Fund Holdings Earnings Preview for the Week

Submitted By Trader Mark
As always we'll be looking at a smorgasbord of earnings, but with such volume it is hard for me to make time to do a daily preview. I am reviewing about 25-30 names a night in various industries to see what the "reality" is out there versus relying on government reports or the punditry spin.

For now, here are our holdings for the week; as usual I generally cut back positions going into earnings because of the 2 sided random risk. Sometimes I make exceptions. This causes us to miss those pops off of "surprises" but generally keeps us out of the way of major blow ups. Last quarter in fact we did not have a single substantial "oops our guidance is 1 cent less than the analysts wanted so our stock dropped 30% in the first 10 minutes of after hours trading". I'd like to keep it that way but probability says with 50 some long positions we will get slammed somewhere along the line....

Monday
Fertilizer makers CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS) - we know earnings will be tremendous but it is not the news, but the reaction to the news that we care about

Sohu.com (SOHU) - had tremendous earnings and guidance upgrade this morning, and the market reacted by selling it off. Again, this market simply does not reward fundamentals and until that changes it is hard to get excited by the long side. But we are going to make shopping lists of these names with extraordinary results and purchase as the market punishes them.

Tuesday
Coal name Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) - see comment above re: fertilizer. However at this point this name is going to be tied more to what Harbinger Capital does more than anything. Just like when the stock dropped from $120 to $103 within a matter of hours post buyout on "no news" (why is the SEC not looking into this type of stuff?) we will be the last to know what sort of decisions are being made behind the scenes. We'll just have to follow the price action.

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) - oil at $60, $80, $100, $120, $140; there is a shortage for their customers rigs. I realize hedge funds don't care but this is a wonderful long term story. Unless oil goes back to $18.

Wednesday
Iron/coal name Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) - see ANR comments above

Cummins Engine (CMI) - still love this name as an international powerhouse who has been in India/China well before it was the cool thing to do. Curreny will favor them as well. Unfortunately, chart is (stop me if you've heard this before) breaking down.

Thursday
Massey Energy (MEE) - another favorite in the coal space, same comments as fertilizer group. Reaction to news is important; chart needs to show better strength.

Mastercard (MA) - chart has been degrading here as well; I am praying for a "miss" or "guidance" that does not make people happy so I can load up at lower levels. No creditrisk, and an emerging global powerhouse in a world where 80%+ never have seen a credit card. Of course the crowd will fuss over the weakening US consumer - which I've argued since last fall is a BOON to this company, not a negative. Cash strapped consumers now paying for basic necessities with credit cards instead of cash means more transaction volume. That said if it continues for 2-3-4 years of course some of these customers will be going bankrupt.

Friday
None

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