07.18.08 - Light Earnings + Expiration Vol

Submitted By Jeff Pietsch
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I didn't think those Tech earnings were all that bad, specifically overseas... And, it's nice to see continued relative strength from the Financials (XLF +1.68%). You have to think companies are going to guide down/ be especially conservative to play it safe in this environment. This could mean huge beats in a quarter or two unless things really unravel.

Nevertheless, Cumulative Tick looks better than price action, which is slowly deteriorating under a declining VWAP. I'll be looking at support minimally near the pivot due to the former (say SPY $125.00-$125.20). We were due a retrace after such a huge move (SPY 2-RSI[-1] = 83) , and it's constructive at this point. I'd say the Nasdaq 100 weakness is buyable for a trade (with stops)(also see links below).

Other blogs to read:

o Quantifiable Edges/ Big Volume Follow-Through
o Quantifiable Edges/ Continuation?
o BeSpoke/ Earnings Beat Rate >70%

11:15AM PST UPDATE: What's up with this narrow range. I hate narrow ranges -- make me nervous. I'd guess upside break-out, but...

11:55AM PST UPDATE: Someone (large institutions) must be leaking out a heck of a lot of supply at this level to keep up with fairly consistent positive tick. Who will break first? Don't know. Overall volume is fairly light though.

1:10PM PST UPDATE: Very happy with the day. Next week will interesting. Enjoy your weekend.

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