Expert View

Gold Leads Precious Metals Slide on Firmer Dollar

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:30:00 -0500

Dollar rises to 3-week high vs euro on stimulus hopes… Oil prices fail to hold gains above $48 a barrel… Abu Dhabi Dec gold sales fall 40 pct month on month.

Gold slid more than 3 percent in Europe on Monday as the strengthening dollar knocked the metal’s appeal as a currency hedge, and oil prices retreated from highs.

Other precious metals tumbled in gold’s wake, with silver falling 8 percent, platinum 3 percent and palladium 6 percent.

Spot gold was quoted at $851.65/853.65 an ounce at 1445 GMT, down from $873.20 an ounce late in New York on Friday, having touched a session low of $843.50.

U.S. gold futures for February delivery on the COMEX division of the New…

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Bob OBrien — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:11:00 -0500

There are a lot of people out there that purchased homes at very elevated prices at the peak and near peak of the real estate bubble and are now walking away from these homes simply because the values have dropped so much. It is one thing to foreclose when, you have lost your job or suffer a severe financial hardship beyond your control, but I think walking away just because the value dropped is a big mistake!

Looking at UNG Natural Gas Fund and Divergences

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:08:00 -0500

Similar to the chart of Crude Oil, let’s take a moment to see the structure of the US Natural Gas Fund - UNG both on the weekly and daily charts. There’s some interesting divergences that might be of interest to you. UNG Weekly Chart: The Fund started trading in mid-2007 during a sharp run-up in both crude [...]

Debt Prices Fall as Germany, U.S. Eye Large Tax Cuts

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:30:00 -0500

Debt prices plummet, dollar gains… U.S. stocks fall on profit-taking but rise in Europe… Dollar at 3-week high vs euro on hopes for stimulus plan… Oil gains as Gaza fighting raises Mideast supply worries.

News about a planned U.S. stimulus package helped pull investors into the dollar on Monday but U.S. Treasury prices slumped on fears a price bubble is about to pop in the face of a massive wave of fresh debt.

European equities advanced for the fifth session in a row, spurred by gains in shares of oil companies on the back of rising crude prices. U.S. stocks were mostly lower as investors took profits on the rally that was racked up in thin trading last week.

Oil prices…

Employment Data Dominates Calendar, Earnings Season Starts Again

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 14:08:00 -0500

The economic calendar wastes no time getting off to a busy start in the first full week of 2009. The Construction Spending report for November this morning leads off the week, and carrying over from last year, it should show a continued slowdown. Until the housing market stabilizes, and the credit markets unfreeze, money simply won’t be spent on new construction. Since neither of those options looks likely to occur anytime soon, 2009 could be another long year for the construction industry.

Tomorrow morning the Factory Orders report for November is released, and things might get better. The report is expected to show a decline, but not as large of a decline as the previous month. Whether or not this means…

Silicon Valley Turns Its Back On Green Energy

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:47:00 -0500

As President-elect Obama toots his green-energy horn, the smart money in Silicon Valley is reversing its position on the moneymaking potential of wind, solar and geothermal power sources.

The pullback by Silicon Valley’s venture-capital elite is part of a complete overhaul of its investment criteria. The big surprise is that green investments are on the hit list along with other high-tech innovations — a reversal of the save-the-planet culture that has emerged in this Mecca of libertarian funding.

An article in today’s New York Times revealed that Silicon Valley VCs are now turning to shorter term opportunities versus the long-term returns that exemplify a healthy investment climate.

Alternative energy will get more critical assessment along with the Web 2.0 hype (think social networking),…

And Then There’s This…Monday, January 05th, 2009

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:36:00 -0500

On New Years eve day, gold got sold off in the Far East a bit…and then the down trend accelerated through London trading, with the bottom being the London p.m. gold fix. From there…and to everyone’s surprise…the price took off to the upside with some real authority. True, there hadn’t been a lot of volume up until that point, but that changed from the London p.m. fix until the close of trading in New York. Silver’s chart was very similar, with the metal turning in an outstanding day as well. Gold put in an “outside day key reversal to the upside”…which is a very bullish technical indicator. The boyz have never…ever…allowed this technical indicator to work in gold…and have taken…

Resource Stock Roundup: Monday, January 05th, 2009

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:23:00 -0500

The Canadian Markets continued to march off their 2008 bottoms during the first day of trading in 2009. For the tale of the tape, the TSX Exchange added 2.74%, while the TSX Gold Index was the lone loser falling 2% and the TSX Venture Exchange, Canada’s largest junior exploration bourse, tacked on 6.23% with the advancing issuers beating out the decliners by a 615 to 135 margin on volume of 144 million shares traded.

In a reversal of fortunes, Western Canadian Coal will loan up to $36 million to its major shareholder to Cambrian Investment Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of Cambrian Mining PLC. Cambrian will use the funds to repay its financing facility with Investec Bank. Western ended the day up…

Base Metals Sharply Higher

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 13:05:00 -0500

The base metals were all sharply higher on Friday. Copper rose from the late pre-dawn hours straight through to afternoon, only just coming off its intraday high to finish at $1.4273/lb., up 14¼ cents from Tuesday.

Nickel staged a very strong upmove, building on Wednesday’s short session gains to close at its intraday high of $5.7417/lb., up $1.205. Zinc also just backed off its intraday high, ending at $0.5606/lb., up nearly 6 cents. Aluminum was nicely higher at $0.6937/lb., up more than 3 cents, while lead soared, adding nearly 8 cents, to $0.5048/lb.

Copper closed at a 3-week high on Friday, as investors chose to open the new year with a brightened outlook.

Or not. Many were downplaying the day’s action, and that…

Gold Stuck In The Mud

ContrarianProfits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 12:01:00 -0500

Gold slipped in the overseas markets, bottoming at $868 right at the New York open, moved higher to mid-morning, then went flat for the rest of the day in thin trading, finishing at $874.90/oz., down from the shortened Wednesday session but up $1.30 from Tuesday. For the week, gold added 4.4%.

Platinum was higher through the Comex, falling a bit during the Globex to end at $940/oz., up $29 from Tuesday. For the week, platinum gained a robust 10.5%.

Silver dipped below $11.10 in London trading, but was off to the races as soon as New York opened, rising all through the Comex and tacking on a bit more during the Globex, to close at $11.53/oz., up 61 cents from Tuesday.…