Just a poor trade in Yingli Green Energy (YGE) - I might be the best contrary indicator in solar stocks that there is the past 18 months. We only have a 0.7% stake left from what we started in June [Jun 24: Bookkeeping - Another Try with Yingli Green Energy (YGE)] but in about 3 weeks we managed to lose a cool 20% on this batch (we had some realized gains earlier t offset this last batch; and then some smaller losses as we cut the position down as it broke support) I am exiting at $10.40; the stock bounced off the 200 day moving average and is sort of stuck in between $10 and low $11s on the chart for now. Much like the market overall there is no advantage right here as its sort of in no man's land; once it makes a decided break up or down it can be revisited. If my own history in solar is any pattern, this is the time to buy YGE! :)
Without oil as a crutch, the simple minded "oil is up, I must buy solar stocks" thesis that seems to dominate US investors mindshare doesn't work. Even though of course solar does not compete with oil. But that's been the trade for nearly 3 years.
"Reflation" is finally getting a bounce here and the computers are rushing into all oil / nat gas / metal names nilly willy. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.
We continue to flop around in the market - the range I am using is S&P 870 on the bottom and 910 on the top. Bullish north of 910, bearish below 870. Indifferent here around 900. I did clap like a joyous schoolgirl at a Jonas Bros concert this morning when Goldman "surprised" me and beat by a massive margin. My gosh $5 a share in 1 quarter, and $7B set aside just for 1st half 2009 (extrapolate to $14B) bonuses. Already well ahead of 2007's record pace of bonus capture and that's with less employees to spread the booty amongst. It's a great business having the US taxpayer implicitly backstopping you, borrowing from the Fed at nearly nothing and using that money to drive up commodities, or engaging in algorithmic high frequency trading which is now dominating day to day activity. I saw Chris Whalen said yesterday why would you NOT invest with Goldman Sachs - they have Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner lobbying for them. (when you put it that way, it sure makes sense) Plus all the things I am sure we'll never know are happening behind the scenes. Boo Yah.
Remember, a vote for CIT Group bailout is a vote to make sure Goldman does not lose on its $3B loan. Justice must be served, save CIT Group.
No position
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