Premarket Analysis for 10/28 - Upgrades/Downgrades, Gappers, Actionable Calls

Submitted By Andy Wang

Posted by Optiondragon for myhappytrading.com

From Briefing.com
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Periodicals Wrap-Up for Tuesday, October 28th
WALL STREET JOURNAL: In a move that can ease the way for a discussed merger between General Motors (GM) and Chrysler, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Bush administration is working to release to GM a portion of the loans Congress approved for the auto industry, a source familiar said…The Wall Street Journal also reported that if the Treasury Department’s capital-infusion program expands to the insurance sector, insurers could be pushed into mergers…IBD: One place where sales are still percolating are at Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Investor’s Business Daily’s “The New America” reported. Not only have sales increased at double digit rates for 11 straight quarters, but the company’s purchase of the Tully’s coffee brand for $40.3M, which is expected to close in December, gives it another boost…NEW YORK TIMES: In recent weeks, Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt has hinted that the company is looking to the energy sector as a potential business opportunity. In addition to a collaboration with General Electric (GE) CEO Jeffrey Immelt on policies and technologies aimed at improving the electricity grid, the New York Times reported that Google engineers are hoping to soon unveil tools to help consumers make better decisions about their energy use…

Asian Markets Wrap-up for Tuesday, October 28
Stocks rose in a majority of Asian countries, as bargain hunters bought stocks whose values have dropped sharply in previous days. JAPAN: The Nikkei 225 surged 6.41%, to 7,621.92. Isuzu (ISUZY) jumped 21%. Nippon Steel (NISTY) also gained 21% and JFE Holdings (JFEEF), another steel company, advanced 16%. Kao Corp. (KCRPY), which makes household products, rallied 8.3%. A number of real estate companies fell, with Mitsubishi Estate and Sumitomo Realty (SURDF) both dropping 12%. CHINA The CSI 300 Index climbed 3.09% to 1,705.82. Bank of Nanjing surged 10%, while Shanghai Pudong Development and Bank of Beijing both jumped 9.9%. Citic Securities rose 8.3% and Haitong Securities climbed 10%. China Vanke (CVKEF) dropped 1.5% after reporting that its Q3 earnings slumped 13%. AROUND ASIA: South Korea’s KRX 100 advanced 4.97% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index soared 14.35%, but Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell 4.72%….Honda Motor (HMC) reported that its Q2 profits plunged 41% year-over-year.

U.S. equity markets continue to point a a higher open
Stocks continue to point to a sharply higher open. The sharp rise is to be expected given the extreme volatility that has marked Wall Street over the past several weeks. The Federal Reserve begins its two day meeting today to discuss the direction of interest rates. Interest rates have fallen on Treasury securities as investors rushed to a flight for safety. The overnight Libor rate continues to drop in a ongoing sign of an easing in the credit markets. Investors will receive data today on consumer confidence and manufacturing as well as home prices

Analysts Upgrade Summary for Tuesday, October 28th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Integra LifeSciences (IART), Choice Hotels (CHH) and major airline carriers were today’s noteworthy upgrades: Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Integra LifeSciences to Outperform from Perform on valuation, the company’s minimal exposure to economic conditions, and expectations for margin improvement and a rebound in organic growth. JP Morgan upgraded Choice Hotels to Neutral from Underweight following the better-than-expected Q3 report. Calyon upgraded major network carriers based on falling oil prices and capacity cuts. The analyst is positive over the next 12 months but cautious short-term given the uncertain economy, and volatile markets and oil prices. AMR Corp (AMR) and Delta (DAL) were upgraded to Add from Neutral and UAL (UAUA) was raised to Neutral from Reduce…OTHER UPGRADES: Ryanair (RYAAY) was upgraded at Citigroup to Buy from Hold. Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank. Cowen lifted Biogen Idec (BIIB) to Outperform from Neutral.

Analysts Downgrade Summary for Tuesday, October 28th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: AmeriCredit (ACF), ION Geophysical (IO) and Embarq (EQ) were today’s noteworthy downgrades: Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of AmeriCredit to Underperform from Market Perform following the Q1 earnings beat, as they are incrementally cautious on the company’s outlook given economic deterioration. Jefferies cut ION Geophysical to Hold from Buy and lowered the target to $6.50 from $16 as they believe the company’s land equipment business will be negatively impacted by conservative capital spending. UBS downgraded Embarq to Neutral from Buy following the CenturyTel (CTL) merger announcement…OTHER DOWNGRADES: PCTEL (PCTI) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Baird. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) and AerCap Holdings (AER) were downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.

Analysts Initiation Summary for Tuesday, October 28th
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intuit (INTU), Andersons (ANDE) and New York Times (NYT) were today’s noteworthy initiations: Banc of America initiated Intuit with a Neutral rating and $27 target. The firm wants to make sure Street estimates reflect macro risks before becoming positive on the stock. Soleil assumed Andersons with a Hold rating and $33 target and prefers a conservative approach to shares with pricing in the agriculture space coming off elevated levels. Citigroup initiated New York Times with a Sell rating and $7 target and believes the company’s “best” internet offering among peers is not enough to offset the premium valuation…OTHER INITIATIONS: Babcock & Brown (FLY) was started with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. Google (GOOG) was initiated with an Outperform rating and $400 target and Yahoo! (YHOO) was assumed with a Neutral rating at Credit Suisse.

Earthquake in Iran may have been a nuclear bomb test-Israel Insider
An earthquake last weekend in southern Iran may have been an underground nuclear bomb test. The source was an Iranian nuclear scientist said to be working on uranium enrichment for the project. A map of the test site was published before the seismic event. Another source says that it was actually a second test. Israeli and other sources have speculated that Iran would only begin testing nuclear bombs when a full production line for nuclear weapons was ready.

Solar: SPWRA, ENER, ESLR & SOLR downgraded at UBSW
UBS lowered global solar demand estimates based on residential customer uncertainty. The firm downgraded SPWRA to Sell from Neutral and ESLR, ENER, adn SOLR to Neutral from Buy.

First Solar-FSLR share weakness from here a buying opportunity, says Citigroup
Citigroup sees EPS risk to Q4 and Q1 Street estimates due mostly due to currency, but would use any weakness from current levels to aggressively buy the stock. The firm lowered their target to $205 from $450 but reiterates a Buy rating on shares.

Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money”
Cramer said Monday night that the U.S. markets, while it lost 38.3% of its value so far this year, it pales in comparison to the losses suffered by China, Russia and Brazil. Those markets are down 70%, 75% and 52% respectively year to date. Cramer gave two reasons for the disparity: First, the international markets simply have had further to fall. Second, the U.S. dollar, now “the strongest currency in the world,” is making U.S. stocks more attractive to foreign investors. Cramer said high-yielding dividend stocks have become the flight-to-quality play for foreign investors. He noted Altria (MO), Pepsi (PEP) and Verizon (VZ) as the perfect safe havens. Cramer said he’s also warming up to the regional banks, now flush with cash thanks to Uncle Sam. He mentioned BB&T (BBT) as one of his favorites. Next, Cramer talked about US Steel (X), which trades at a paltry two-times earnings. During the day on Monday, UBS lowered its earnings estimates for US Steel to just $5 a share. Cramer said the remaining 10 analysts of the stock still rate it a buy or hold and have earnings pegged at an average of 2.5 times that of the new UBS estimates. Cramer warned that US Steel is bracing for a wave of downgrades and earnings cuts that will likely pulverize the stock even harder. Even U.S. Steel’s 3.5% dividend yield may not be safe, he said. Then Cramer talked about the coal stocks. With disappointing earnings out from industry giant Arch Coal (ACI), “none of the coal stocks are safe”, says Cramer. Cramer said it’ll be only a matter of time before worldwide demand slows, accelerated by a stronger dollar. MAD MAIL: recession-resistant stocks like Covance (CVD) should still be bought on weakness, despite recent declines. Cramer said, stay away from Goodyear (GT) because it is a cyclical play that’s levered to autos. LIGHTNING ROUND: (Bullish) FWLT; JNJ; PEG; ED; DUK; FCX. (Bearish) V; MET; WX; MVL; WFR.

Fast Money position recap: Adami Owns (AGU)(BTU)(C)(GS)(INTC)(MSFT)(NUE) — Macke Owns (MCD)(WMT)(MSFT)(SDS)(UUP) — Pete Najarian Owns (INTC) And Is Short (INTC) Calls, (MGM) And Is Short (MGM) Calls, (MS) Put Spread — Jon Najarian Owns (UBS)(FCX) Calls, (SU) Calls — Finerman’s Firm Is Short (IYR)(IJR)(MDY)(SPY)(IWM)(BBT)(COF) — Finerman Owns (GS) — Finerman’s Firm Owns (JNJ)(MRK)(MSFT)(SUN) — Finerman’s Firm Is Short (USO) — Gartman Owns (FXE) And Is Short (FXY) — CIBC Gartman Index Is Long The Australian Dollar And Is Short The Euro



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