Chinese online travel stock Ctrip.com (quote/CTRP">CTRP) is acting strange today - it's suddenly shot like a rocket up nearly 9%. In a bull market I'd say "someone knows something" and is getting in ahead of an official announcement. In this market I simply say "thank you, I'm cutting back". This chart should look very familiar - its the same chart across a multitude of names I've cut back into on any stock surge. Broken down stock, revisiting a resistance area.
So I continue this defensive measure into a stock market I don't believe in. We've done with with about 20 stocks the past week. All these stocks are in prove me stage, until shown otherwise and I continue to be ok with giving up upside to protect capital until the indexes overall improve. A lot of leadership stocks I look to are showing no signs of life other than oversold bounces when the Kool Aid is hot and heavy. No sustained excellence from them. Hence I don't believe in this rally, and I'll take the "other side of the trade" of the CNBC pundits.
I've cut Ctrip.com down to a holding stake of 0.1% down from 1.2%, with a sale around $47. I continue to build cash in this environment which I don't trust. Again, as I repeat daily now, if I am wrong (which has a 50% chance) and this is the beginning of the next leg up, we'll miss the beginning of the move and trail the market. If I'm right (50% chance) you'll thank me later as you watch your other mutual funds implode ;)
[Feb 28: Ctrip.com Continues to Impress]
[Jan 5: Zachstocks on Ctrip.com]
Long Ctrip.com in fund; no personal position
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