Moody's "Bottom Rung" List Implicates 283 Potential Dead Man Walking Companies
Submitted By Trader Mark
Upon further reflection there is such extreme irony to yesterday's rally. Front and center in yesterday's Wall Street Journal was a story about the government's "contingency" plans (read: eventuality) to take much starker measures to "save" Citigroup (C) (this would be rescue 32,128 for those keeping track at home). All the while the market surges on comments from Citigroup's CEO that it's doing just fine thank you.*
* just fine in today's day and age means as long as you exclude all bad things, we are doing just fine
The memo says they are making money hand over fist (as they should when you can borrow money thanks to Federal Reserve for near nothing and then lend to Americans for a lot more than near nothing).... but it leaves out the small issue of all the current/previous toxic stash on their sheets. (soon to be owned by you, Mr Taxpayer) That would be like me saying, I've had the best month ever in trading..... as long as you exclude losses! But it goes to show you why the news flow usually means nothing on a day to day basis - if the market wants to go up, it will find an excuse; or vice versa. Headline writers for financial news sites or newspapers, and cable TV hosts just need to find "reasons" hence the spin.
Another interesting item that came out yesterday was Moody's "Bottom Rung" list - essentially a list of 283 companies that have a very high chance to default. It is quite nice of Moody's to finally be doing their job, as opposed to being complicit in the carnage that brought down our financial system. (hey if you bundle 1000 subprime loans together, we'll give it a AAA rating - I mean what's the risk in that? Now pay us!) Since we're talking about ironies I bet the public companies on this list were among the biggest percentage gainers yesterday... remember, for traders junk is treasure on oversold bounces. (watch those shorts get squeeeeezed) Many of the sectors represented are areas we've been railing against just about from blog inception in mid 2007. Where was Moody's then? Ah yes, fees were to be had - can't make the companies mad by speaking the truth (after all THEY pay the fox to run the hen house)
- Moody's Investors Service published a new list on Tuesday called the Bottom Rung, which details companies that the ratings agency says are most likely to default on their debts. Moody's estimates that 45 percent of the companies on the list with default on debt in the next year. Defaulting on debt does not necessarily mean bankruptcy; it can also include missing something such as a debt payment.
- Nearly every sector of the economy is represented on the list. Dominant industries on the list include most of the U.S. auto industry, retail chains, newspapers, casinos, broadcast TV, and radio station networks. Airlines, restaurant chains, and energy firms also appear on the list often.
Below is the list of names - if you want more comprehensive coverage ZeroHedge has the full document with the nasty details. One of our holdings is down there - James River Coal (JRCC); but that is more of a proxy play on "China will save the whole world, buy commodities" rather than any adoration for the company.
p.s. what exactly does Eastman Kodak do nowadays? Can anyone say Betamax?
155 East Tropicana Accellent Inc Accuride Corporation ACIH Inc. Advanced Micro Devices Inc Advanstar Communications Inc Affinity Group Holding Inc AGS LLC AirTran Holdings Inc. Alion Science and Technology Corp. Allbritton Communications Company Allison Transmission Inc Alon USA Energy Inc American Achievement Group Holding Corp. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. American Media Operations Inc. Ames True Temper Inc. AMH Holdings Inc. AMR Corporation Arby's Restaurant Group Inc. Arinc Incorporated Atlantic Express Transportation Corp. Autocam Corporation Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc. Baker & Tayler Acquisitions Corp. Barneys New York Inc Barrington Broadcast Group LLC BCBG Max Azria Group Inc. Beverages & More Inc Blockbuster Inc. Bluegreen Corporation Bonten Media Group Inc. Bon-Ton Stores Inc. Bowater Incorporated Brigham Exploration Company Broder Bros. Co. Brookstone Company Inc. Buffalo Thunder Development Authority Builders FirstSource Inc. Building Materials Corporation of America Building Materials Holding Corporation Burlington Coat Factor Warehouse Corp. Cambium Learning Inc. Canon Communications LLC Caraustar Industries Inc. Carmike Cinemas Inc. CavTel Holdings LLC CCM Merger Inc. CCS Medical Inc. Centaur LLC Center Cut Hospitality Inc Champion Enterprises Inc. Chaparral Energy Inc. Charter Communications Inc. Chem Rx Corporation Chemtura Corporation Chiquita Brands International Inc. Chrysler LLC Circus and Eldorado Join Venture Citadel Broadcasting Corporation Claire's Stores Inc. Clearwire Communications LLC Cleveland Unlimited Inc. CMP Susquehanna Corp. Coach America Holdings Inc. Coinmach Service Corp. Commercial Vehicle Group inc. Conexant Systems Inc. Continental Alloys & Services Inc. Cooper Standard Automotive Inc. Culligan International Company Cumulus Media Inc. DAE Aviation Holdings Inc. Dana Holding Corporation Dayton Superior Corporation DeCrane Aerospace inc. DEI Holdings Inc. Delta Petroleum Corporation Destination Maternity Corporation Diagnostic Imaging Group LLC Dole Food Company Inc. Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. Downstream Development Authority Duane Reade Inc. Dune Energy Inc. Eastman Kodak Company Easton-Bell Sports Inc. Eddie Bauer Inc. El Pollo Loco Inc. Electrical Components International Inc. Emmis Communications Corporation Endurance Business Media Inc. Energy Partners Ltd. Energy XXI Gulf Coast Inc. EnviroSolutions Holdings Inc. Euramax International Inc. Eurofresh Inc. Evergreen International Aviation Inc. Evergreen Tank Solutions Inc. Finlay Fine Jewelry Corporation Fleetwood Enterprises Inc. Fontainebleau Las Vegas Holdings LLC Ford Motor Company FoxCO Acquisition Sub LLC Freedom Communications Inc. Freescame Semiconductor Inc. French Lick Resorts & Casino LLC Frontier Drilling Gastar Exploration USA Inc. GateHouse Media Operating Inc. GenCorp Inc. General Motors Corporation Georgia Gulf Corporation Global Crossing Ltd. Gold Toe Moretz Holdings Corp. Golden Nugget Inc. Grande Communications Holdings Inc. Gray Television Inc. Green Valley Ranch Gaming LLC Guitar Center Holdings Inc. Haights Cross Communications Inc. Hanely Wood LLC Harrah's Entertainment Inc. Harry & David Hawker Beechcraft Acquisition Company LLC Hilite International Inc. HLI Operating Company Inc. Hollywood Theaters inc. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Human Touch LLC Idearc Inc. Indalex Holding Corp. Indianapolis Downs LLC Inn of the Mountain Gods Resort and Casino Instant Web Inc. Intcomex Inc. Integra Telecom Inc. Intelsat Ltd. InterDent Service Corporation International Coal Group Inc. IPS Corporation Jacuzzi Brands Corp. James River Coal Company JetBlue Airways Corp. JHCI Acquisitions Inc. Jobson Medical Information LLC Keystone Automotive Operations Inc. Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation Landmark FBO LLC Lazy Days' RV Center Inc. Lear Corporation Level 3 Communications Inc. Libbey Glass inc. LifeCare Holdings inc. Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians Local TV Finance LLC Lodgenet Interactive Corporation MACTEC Inc. MAPCO Express Inc. Mark IV Industries Inc. Mattress Holdings Corp. MediaNews Group inc. Metaldyne Corporation MetoKote Corporation MGM MIRAGE Michaels Stores Inc. Milacron Inc. Millenium New Jersey Holdco LLC Morris Publishing Group LLC Motorsport Aftermarket Group Inc. MSX International Inc. MXenergy Holdings Inc. NBC Acquisition Corp. Neenah Foundry Company Neff Corp. NES Rentals Holdings Inc. Newark Group Inc. Newport Television Holdings Inc. Nexstar Finance Holdings Inc. NextMedia Operating Inc. Novamerican Steel Finco Inc. November 2005 Land Investors LLC NTK Holdings Inc. Open Solutions Inc. Orbitz Worldwide Inc. Oriental Trading Company Inc. OSI Restaurant Partners Inc. Palm Inc. Panavision Inc. Panolam Industries International Inc. Parallel Petroleum Corp. Pegasus Solutions Inc. Penhall Holding Company Penton Business Media Holdings Inc. Perkins & Marie Callender's Inc. Ply-Gem Industries Inc. Primus Telecommunications Group Incorporated Quality Distribution LLC Quality Home Brands Holdings LLC Quantum Corporation Questex Media Group Inc. Quiksilver Inc. R.H. Donnelly Corporation Radio One Inc. Rafaella Apparel Group Inc. Rare Restaurant Group LLC RathGibson Inc. Reader's Digest Association Inc. Real Mex Restaurants inc. Realogy Corporation Regent Broadcasting LLC Renfro Corporation Revere Industries LLC Rhodes Companies LLC Rite Aid Corporation Riviera Holdings Corporation Rotech Healthcare Inc. Roundy's Supermarkets Inc. Sagittarius Restaurants LLC Salem Communications Holding Corporation Sbarro Inc. Securus Technologies inc. Sirius XM Radio Inc. Sitel LLC Six Flags Inc. Shoqualmie Entertainment Authority Source Interlink Companies Inc. Spanish Broadcashing System Inc. St. John Knits International Incorporated Standard Motor Products Inc. Standard Steel LLC Stanley-Martin Communities LLC Station Casinos Inc. Sterigenics International Inc. Stillwater Mining Company Sunstate Equipment Co. LLC Swift Transportation Co. Inc. Synagro Technologies Inc. Synchronous Aerospace Group Targus Group International Inc. TCO Funding Corporation Telgrant Corporation Telcordia Technologies Inc. Tenneco Inc. Thermadyne Holdings Corporation Trailer Bridge Inc. True Temper Sprots Inc. Truvo Subsidiary Group TSA Stores Inc. UAL Corporation United Site Services Inc. United Subcontractors Inc. Univision Communications nic. US Airways Group Inc. US Xpress Enterprises Inc. USEC Inc. Value Creation Partners - Best Brands Veyance Technologies Inc. Viskase Companies Inc. Visteon Corporation WasteQuip Inc. Waterford Gaming LLC Western Refining Inc. White Birch Paper Company WII Components Inc. William Lyon Homes Wilton Products Inc. Wise Metals Group LLC Wm. Bolthouse Farms Inc. Wolverine Tube inc. Workflow Management Inc. WP Evenflo Holdings Inc. Xerium Technologies Inc. X-Rite Incorproated YRC Worldwide Inc.
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