With the Natural Gas ETF UNG falling almost 5% before mid-day on Monday, October 26th, let’s take a quick look at the broader picture by seeing the structure and opportunities on the weekly and daily charts.
UNG Weekly:
The weekly chart is showing a lengthy Arc or “rounded reversal” pattern that continues to drag out into the $10 per share level.
Volume has trailed off as price has found a consolidation range between $10 and $15 per share in addition to the positive momentum divergence we see underlying price.
The trend structure clearly is down, and price is underneath all key weekly moving averages, and I would suggest taking a special look at the 20 week EMA, which currently resides at $12.38 per share. The 20 EMA has contained all price rallies so far like a brick wall.
Unless you’re an aggressive trader playing for a trend reversal, I wouldn’t touch UNG long for anything other than a day-trade until price can prove that it can sustain itself above the 20 week EMA for at least a few weeks.
UNG Daily:
On the daily chart, we see that price was recently unable to sustain a move above the daily 20 and 50 EMAs - which has been the pattern as seen on this chart. We look at current characteristics of successful and failed patterns to understand the “Character” or “Behavior” of a stock or market.
In this case, buyers can push price slightly above these moving averages, but have never been able to sustain price above them for more than a few days. As such, any move above the EMAs - particularly when dojis have formed - has been a sell-signal (almost mocking bulls and creating ‘Bull Traps”).
The black lines reflect adaptive trendlines from earlier in 2009.
If the prior trend continues, then we will be looking for a price move down to test $9.50 or $9.00 in the next few weeks - provided that the $12.00 level holds as it seems to be doing as resistance.
Thus, $12.00 is the line in the sand, and as long as price remains underneath this level, then odds seem to favor lower prices as a factor of the crushing downtrend in place.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
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