Overview and
Rationale:
The eight million people of Austria are at the heart of the continent
and the country’s resurgence brings back memories of its historical role as an
imperial dealmaker. Vienna still has the regal feel of an imperial capital,
much grander than its current size and stature but the country benefits
economically and politically by not being France or Germany, countries that
tend to throw their weight around the councils of Europe.
For several reasons, Austria and its exchange-traded fund
have benefited more from Europe's opening to the east more than any of the
other older EU members.
First, the Economist
points out that its trade with Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has jumped over
the past decade and a half, helping to reduce its trade deficit. Second, and
more important, Austria's stock of direct investment in central and eastern
Europe zoomed from almost zero in the early 1990s to nearly 10% of Austria's
GDP.
Furthermore, while a decade ago much of its investment was
concentrated on manufacturing, now the biggest chunk goes on financial intermediation,
property and services. This reflects its growing role as the nexus of support
services for Eastern European countries. The eastern opening, together with
those of Austria's EU entry in 1995, EU economic and monetary union in 1999
have boosted economic growth as well as the ETF (EWO) that tracks it.
That is, until last fall when EWO began a sharp decline as
the economies of Eastern Europe slowed exposing fiscal weakness and fragile
currencies.
Catalyst:
The chief catalyst that I believe will propel EWO is its relative valuation
and the likelihood that markets and economies of Eastern Europe are at a point
of maximum pessimism.
Valuation:
We are likely close to a point of extreme pessimism for EWO with minimal
downside risk and potential for prospects improve. The Austrian market is
trading at just 5.5 times projected 2009 earnings compared with 11.2 times for
Germany and 12.8 times for Switzerland. It is down about 20% over the last
three months but showing some near-term strength.
Risk Factor & Risk Management:
Moderate to high due to heavy emerging market debt of Austrian banks. Pleas keep in mind that the top three companies in EWO (Erste
Bank, OMV and Telekom Austria) account for 39% of its assets. Suggest an 8% trailing stop loss.
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