It's a darn shame that so many names I was stopped out of last week are imploding to the tune of 15%+ today. Can't have your cake and eat it too....
I am covering partial positions in Capital One Financial (ytoinvest.com/quote/COF">COF) - covered almost all of this, some Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Macy's (M). I don't believe the Federal Reserve will save retailers too - I am quickly running out of places to hide from Uncle Ben's pressure so hence why I had to move to retailers for short exposure last week. I'm not sure why people are flooding into retailers on any thesis as the unemployment rate only ratchets ever upward the rest of 2009 but it's hard to argue with a stampede of bulls. Commerical real estate is faltering badly as well (multiple names we own are down nearly 20%), but I was forced to cover so much of our exposure on the massive short squeezes last week, so the dollar impact is not huge.
Nice to get back on the saddle again after 2.5 weeks of being 2 steps behind; the call Friday to position for a correction came with excellent timing. Due to our lack of short exposure we are flat on the day - if this day had happened about 4 sessions earlier we'd be up 1-2% I'd guess.
As for the market a certain blogger wrote last Friday [Starting to Position for Correction]
If the market is its usually wicked self, we'd see a jump over S&P 870 where every set of computer eyes in America is trained, causing the last shorts to puke out their positions, and longs awaiting a "breakout" to new levels to jump in - and then we'd reverse once everyone has their chips in. The last shorts would give up, after weeks of pain, and longs would be triumphant. That would seem too cruel but let's see if it plays out.
Indeed; the market always has the last laugh. That scenario worked out with exact precision.
There is nothing sinister yet here for the bulls, I am looking at S&P 840, 830, and 820 all as various support levels. Even down to S&P 780 a bullish technical picture could be construed. And now all those "left behind" in the rally can jump in as this was the chance they hoped for. But it is much easier to say it when the market is ramping up every day, rather than to do it when the time comes. Until proven otherwise I'll assume the intermediate term is still bullish and with Apple reporting mid week I am sure the bulls will ignore the Eaton's of the world and say the Apple economy proves green shoots abound.
While it's nice to be "right" this just continues the "student body left" trading that is so tiring. All that matters is guessing the direction of the market on a daily basis, individual stocks and sectors mean little to nothing. Wake up every morning and flip a coin.
Palm (PALM) which we highlighted a few weeks ago for a second time, is an absolute ox - can't bring it down. I shied away due to valuation (extreme) but this is the market where valuation means nothing and charts mean everything. [Apr 1: Palm Pre May Not Match Apple iPhone Debut as Economy Flags]
Short COF, BBBY, M in fund; no personal position
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