Bookkeeping: Adding to Excel Maritime (EXM). James River Coal (JRCC), Atwood Oceanic (ATW)

Submitted By Trader Mark
Another nice markup to close the day... have to hand it to the magical invisible hand. Not as egregious as last Friday but we'll take it.

*************

Over under in how many days the "reflation" trade comes back? 2.

gb(102, 0, 204);">EDIT 4:45 PM But let's be clear, this is mostly a smoke and magic trade in commodities - outside of the weak dollar. See this factoid on how weak the US consumer is... the rise in gasoline prices just from low $2s to mid to upper $2s has already done this per report today.

Gasoline consumption slipped 518,000 barrels to 9.02 million, the biggest decline since January 2005.

You can tell me all the stories you want about China, but please this is the biggest market in the world.

END EDIT

ETFs have truly changed this game - anything healthcare related, HAL9000 and friends piled into it, while they piled out of commodities. Literally I see 200+ stocks on my watch lists down 5-10%+ because oil is down a whopping 2%. Just amazing really - student body left trading seems here to stay.

Still have my limit order out in BHP Billiton (BHP) at $55 but for now Excel Maritime (EXM), Atwood Oceanics (ATW) and James River Coal (JRCC) took some boot stomps... I'm adding to those 3 in decent size. Hoping for 1 more big down day in the group to get better pricing - all 3 are holding uptrends so I am ok with these falling.

Please note all comments below are on individual charts but as we noted Monday there is now a 80% correlation between the stock market and individual stocks, so individual charts are prisoners to the market... and for these guys in particular; they are all prisoners to oil. If oil drops to $60 or below - the charts will be meaningless as 'hot money' will run to the next thesis.

James River has rewarded all buys on dips to the 20 day the past month - and keeps making higher highs. The 50 day has also crossed over the 200 day which is a supporting positive.

Excel Maritime - see James River - all dips to the 20 day are rewarded... only difference is the fact the 200 day is higher, not lower.

Atwood Oceanics- just my sissy way to play oil; I prefer oil services and deep(er) sea drilling is my favorite method in oil services.

On the other hand, I am worried about Mosaic (MOS) here as the chart ... below $52 .... could take a turn for the worse. This 20 day moving average is key - below that we could visit $48, so I'll cut this name back if it falls tomorrow morning and look to reacquire down at $48, which is nearly 10% below here. I don't like the move below the 200 day moving average and the fact it did not run with all the rest of the commodity crowd Monday and Tuesday.

These 5-10-15% swings, all tied to oil make little sense... but this is the market we have created for ourselves. A craps table.

Long all names mentioned except the Invisible Hand

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