Bookkeeping: Covering Remaining Commercial Real Estate Shorts & Cutting Back Again on American Express (AXP) Short

Submitted By Trader Mark
With the massive dilution in the sector, plus Federal Reserve backing - it appears things like rental rates an d occupancy % are meaningless. Perhaps my throwing in the towel will mark the top but as I scanned the Commercial Real Estate sector chart after chart this weekend, all I saw were 'bullish' set ups. Stocks above all moving averages and bouncing on each test of a support. If I were truly genius I would of been going long or be going long today in fact.

I covered the SL Green (SLG) short a week ago, and now am going to jettison the remaining 3 - this was part of a basket of names, and I did not have much left - all together roughly 1.5% in these 3 names but for now all corrections are supported by key moving averages which are not the type of charts I prefer to short. These are all material losses but most of the damage was done in April on these positions - since then I've just had small positions waiting for the market to turn down... which apparently is now a Black Swan event.

American Express' (AXP) chart took a turn for the better Friday as well after falling below the 200 day moving average. It could of gone either way last week as it was below the key resistance line (in fact closing below it 4 days in a row), but the squeeze in the last 10-15 minutes Friday killed the bearish set up. So in this case you make a probability bet but as I've been saying for over a year now, the market is dominant and individual equities mean little nowadays. The move of the market dominates the individual moves. Valuation is extreme but no one is doing valuation analysis anymore. So I cut back half my short here to contain damage, and if it continues up tomorrow will probably exit the short completely. A move over mid $26s would have it set to test early May highs. 30x forward estimates for a consumer discretionary relates stock is cheap in this market apparently.

The 2 other shorts we put on last week are still below key moving averages so I'll monitor those as the market is sweeping up almost everything with it.

I feel like my capitulation is a sign of the top but then again I've though all my capitulations to the short side for over a month now have been as well. ;) I've been under the impression once all the shorts capitulate and everyone is "in" the market reverses, but apparently there are still hold outs like me in larger number than thought. I also thought we could no longer rally on the 90th iteration of the same 'green shoot' news (China purchasing index up - just like past 2 months, is this new news?) but that is also incorrect. Somehow the same news is justification for the same rally week after week. I thought the market was an excellent discounter? Apparently it keeps getting "surprised". I also thought Americans saving at rates not seen in a decade (as we've predicted for 2 years) would be bad for consumer discretionary stocks, since those dollars no longer are to be used shopping. That thesis is also apparently wrong. So each time I cover I think "you are doing it right at the top"... but that's not been the case.

Short American Express in fund; no personal position

Did you like this article?

Login or register to post comments
Email this page
Reset vote
0 points

Guess was established in the

Submitted by erye on Thu, 03/11/2010 - 8:41pm.

Guess was established in the early '80's and mbt tunisha has since become one of global lifestyle brands. Today,guess handbags outlet, markets and distributes full collection of women,mbt lami birch men and children's apparel, as well as guess handbags outlet and accessories. Many women consider this Designer handbags outlet, Guess purses and Guess bags as among the "must have" items in their wardrobe.nike air max 95 At present,nike air max handbags are not just fashion statements anymore.nike air max 360 Bags must be large,2009 air max sturdy and functional to support the needs of the modern woman.mbt lami birch It is not unusual for women to more than one bag. air max 2003 A vital necessity for one bag is not adequate to carry everything she needs.nike air max 2010 Guess handbags are trendy that complements every fashion-conscious woman's lifestyle.nike air max 95 Most retail stores sell Guess purses between nike air max 90, making this an affordable nike airmax 95.

0332Adidas Shoes Sale with

Submitted by icecream on Wed, 02/24/2010 - 10:19pm.

0332Adidas Shoes Sale with superior quality but reasonable price.From Adidas Skateto Adidas Superstar Shoes,Adidas Samba,Adidas Basketball Shoes,Adidas Originals always make people satisfactory.We also offer all kinds Nike Air Max:Air Max 2009,Nike Air Max Ltd,Air Max 2003.Now,ugg boots on sale,the famous is ugg classic cardy boots and UGG bailey button.

Shop online for authentic

Submitted by ugg mbt on Sun, 02/21/2010 - 10:28am.

Shop online for authentic luxury Porsche Design Watches,wholesale Burberry Handbags,wholesale rolex watches,Accessories including PTC 911,wholesale Nike Shox Shoes,mbt shoes,wholesale Dolce Gabbana Handbags,wholesale Louis Vuitton Handbags,Flat Six,wholesale ed hardy,wholesale rolex watches,Indicator at our website,porsche design watches,wholesale jordan shoes,nike air max 2009,The biggest brand discount website!

If you are looking for the

Submitted by Ecboots on Thu, 02/18/2010 - 9:37pm.

If you are looking for the top boots such as timberland boots sale,christian louboutin shoes, uggs on sale,puma shoes ,high quality, Quick shipment,Lowest price and Good service. Many people care their health.To have a good MBT shoes, will help reduce the anxious.when you see mbt shoes sale, you can find timberland boots sale, christian louboutin sale and puma shoes sale, no matter which you like, there are some other styles, like timberland 6 inch boots, ugg bailey button,ugg argyle knit boots,timberland boots mens,timberland roll top boots, mbt lami shoes.these shoes make you so fashion in cold winter. Also,you can take a look the designer handbags,such as gucci handbags,chanel handbags, Louis Vuitton Handbags and so on.

puma shoes |puma speed

Submitted by xuxiangfei on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 10:17pm.

Your guide to Discount

Submitted by erye on Mon, 02/01/2010 - 12:18am.

Your guide to Discount Designer Sunglasses Online including exclusive deals on Chanel Sunglasses, We are the direct manufacturer of classic chanel sunglasses provides you with wholesale,Gucci Sunglasses offer a large selection of wholesale replica sunglasses and wholesale Prada Sunglass,include ray ban sunglasses,Freepost Returns on all Sunglasses sale is a great source for sunglasses on Discount sunglasses sale.

Christian Louboutin Sale

Submitted by fan on Fri, 01/29/2010 - 1:13am.

Christian Louboutin Sale

As the climate is colder and colder, many more warm boots fight against cold. Christian Louboutin Boots avariable in worldwide, have become femininity, hight quality and nice design for women. So Christian Louboutin boots are very popular. Getting a pair of Christian Louboutin that is dream of every girl.
Christian Louboutin Shoes have peep toe, signature red leather sole will help you show your taste. They are sexy, gorgeous and fun. The designers ' national spirit, is " make shoes that are like jewels" and each unique design demonstrates an unparalleled degree of quality and a born sultriness. Christian Louboutin Shoes desined with leather lining,round toe, concealed platform,hidden heel and signature red sole,which will bring much confidence and comfort and make you more beautiful.
However, if you purchase online, you will find a couple of Christian Louboutin begins at a fraction of the price of the originally price, you should be aware that buy Christian Louboutin online can save your money. One began the discount Christian Louboutin and is payment have been offered in goodugg.net store.
Look at the Christian Louboutin! What a slender and graceful line! Ladies are crazy about it. If you are engaged in the vogue or you want keep the same pace with the trend. Christian Louboutin Sale could be your best choice.

We supply nfl jerseys,cheap

Submitted by cheap nfl jerseys on Thu, 01/28/2010 - 12:15pm.

We supply nfl jerseys,cheap nfl jerseys,wholesale nfl jerseys,nfl youth jerseys wholesale,bears jerseys.All kinds of jerseys are on sale jersey shirts,Buy wholesale nfl jerseys, baseball jersey products limited edition. free shipping and accept credit card online authentic jersey.

We guarantee goods' world

Submitted by GGG on Thu, 01/21/2010 - 3:39pm.

We guarantee goods' world first class quality and competetive price, have an extensive selection of louis vuitton neverfull,and all of our handbags are with high quality. Welcome to luis vuitton Online Store. At QualityReplicaHandbags.com our perfectionism pays off. Our obsession with detail and skilled craftsmanship means the louis vuitton speedy are exquisite imitations flawlessly cut.