ETF Rewind - Week 26 (06/26/09)

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The S&P 500 (SPY) posted a mild -0.2% loss last week, leaving it flat over the last twenty trading days. In contrast, the technology laden NASDAQ100 (QQQQ) was up +0.6%, making it the second strongest performer among the tracked ETFs, as ranked by current prices versus respective simple ten-month moving averages.

In this respect, the strongest ETF continues to be Emerging Markets (EEM), even in spite of its recent pullback. Certainly the most divergent to the downside has been the Energy sector (XLE), for which the rate of change over the last month has fallen far behind other sectors (see performance 'Relative to S&P500').

Incredibly to this trader, Week Twenty-Seven of 2009 officially kicks off the second half of the trading year. The holiday shortened week nevertheless features a busy economic calendar, including Jobs Thursday, as follows:

• Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
• Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar

While the powerful mid-week recovery may well run into the end-of-month and through the Fourth of July Holiday, some ETFs are already looking quite short-term overbought, especially Emerging Markets, Healthcare (XLV) and Small-Cap Growth (PWT). Also note that the mean-reverting VIX (Implied Options Volatility) is slightly bearishly stretched to the downside (-11.4% below its 15-day moving average). Have a Terrific Week!

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