June is Not July and other Deep Thoughts (by Jack Handy)

Submitted By Trader Mark
Somehow I read 7/23 as earnings for Riverbed Technology (RVBD) as June 23rd. As I review my college education I remember somewhere in there that "7" does not equal June. Hence I performed premature evacuation selling Riverbed earlier this week "ahead" of earnings. Oh, it was ahead all right - but about 30 days ahead...

I was wondering who all these guys were who were piling into the name "just ahead" of earnings. Err...

RVBD is "strong like ox" so I will attempt to find a way to get back the position I exited yesterday if we get another pullback.


On a totally unrelated note - Barney Frank wants Fannie, Freddie to relax the rules on condo loans - the type of rules that would protect Fannie and Freddie (now taxpayer guaranteed and sucking up billions of taxpayers to remain solvent each quarter) from losses.

On yet another unrelated note - the National Association of Realtors and Mortgage Broker's Association is now lobbying to change the new rules putting a "chinese wall" between appraisers and those who root openly for much higher appraisals (like mortgage brokers and realtors). Literally in the boom time business would be steered to the appraiser who gave the "right" (highest) number - and by doing so, they would garner much more future business from said related parties in the real estate business. Apparently this new rule WHICH JUST WAS IMPLEMENTED, has put much more realistic appraisals out there which is hurting the ability for people to sell their homes. Which makes the realtor and mortgage broker lobby very unhappy. Reality is not part of how they want to do business.

Historically, there was no incentive to inflate appraisals. But with the rise of the mortgage brokers—many working closely with real estate agents—the business of steering appraisals to the most generous rose rapidly. By inflating appraisals, many appraisers found they could attract more referral business; some even managed to always hit the target prices given by real estate agents, which contributed significantly to the huge run-up in home prices. In 2005, more than 8,000 appraisers—roughly 10 percent of the industry—petitioned the federal government to take action against such abuses. But both Congress and the White House did nothing, allowing this rampant fraud to continue unabated.

If after the largest financial disaster in the past 80 years we have already forgotten how we got here not only before the recovery even begins but in the latter half of the downturn, it truly is just a hopeless case. We shall only keep repeating the same mistakes... in fact future tense is the wrong term, we ARE repeating the same mistakes. And all the same cast of characters are back at it. It just never changes.

On the plus side... Americans still have one thing. Soccer.



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