowered its CY08 capex estimates to down 26% from down 21% due to continued weakness in the memory area. The firm recommends avoiding SCE stocks but continues to like Outperform rated NVLS on weakness.

MRO downgraded to Average from Above Average, target $51@CRIS
Caris downgraded the stock because they believe the company’s refining margins will remain low this year due to depressed gasoline demand and increased ethanol blending.

NCC 2008 estimate lowered to 30c from $1.47@JPMS
After meeting with the company, JP Morgan believes NCC has two paths to explore: raise further capital to cover losses or sell the company. Given the company’s large increase in credit losses, JP Morgan thinks major steps are needed.

SGP: Down on Vytorin Recommendation
The shares are down (-21%) on the panel recommendation published in the NEJM that Vytorin failed to provide superior results compared to statins. Vytorin is a combination of Merck’s (MRK) Zocor and Schering-Plough’s (SGP) Zetia.

DV: Sell-off appears overdone, reiterate Overweight@LEHM
Lehman believes weakness related to weak APOL results are overblown and that APOL related concerns are largely comany specific. The firm has a higher degree of confidence in DV’s margin turnaround.
Watch to see if further weakness pesists in the education names, STRA, APOL, DV, ESI, CECO, COCO

AMD: Checks suggest challenging March quarter@BOFA
Banc of America’s checks indicate AMD’s March quarter was more challenging than originally thought due to several factors, including share loss at Hewlett-Packard and a weaker product line-up vs. Intel’s (INTC). Banc of America believes AMD is likely to miss its goal of turning an operating profit by 2H08 and reiterate a Sell rating on the stock.

GOOG: Q1 estimates lowered on paid click deceleration@SBSH
Citigroup lowered their Q1 EPS estimate to $4.50 and target price to $600 from $625 to reflect more evidence of a deceleration in paid clicks. However, their channel checks do not support comScore’s dramatic growth deceleration. Citigroup reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.

Solar: Chinese poly production expansion moving slower than expected@LYON
Calyon’s checks confirm that Chinese polysilicon production expansion is going slower than expected and that there will not be market equilibrium before 2010. The firm reiterated its Buy ratings for FSLR, ENER, SPWR, and ESLR.

RIO: Recommend buying shares at current levels@SBSH
Citigroup views the recent pullback in shares as a buying opportunity and reiterates a Buy rating with a $43 target.

US Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks on US banks, financial markets at 10am ET 3/31

AAPL: Maintain 45M iPhone estimate by end of 2009@PIPR
Piper believes new iPhone models with more features and a lower ASP will drive significant unit growth. They expect AAPL to introduce a 3G iPhone model with additional features in the next 3-6 months and an entire family of iPhones (2-3 separate models) by January 2009. Shares remain Buy rated.

Cramer likes AMAG and says its a shoe-in for FDA approval. Biotechman says its FDA approval date is on Oct. 19. Will keep you posted.

UBS, with new write-downs possible, may ask shareholders for more capital-WSJ
The UBS annual meeting is April 23. After $18B in write-downs, company chairman Marcel Ospel and CEO Marcel Rohner, are facing another $70B in problematic assets on its books. Some analysts expect additional write-downs of about 15B Swiss francs in the first quarter. How to protect itself? Some say UBS should raise more capital, while others don’t think its necessary. The bank remains well capitalized. On Wednesday, its shareholder meeting agenda will be posted. :

Fast Money updated positions including Gartman- Jon Najarian Owns (AAPL), (AG), (AGU), (BG), (COST), (DAL), (DE), (JWN), (MO), (MON),  (MOS), (NOK), (NTRI), (NVDA), (POT), (RIMM), (TSO), (AET), (WCG); Jon Najarian Is Short (APOL), (TGT), (LEH), (MRK); Pete Najarian Owns (AAPL), (BIIB), (CSCO), (EMC), (ORCL), (TSO), (XLF), (YHOO), (MSFT),  (NOK), (BKC); Pete Najarian Owns (LEH) Puts. (MER) Puts, (OIH) Puts; Pete Najarian Owns (BSC) Calls, (COP) Calls, (NVDA) Calls; Macke Owns (YHOO), (INTC), (DIS), (EMC); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman’s Firm Owns (DSW), (JCP), (MSFT), (MO), (MSFT), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO), (WMT), (YHOO); Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY)

Gartman Owns (NFLX), (PCU), (AAPL), (JPM) (HOV), (UNG), (SDS), (DCR), (AAPL); Gartman Is Short (WFMI), (WGO), (GS): CIBC Gartman Index Owns Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Gold, Sugar: CIBC Gartman Index Is Long The EUR: CIBC Gartman Index Is Short U.S. Equities

Let the market dictate your chosen strategy. Stay positive and adhere to your discipline. Seek the zone and focus on the goal.
Good luck and great trading.
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