I wanted to show a critical inflection point currently in the GLD and Gold charts, namely a key support level which will mark the boundary between a swing back to the upside or a continuation of the bear flag in development. Let’s take a look.
![]( "Gold <a href=")
GLD Jan28" src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2760/4313692861_de0d8a2c76_o.jpg" alt="" width="603" height="647" />
The critical level to watch is the $105.25 level and then the $104.50 level which reflects the following support levels:
October Swing Highs ($104.50)
December swing Lows ($105.30)
50% Fibonacci Retracement ($105.25)
Lower Daily Bollinger Band ($105.11)
This creates an expected confluence at the $105.00 level… which is where price rests currently (and is forming a mid-day doji after forming a hammer candle yesterday).
The analysis would state to watch what happens at this level, whether we do get an inflection back to the upside - which is what the support level would suggest.
However, the larger picture seems to be forming a Bear Flag pattern (similar to the Bull Flag in the US Dollar Index) which has a final price target near $100.00.
Should sellers continue to push gold (and GLD) prices lower, then we would expect to see a solid breakthrough of support - confirmed by a move under $104.50 and finally $104.00 - to trigger a sell-off to fulfill the bear flag target as shown above.
To see the ‘opposite’ of this chart, reference my prior post:
An Update on the US Dollar Index: A Bump in the Road to Complete the Bull Flag?
However this resolves, it will be the identical resolution in the Dollar (meaning, if Gold falls through support to target its bear flag price, then the Dollar will break through resistance to target its bull flag price).
For more information, along with weekly analysis on the Dollar, Gold, SP500, Crude Oil, and 10-Year Treasury Notes, become a subscriber to our Weekly Intermarket Update Service.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
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