I only have one long position over 2% exposure in the portfolio, as I've been cutting long exposure left and right into this "ignore all news because Obama will save us" rally. As I said the past few days we are seeing speculative junk being run up instead of quality companies, and when that happens you are nearer to the end of the rally than the beginning as people have run out of good ideas and are now speculating on the most beaten down merchandise.
My only position over 2% is one I just added to this week, Illumina (ILMN) on a breakout. The stock is right at the support level we pointed out and I'm going to play this cautious and cut it back from a 3.2% stake to 1.1% in the $25.40s. The stock has held up relatively well all day but has now weakened and could break below support and close there. With a market that has run up on nothing but "hope" I don't want to take the risk here and wish to protect capital. If I'm wrong, I'll be happy to buy it back at a higher price if the market/chart strengthens.
I am sitting on a massive load of cash here and have been begun adding to short exposure - I wrote Monday I was looking to do this once the S&P closes below 920. Since these short ETFs are useless except when the market is in free fall - I am now only adding to them when a break of support is imminent - otherwise they are capital destruction machines. Short of a nonsense 3 PM rally that "break" of support (920) should happen today. I don't want to make big "allocation bets" either way heading into the knee jerk reaction day Friday so we're going to be wallowing in cash until we see where the market takes us. Any sense would say downward, but hope seems to dominate sense of late. I will however, begin to redeploy some of this cash into my favorite names once they falter - the ones the market has abandoned the past 3-4 days to run up daytrader favorites with no fundamental basis outside of 'thesis'.
Again, a break back below S&P 920 takes us to the S&P 850 to S&P 920 range. I'd expect some defense at S&P 900 but I don't see any catalyst to be pressing long here - the only thing bulls have had is "hey stocks ignore all bad news - whee!" We hung around for much of the ride (but we underperformed last week as the market partied and we began building cash stockpiles in earnest) but as we noted yesterday with the plain silly moves in commodity stocks, the cops were soon going to be called to the party. I expect a horrific earnings season ahead and unlike the bulls who see unicorns, butterflies, and fairies by summer, I don't think corporate America will agree - we'll start hearing many doses of reality in the coming weeks from the companies themselves. The unemployment ranks rising, strip malls emptying, and state budgets faltering should also be a reminder to those who believe things are turning around by Independence Day.
I believe this market has discounted a poor first quarter of 2009. What is has not discounted is the severity and duration of this slowdown, and the limpness of the coming "recovery". [Dec 15: The "Recovery"]
Long Illumina in fund; no personal position
Did you like this article?
Gucci Shoulder Handbag GG
This article is very good.
This article is very good. And I like you very much!
The author was too kind.
Thank author sharing.At this is once!
Nike shox cheap nike shox shoes cheap nike shox
Authentic Products nike shox shoes provides all kinds ofnike shox r4 and shox nike mens nike Shox R4.
nike shox NZ in high quality but lowest prices possible from USA.
kids nike shox and
nike shox monster run
nike shox turbo
nike shox r4 and nike shox r5
We frequently update the styles of kids nike shox flame so please check back to choose your favourite shoes.
Life lies in sports.The mbt shoes wants to offer you great comfort while you doing sports.cheap mbt shoes is on sale now.The mbt lami shoes,mbt m.walk shoes,mbt chapa shoes,mbt sport shoes, mbt anti and cheap the anti-shoe is a good mbt shoes for you.You can enjor yourself here,uk retail mbt, retail mbt shoes
chenlimbt m.walk shoes green,mbt lami shoes black and chapa mbt shoes brich waiting for you.
Porsche Design watches at
If you are looking for the
A lot Aof people are
puma shoes |puma speed
mbt mbt trainers mbt
mbt trainers
mbt schuhe
mbt sale shoes
mbt sale
mbt shoe
mbt shoes review
mbt shoes clearance
walking shoes
mbt walking shoes
mbt shoes uk
mbt reviews
mbt shoes
mbt shoes on sale
cheap mbt shoes
mbt shoes for sale
anti shoes
mbt anti shoes
mbt chapa shoes
mbt m.walk grey
mbt m.walk pink
mbt m.walk black
mbt m.walk peachblow
mbt lami
mbt lami shoes
mbt lami sale
mbt lamis
mbt lami purple
mbt sport
mbt sport 2
mbt sport
mbt sport shoes
air jordan shoes air jordan nike shoes nike jordan shoes nike jordan jordans shoes jordans michael jordan shoes michael jordan Jordan basketball shoes cheap jordan shoes jordan shoes on sale Jordan Fushion Shoes discount jordan shoes mens jordan shoes mbt m.walk pink
mbt m.walk black
mbt m.walk peachblow
mbt lami
london links links london
links london jewellery
links of london
love links jewellery
love links
links bracelet
links bracelets
links bracelets london
links bracelets cheap
links bracelets for men
links charms
links charms sale
love links charms
links jewellery
links of london usa
links of london sale
links of london wholesale
links jewellery sale
links jewellery wholesale
tiffany co
tiffany and co
tiffany rings
tiffany jewelry
tiffany & co
tiffany jewellery
tiffany engagement rings
engagement rings
tiffany uk
tiffany ring
tiffany ring on sale
tiffany ring for sale
tiffany ring for men
ugg bailey boots Ugg Bailey Button Boots Ugg Bailey Button ugg button boots Ugg Bailey UGG Classic Cardy boots Cardy boots UGG Cardy boots UGG Cardy sale ugg classic short sale ugg short boots ugg classic short ugg classic tall Boots ugg tall ugg tall boots ugg classic tall mbt m.walk peachblow
mbt lami
nike shox shoes shox shoes
uggs on sale Ugg Classic