Since we've cut back our cash to nil since late last week, and I don't want to lighten my short exposure at this point (unless this is "the" bounce), I'm doing some redistribution. Along with this morning's sale of Core Laboratories (CLB), I've sold 100 of 125 shares of DryShips (DRYS), as it flat lines here in no man's land. I'd like to be a buyer of this name north of resistance (low $80s) or on a return trip to $60s (current $76). Frankly if not for the (future) deep sea rig business DRYS has I'd probably just close this position out and focus on the items the shippers are transporting rather than the shippers themselves. That has generally served us well. And probably I'm "way too early" to give DryShips any valuation benefit for the rig business... I'll have to think about this one a bit further.
With this free cash I've added a bit to 3 stakes
- Mosaic (MOS) in the $136s
- Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) in the $106s
- A-Power Generation Systems (APWR) in the low $26s.
The last name bugs me - a lot. I entered the week with a mission to begin cutting down on trading/turnover since that is the one thing people bring up as a "criticism" - APWR stock spiked to near $32 yesterday and I even wrote
At this point, after quite a run last week, the stock is probably a bit ahead of itself as most of the new data points are positives, but positives for the long run and not changing any of the financials in 2008.
So I went against my judgement (it had even formed a quick double top) and said to myself - stick to the mission; don't sell - keep transaction costs down/keep turnover low. That's what 'real mutual funds' do i.e. the type that have been losing 10%+ the past year. And now I gave back the entire gain - 20% wasted away in just over a day. About $5000 in real terms given back to the market gods. Buy and hold - bah. Not in this market.
Anyhow, while that is unfortunate I've kept long/short exposure consistent but just moved the buckets. That is not to say DryShips won't gain the most from here but I prefer some other names nearer to the top of the portfolio when they pull back like this. I do believe the commodity names in particular could go lower in a continued selloff but this is consistent with my layer in and out approach and CLF in particular I had down to a 1.4% stake, after taking some profits out and I want to have this to be a larger stake.
Personally I find it very bullish that *thus far* the coal, natural gas, fertilizer et al group has not fallen (as a group) to levels seen last week, despite the market itself being lower. But as I wrote this morning, the market is made up of humans - and humans like big round numbers for whatever reason. Hence S&P 1200 would provide that bounce. It has. Now we'll see if that is anything more than a knee jerk reaction. I still did not feel like throwing up this morning (aka the Barf Indicator (tm)) so either I'm becoming immune to these sell offs, or there is yet more pain coming.
Again - I really like the names we own; unfortunately we do not exist in a vacuum so we're taking some pain for the interim period. Somewhere Stanley O'Neil and his ilk are laughing smugly on their yachts at what they (with help of Easy Uncle Alan Greenspan) have wrought upon us all. [Oct 31: You're Fired! Now Here is $160M to Help Ease the Pain] And we're left here with the smoking ruins, cleaning up the mess with our newly socialistic government.
Long all names but Core Laboratories in fund; long Mosaic, Cleveland Cliffs, A-Power Generation Systems in personal account
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