This could be a wrongheaded move but for now I am going to exit XTO Energy (XTOa>) as today's jump on the hurricane is providing a chance to escape the position with essentially no loss. Despite a horrid chart, we exited with a $50 loss which all things being equal I'll take. We've held this position since April 2008.
One could argue this is the beginning of a new move up in commodities or natural gas. Perhaps. I don't know. But we can always purchase later when the stocks are in a firmer uptrend. For XTO it is pretty clear - north of $56 would signify a good thing - we have multiple resistance levels at $54 (50 day) and $56 (200 day moving averages). So we'll close this out for now and if this move is more than Gustavo related and lasts past the middle of next week, we'll rethink this. It is impossible to game what HAL 9000 and his friends will be doing next week or the next few weeks. For now, I'm happy to be out flat and we can think with a clear mind and no past baggage what we want to do going forward. We still have our coal and fertilizer exposure if the "global growth/commodity" trade is back in vogue by the quant hedge funds in the coming weeks. I have my doubts.
I'm continuing on the assumption that in this market breakDOWNs are to be bought and breakOUTs are to be sold. This has worked in 75-80% of the cases of late, and while nothing works all the time, it seems to be the current flavor of the day.
No position
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