The chart says it all. The BKX is trying to find support at the SMA 50 after it failed to do what it had done all the way up into the spring. Namely, find strong support at the EMA 20. This is a picture of waning momentum and while the target of the SMA 200 still remains open, perhaps it will come after a short term decline to what should be strong support.

If this were to play out, the scenario kicks in where the broad market takes a short term dump before resuming its rise to new highs, and NFTRH's 'most optimistic' upside targets.

Needless to say, I am still holding SKF (ultra short financials) and may consider adding a bit here. Don't try this at home. Cash is a position. Hyperinflation is not likely to steal your value tomorrow.

Edit (12:31) This just in, courtesy of my broker, Fidelity, via email. Take it FWIW:

Traders Predict Rally Will Continue

With last year's sharp drop and the spring rally in their rearview mirrors, active traders are looking forward, and what they are seeing is making them somewhat optimistic.

Eight out of 10 traders think that the S&P 500^® Index will remain stable or go up by 10 percent by the end of 2009, according to a recent poll conducted at Fidelity’s Traders' Summit in Boston on June 9, an event that drew more than 500 active traders for hands on workshops and presentations by industry experts.¹

Not only are the traders expecting the markets to rise, they are also expecting their activity level to go up. More than 60 percent of the traders polled are planning to increase the number of trades they make over the coming months.

“It’s interesting to see that on the whole, the attendees at this event were positive about the market and confident in their opportunity,” said James C. Burton, president of Fidelity’s retail brokerage business.

1. The Fidelity 2009 Boston Traders’ Summit Active Trader Poll was conducted June 9, 2009, on hand-held Audience Response System devices by JStryker, Inc. On average, 307 Traders’ Summit attendees responded to each question. Fidelity invited customers and other guests to the Traders’ Summit, many of whom are active traders making 120 or more trades per year.

The experience of the active traders who responded to the Fidelity 2009 Boston Traders' Summit Active Trader Poll may not be representative of the experiences of all investors.