Market Comments and Economic Recap from Optiondragon for 1/21/2008.

Submitted By Andy Wang

“Believe” - Lenny Kravitz- play this song while reading the article, join us on myhappytrading.com trade room, where hedge fund managers, ex-fund managers and high level option traders talk about the markets all day!

Market comments of the day from optiondragon in sequence as well as market data:

With courage you will dare to take risks, have the strength to be compassionate, and the wisdom to be humble. Courage is the foundation of integrity. –K. Nair

I’ve made about 3 trades this month….hmmmm

Larry, AAPL not sure about the ER tonight but it will be a doozy one way or the other…

WOW NTRS blew out earnings here!!!!!

Happy read email from me…got you on Seeking Alpha…they love your stuff bro!

Stocks remain higher
Stocks are higher after the first hour of trading. The markets advanced at the open and looked as if they would give up their gains until moving higher about 30 minutes into the session. Stocks are down more than -10.0% since the beginning of the year and looked as if they would test the market lows from November. At least for now it looks like the oversold condition, along with good earnings from IBM (IBM), will keep that from happening. But with many earnings surprises and economic reports still to come it may just be a matter of time

S&P Sector Watch: Mirror Day
After the first hour of trading the S&P sectors are a mirror of yesterday’s action. Financials (XLF) up +5.5% are the upside leaders while the “safety” names, notably the Consumer Staples (XLP) up +0.05%, are drastically under performing. The shedding of safety and preference for risk is evident in Energy (XLE) up +2.6%, Technology (XLK) up +2.51% and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) up +1.08%. How long the tape can stay this way given the cross-currents is an open question, especially where the Financials are concerned

Review of U.S. Economic Data for Wednesday, January 21
ICSC-Goldman’s same-store sales total for the week of January 17 increased 1.1% week-over-week, but the total decreased -1.8% year-over-year. OTHER DATA: Redbook reported that same-store sales during the week of January 17 dropped -2.3% year-over-year

Northern Trust-NTRS: Major Resistance at $55 Area
The shares jumped this morning after better than expected earnings results. The first major hurdle for the shares is the $55 area. This area was previously important support and has been resistance now for the past month. It would bullish if the shares could clear this area to the upside. In that event the following resistance levels could become additional upside objectives: $55.75, $56.60, $57.58, $58.50, $59.50. Support is currently at $53.64, $52.75, $51.94

doing scans right now……seeking a kill…..

Bullish on urea prices near-term, says Scotia Capital
Scotia Capital said urea prices should move higher near-term given the Russia/Ukraine natural gas settlement, the closure of 17 urea plants in India, and an additional 100% China urea export tariff planned for February 1. The firm said higher urea prices are positive for Agrium, (AGU), Terra (TRA) and CF Industries (CF)

Markets advance at the open
Stock futures rose in the hour before the market’s opening allowing the averages to open higher. The Johnson Redbook, which measures retail sales, showed sales for the first two weeks of January fell 2.55% versus the first two weeks of December. The number was not bad given that December is during the holiday shopping season. There was good earnings from Northern Trust (NTRS), Bank of New York (BK) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) which is helping the financial sector, and good earnings from IBM (IBM), helping the tech sector

Tim Geitner taking full responsibility of his wrong tax return…excellent, thats what you want to hear…this guy is sharp and smart and exceptionallly fit for the job….we need this guy….we need him.

You see his eyes and you listen to his words….the guy is focused….the guy knows what we need to do and at the very least Tim Geitner is experienced with the recent turmoil AND as my brother has pointed out he has made his fair share of mistakes…such as letting LEH fail…which is blood on his hands….should not have done that….we learn …we all make mistakes…who is perfect here?

AmTech announces list of favorite tech names
American Technology’s list of favorite technology stocks includes eight names: Cypress Semi (CY), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Monolithic Power (MPWR), Maxim (MXIM), NetApp (NTAP), Qualcomm (QCOM), Research in Motion (RIMM), and Verisign (VRSN). The firm believes each company enjoys a solid competitive position, balance sheet security, and attractive valuation

7:54 AM: DJT going lower…..not good….we need rails to stabilize….again it is a current economic activity indicator and future indicator of economic activity….

S&P testing previous close….Bagger doesn’t see much either….either you short the rallies or hold for 3 hour trades

General Electric-GE put volume and volatility indicating AAA and dividend risk
GE is recently down 46c to $12.47. GE is scheduled to announce Q4 EPS on January 23. GE has been frequently subject to reports of AAA rating and dividend reduction risk. GE call option volume of 42,850 contracts compares to put volume of 52,250 contracts. GE February call option implied volatility is at 91, puts are at 105; above its 26-week average of 41, according to Track Data, suggesting downside price trends

GOOG great looking chart for a spike up on a big surprise..limited on the downside IMO

Buyer’s strike….no demand right now…..institutions?

everything is decimated so the % moves are kinda misleading

Markets struggling to maintain their gains
The averages are barely higher after giving up all their gains, falling into negative territory and then crossing back into the green. Although there is a lack of economic news the major story of the day is the Capitol Hill confirmation hearings of Treasury Secretary designate Tim Geithner. Investors hope his approval can be swift as he has said President Obama’s plan for the economy will be unveiled over the next few weeks. The stumbling block to Geithner’s confirmation is his failure to pay $34,000 in taxes for which he has apologized and claimed was a mistake

bluetick thanks for the reminder on FXY haven’t looked in awhile….

Bagger says FXY skying like that bcuz FXE is tanking…..

Stocks move higher again
Stocks are higher once again. They have been mostly higher today but moved into negative territory a couple of times only to then move higher. The airline sector is lower today as both AMR Corp. (AMR) and UAL Corp. (UAUA) reported large losses. Each said that economic conditions and fuel costs were the reasons for the losses despite oil prices coming down since the summer. The shares of AMR are down more than -22.0% and UAL is down more than -9.50%. The shares of UAL had been lower but received positive comments from J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley, and the shares moved higher

Obama to ask generals for 16-month Iraq withdrawal plan-AFP
According to aides, President Barack Obama will meet with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen and the top US commander in southwest Asia, General David Petraeus today in a bid to follow through with his campaign pledge to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq within 16 months

U.S. Market Mid-Day Wrap-Up for Wednesday, January 21
The markets opened higher today on word that President Obama’s economic plan will help to rescue banks. Citibank (C) and Bank of America (BAC) were among the firms that reacted positively to that speculation. IBM (IBM) surged when its 2009 profit forecast beat analysts’ estimates. The Senate Finance Committee is holding confirmation hearings of Treasury Secretary designate Tim Geithner. At mid-day the Dow was up 55.91 to 8,005.00, the S&P was up 6.55 to 811.77, and the Nasdaq was up 14.92 to 1,455.78…MARKET NEWS: General Electric (GE) fell on concerns that it will cut its dividend and that its debt rating is at risk. General Motors (GM) was down and slipped to second place as Toyota last year became the largest car maker in the world. Apple (AAPL) is due to report quarterly earnings after today’s close and its shares moved higher. BlackRock (BLK) was down after saying its fourth quarter earnings were lower by 84%…MARKET MOVERS: Among this morning’s most active stocks were Bank of America, Citigroup, Well Fargo & Co. (WFC), General Electric, Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL).

European Markets Wrap-Up for Wednesday, January 21
Led by pharmaceutical companies and utilities, most European stocks declined…In the UK, the FTSE closed down -1.14% to 4,044.91. Elsewhere, the German DAX rose 0.19% to 4,247.78 and France’s CAC decreased -1.17% to 2,891.17…MARKET NEWS: Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said officials may start buying assets within weeks in order to loosen credit markets… GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Europe’s largest drugmaker dropped 4%, while GDF Suez SA, the world’s second largest utility, dropped 2.4%… Barclays (BCS) fell as much as 35% on speculation it may be forced to take more writedowns and be nationalized… Society Generale (SCGLY) rose as much as 9.6% after it said it will receive $2.2B in a second round of government aid to bolster capital… Ericsson (ERIC) rose 12% after it reported Q4 results. The company said it will cut 5,000 jobs, of which about 1,000 will be let go in Sweden… Fiat SpA dropped as much as 4.8% on concern that an alliance with Chrysler will jeopardize its turnaround… National benchmark indexes fell in 14 of the 18 western European markets

President Obama to institute pay freeze on senior staff members

Markets continue to be positive and are trading in a narrow range
The averages are higher and have been in a fairly narrow range for the past hour. The NAHB Housing Market Index hit another all-time low with a reading of eight versus an expected reading of nine. Each of the major indices is higher by at least 1.30%. Advancing stocks are ahead of declining stocks by a 5:4 margin, and the up volume is ahead of down volume by almost 2:1. Crude oil prices are higher by almost 2.0%, while gold is down almost -1.0%

11:15am: Market running after the swear in of the white house staff….

bluetick yeah that could be the case, yesterday the reason we went down now that ive had time to think about it was because of Noreil roubini’s new financial update which was gloomy and expected more downside and bank problems.

http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2009/01/20/roubini-banking-syst em-effectively-insolvent/

Roubini- yup he was dead on his call on the finanicial disaster early 2 years ago….

Companies reporting Before Market Open on Thursday, January 22
The more notable companies reporting tomorrow before the market open include AmeriSourceBergen (ABC), Baxter International (BAX), BB&T Corporation (BBT), CIT Group (CIT), Comerica (CMA), Consolidated Edison (ED), Exelon Corporation (EXC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), International Game Technology (IGT), Janus Capital Group (JNS), KeyCorp (KEY), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), Southwest Airlines (LUV), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB), Meredith Corporation (MDP), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), SunTrust (STI), UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP

Companies reporting After Market Close on Wednesday, January 21
The more notable companies reporting today after the market close include Apple (AAPL), Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (BNI), eBay (EBAY), Noble Corporation (NE) and SLM Corporation (SLM)

Stocks move higher
Stocks are now near their highs of the day. Each move lower was met with buying and the fact the sellers could not win the battle may have caused them to throw in the towel. Then the averages moved higher. Most of the sectors are higher as well with the exception of the utilities sector and the defensive minded consumer staples sector. The tech sector is enjoying a rally following a positive report from IBM (IBM). The sector will get a chance to improve on that when Apple (AAPL) and Ebay (EBAY) report their earnings today after the close.

Ladenburg: Nationalization of banks will never happen
Ladenburg analyst Bove believes the nationalization of banks will never happen and that it makes no sense to speculate it will. Bove believes that some entity on behalf of shareholders must demand accounting reflects the true cash flows of the banks as he believes a lack of creditability is “killing” the banking system, not loan losses

Hawking WFC, financials, GS, MS

bought WFC 17.50 feb calls at 1.90

SKF complete collapse….floortraders cheering on cnbc…..

At the market close: True, Steve Liseman of CNBC says that the market likes Tim Geitner and he knows where the “bodies” are buried……he is in the know about this whole mess as Paulson and the gang leave….



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