As people drive to Best Buy (BBY) in their 0% down, 0% interest rate Harley Davidson (HOG) to buy Whirpool (WHR) refrigerator's, before they head back home to their 4.65% mortgage rate new homes from Pulte Home (PHM) - they are doing so as they smirk in my general direction. Why do they have so much time to shop you ask? Well they don't have jobs - what else will do you do when money is raining from the heavens by the powers that be. You will shop - it is patriotic.
The house ATM is back, and the printing presses are throwing money at everyone. No job? No problem? And that's not just a late night commercial anymore. Money is overflowing in Joyville, USA. I've been short Harley since Monday ($13.20s) and again I've been keeping position sizes small on the short side thinking S&P 870 could happen (this was a 1.2% stake when I started it) but that doesn't mean the exhaust fume burns feel any better. I am exiting north of $15 for a cool hand Luke 13%+ loss.
It seems like the only thing a human is allowed to short anymore is commerical real estate. I know this might seem amusing if you are a bull but trust me, we played this song and dance at least four times in 2008 when the "consumer is back" trade was on (remember when the consumer was back due to the spring 2008 housing bottom [thesis]? or the consumer is back because gas is dropping from $4 to $2.50 [thesis]? or the consumer was back when... well you get the picture) It doesn't matter if its true as long as enough desperate mutual fund managers who are trailing the indexes by 10% for the quarter need to make their March 31 filing looking like they caught the rally.
I will make this up these egregious % losses in consumer related stocks by buying solar stocks that are up 50% today as many speculators did between 3:45 PM and 4:00 PM (ok not really but just you watch solar stocks gap up 30% tomorrow morning), because in the Ponzi scheme called the stock market, all you need is to find a greater fool. And also because solar panels were on the shopping list mentioned in paragraph one. Also don't forget the $5 organic peaches at Whole Foods (WFMI) or $140 sweaters at Saks (SKS) - the consumer is back! Even if a week from Friday we'll see how many more of them have no jobs. Jobs are immaterial to the American economy as IBM clearly showed yesterday by shipping another 5000 of them to India. As long as we have more printed money handed to us, we can sit at home. And shop.
No longer short Harley Davidson in fund or personal account
Photo of me in the last hour of the trading day below... I'm the one in the white shirt.
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