AT&T (T) reported less than 150,000 subscribers from the Apple (AAPL) iPhone in the last 2 days of the quarter that the iPhone was sold. I believe this does not correlate to the number of iPhones sold since a lot of people probably did not activate their service with AT&T until the beginning of July. Remember some people bought the phones to give them as gifts or sell them on eBay. Some people wanted to port their phone numbers over from other carriers, which takes time, and some people are probably waiting to ride out their existig contracts with other carriers before they activate the iPhone.
Having said that, I was a little disappointed when I walked into an AT&T store today and found the iPhone to be available. Considering that Apple knew the kind of demand for their product (remember the sign up sheets at the Apple and AT&T stores?) before launch, I am sure they didn't over supply, which can only mean that the demand for their product is a little weak. When the iPod was launched, I remember not being able to buy it for a while due to excess demand. The same applies for the Nintendo Wii even today. In other words, successful products usually have greater demand than supply.
While I have been a long term bull on Apple, I believe that the stock will trade down further in the short-term. Long-term investor need not worry but short-term guys might want to take profits.
-- Faisal Laljee
Full Disclosure: I do not own AAPL but my position can change anytime without notice.
July 24,2007
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