Company Overview

The great LSIF myth- Myths have a habit of surviving long past their due date. If not disproven, myths can often become accepted as fact. Was there a shooter on the grassy knoll? Do pets explode in a microwave? There is no such thing as global warming (just look at the weather yesterday). Will [...]
Kevin O’Leary is a rock star- You’ve got to hand it to Kevin O’Leary (”KO” to his friends), of Dragon’s Den fame. Decade of Daddy Fund ™ is launched! According to a press release dated June 27th, his O’Leary Global Equity Income Fund “has successfully completed its initial public offering of 3,335,000 units at a price of $12.00 per [...]
CNEH - Technical & Fundamental-
As I alerted TIMalert subscribers with 30 minutes to go before the market close on Friday, I bought 1,500 shares of China North East Petroleum Hldng Ltd. (CNEH) at $4.60—mainly because it’s the single most perfect breakout chart pattern I’ve seen in a very long-time (was considering buying ShengdaTech, Inc. (SDTH) on its own meaningful breakout above $10, but that move was too quick for me.)

And that’s just the beginning of the story (I always do research ahead of time as this popped up on my watchlist two weeks ago)
“Breaking news from the Globe and Mail”- “Hello, Voxcom? Double your staff monitoring the alarms at the Globe. Send them extra coffees, it could be a busy weekend. I’m afraid someone will break in and ransack the place. Who knows why. Maybe the Thomsons keep a few leftover A Y Jacksons in a darkroom or something. But there’s obviously nobody in the building. How [...]
Getting to “yes” on BCE part 2- Since everyone was so kind and interested in the first post (”Getting to “yes” on BCE“), here is another idea. Wish I’d thought of it two days ago given all of the traffic on the 1st post, but since these banking folks are still apparently negotiating…. Rather than pay BCE shareholders $42.75 in cash at [...]
Money Minute: Millionaires, Yahoo, Circuit City
Raymond James on Symbian / Nokia / Intrinsyc- Here is a thoughtful research piece put out this morning by the Raymond James Equity Research Group. Nokia (NOK:NYSE) is on an M&A roll lately, as it tries to turn itself into a software company. The Symbian clean-up transaction is highly relevant to Wellington Financial Fund II Portfolio Co. Intrinsyc Software of Vancouver [...]
Microsoft And Yahoo! - Again?- Reuters is reporting that Microsoft and Yahoo! are talking again. Apparently sources from each company have confirmed the talks. The report also mentions that: "The information we have is thin, but what one source is saying [is] that Microsoft is talking a price lower than the $33 they were offering when the talks disintegrated in May." Maybe the thought of going below $20 a share, which seems to be a real possibility given the recent price action of their stock, not to mention the current market environment, has Yahoo!
Getting to “yes” on BCE- BCE Takeover Part 41 Yesterday I promised to offer the deal group a few simple themes to help them “split the difference” that separates a closed BCE LBO deal from the failed version. I hate the macho theatre of negotiating, and our firm is - as a rule - in the “get to yes” business. [...]
Spin docs busy at BCE deal central- BCE Takeover Part 40 From the very first Globe and Mail scoop on the KKR / BCE rumours (see prior post “BCE takeover - only a matter of time” March 29-07), the BCE saga has reflected all of the best and worst displays of public relations strategies as the PR professionals involved have been trying their [...]
AIG - Not good- Isn't this the 2nd CEO they've canned in the last couple years? Billions in losses and an SEC investigation... and most damning of all, this chart. I did this chart as part of a personal project as I have policies with this company. AIG had a monthly close below the last vestige of what could be called major support. That resistance zone will not be overcome any time soon. This is a scary chart that tells us the 'credit crisis' - as the media likes to call it - is far from over.
Bay Street Buzz- This information courtesy of Bill Vlaad, of Vlaad and Co.: “Scotia Capital scoops three CIT Infrastructure players. Andrew Bloom, Charles Halam-Andres and Peter Kinkartz join the new Infrastructure Advisory group in July. Vanessa Gardiner, the former CCO at Research Capital left to also join Scotia Capital to head up Institutional Trade Compliance. Vice-Chair and Co-Head of Investment [...]
Hillary Clinton gets it wrong, again- It was just a few weeks ago that Senator Hillary Clinton was sending a strong message to Democratic Superdelegates. She was beating Senator Obama in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, and if the Democrats didn’t choose her as the nominee, those key swing states would turn to Republican Senator John McCain. Then there was [...]
What if BCE bondies win the day?- BCE Takeover Part 39 There may be a “Plan B” for some if the Supreme Court of Canada upholds the recent ruling of the Quebec Appeal Court regarding BCE (BCE:TSX, NYSE), but more than just the shareholders will be smarting: 1. Think of Michael Sabia. Soon after the OTPPB deal was signed, he announced that [...]
Media Hat Tip #25- In case you missed it, Andy Willis, the Streetwise Columnist at The Globe and Mail, picked up — and advanced — our “MRI Fund rumors come true” blog post from June 11, 2008. Here’s the link to his piece. AO
What happened to the VC $ at BDC?- The news that the BDC Venture Capital group had parted ways with six or seven professionals during the month of May didn’t cause much chatter at the annual CVCA bunfest in Montreal. Groups go through stages, and this one sounded no different than an end-of-fiscal-year squaring up. “People come and people go”, as [...]
Ethanol nears death’s door- It wasn’t that long ago that Ballard Power (BLD:TSX) was going to go to the moon, along with Stuart Energy, Fuel Cell Technologies, etc. A few good and bad ideas have come and gone since those days of 2000/01, but the latest bad idea certainly has to be putting another dollar into corn-based ethanol [...]
Water torture at the hands of the U.S. Attorney- Tucked away in an unremarkable Friday afternoon Bloomberg story about MF Global was more than a few nuggets about the snail-paced water torture that the U.S. Attorney is putting Bank of Montreal (BMO:TSX, NYSE) through: June 13 (Bloomberg) — MF Global Ltd., the futures broker that lost $141 million earlier this year on unauthorized wheat trades, [...]
The anachronistic Brewers Retail- As InBev launches a US$46 billion hostile bid for Anheuser-Busch, the iconic Bud may no longer be sporting an American flag. That’s something we long became comfortable with here in Canada, as Labatt, Molson and Sleeman have all been acquired by foreign-based brewers. Change is the constant in this business. John Sleeman may still [...]
Do you buy Nortel or sell? Maybe both?- The days of a herd mentality within the equity research analyst community seem to be long gone. Or at least not as prevelant. Just today, for example, two analysts published starkly different calls on Nortel Networks (NT:TSX, NASDAQ). One says it’s going to rise from $10.50 to US$23.00, and the other thinks it’s going [...]
Lehman and the spinmeisters- It was just a week ago that the Wall Street Journal was reporting that Lehman Brothers (LEH:NYSE) was looking to raise between US$3 and US$4 billion of capital. In places as far afield as Korea; a stop not historically on the roadshow schedule for wounded U.S. financial institutions trying to survive. Despite the precise nature [...]
“Bruce” the mindless eating machine-
BDC Fact #11

I recognize that it has been awhile, but I’ve been keeping my powder dry on the ~~Business Development Bank of Canada~~ “Bruce” front in the hopes that the Great White Shark of the Canadian sub debt industry would reform all on its own. You know who I mean.

Bruce the Shark is one of the delightful characters in Finding Nemo (see prior post “BDC Fact #4” December 10-07), the one who so very much wants to live up to the motto of “fish are friends, not food”. Except when he gets his first whiff of blood, that is. Then Bruce’s DNA kicks in and he reverts to what Chubb calls a “mindless eating machine”.

The BDC is Bruce in the Ocean we do business in.
Supervalu Increases Dividend 1.5%-
Today, Supervalu, Inc. (SVU) announced a 1.47% increase in its 3rd quarter 2008 dividend. The new quarterly dividend will increase to 17.25 cents per share versus 17 cents per share in the same quarter last year. The company's 2nd quarter dividend of 17 cents per share will be paid on June 16th to shareholders of record on June 2. SVU's estimated earnings per share for year end February 2009 is $3.10. The dividend payout ratio on the 2009 earnings estimate is approximately 22%. The 5-year average payout ratio is 28%. The company carries an S&P Quality Ranking of A-.
And then the bottom fell out on Torstar shares-
I know that most of you are tech stock holders, but you can’t help but ask yourself what is going on with the good ship Torstar (TS.B:TSX). A 4% one-day drop is not something we are used to seeing in mid cap land, particularly when the stock in question is of the “value” kind.

The recent first quarter results were tough, reflecting the world of many newspaper proprietors. Restructuring charges, layoffs, a net loss. None of it good for the stock.

But today’s action reflects something different. A darker mood. A 500,000 share block traded this morning in and around $13.13. That’s a big cross for this name, and the stock didn’t trade up from there. Normally, when a capitulation trade comes to pass, the stock bounces up in the hours that follow. That didn’t happen today. ;-(

What that means is this: Torstar shareholders and Bay Street prop traders don’t think the beating is going to end just yet. As a result, the stock closed below $13 for the first time since I started watching the quote circa 1997 (I was a Star paperboy in 1976-78, but was more interested in cars, photography, girls and hockey than the price of Torstar shares).
GMP Research bumps RIM target big time- Now that RIM’s (RIM:TSX) market cap. is well above the Royal Bank’s (RY:TSX), perhaps Canada’s technology industry will start to attract more investment capital. Here is this morning’s RIM note from our friends at GMP Securities. “Raising forecasts on new product growth • Raising forecasts: We are raising our forecasts and target based on higher growth [...]
Commodity Roll Over ? Not for Copper , Coal or Moly- Investors are nervous. Some are taking their profits out of commodities before there is a " turn ". Yet - despite ag stocks and energy stocks not climbing - the underlining commodities remain strong. Even a $10 or $ 20 fall in oil will not make the commodity cheap or more available. Higher rice and grain prices won't prevent most people eating or farmers wanting fertilizer for greater growth. It is reasonable to take some of your profits - but don't expect or live in fear of a market collapse in commodities . A) Freeport - McMoran Gold and Copper Inc. ( FCX) Freeport-McMoRan reported record first-quarter profits on Wednesday, April 23 ,despite a drop in production, as worldwide demand pumped up copper and gold prices. But industry observers said investors worried about whether the slumping American housing market would slow the rush on copper, and Freeport's shares fell $2.57 to close at $116.08 Wednesday, after climbing to a 52-week high of $123.27 earlier in the session.
Hillary Clinton: it’s me or no one-
As the delegate gap between Senator Hilary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama grows wider in the latter’s favor, Sen. Clinton has declared that she is “in for the long haul.” With only a few more primaries left in the coming weeks, there isn’t much of a “long haul” to be in for.

But she isn’t referring to 2008, she’s referring to 2012.

One Clinton adviser says “we don’t want an October surprise” from Sen. Obama’s past. One assumes he is referring to the fear (hope?) that some in the Democratic party hold that a porn video exists from Sen. Obama’s University days, which Republicans will release to YouTube or YouPorn.com in the month before the November 7th Presidential vote. For Sen. Clinton to hang around solely for that reason is an awfully cynical rationale.

When former President Bill Clinton’s senior House Advisor, Vince Foster, shot himself in the head one day in a park on the banks of the Potomac River, who was sent - alone - into his office first to check for a suicide note and to see what papers he was reviewing prior to deciding to end it all?
Yamana Gold - Update Shines- Yamana Reports - a triple play YRI $14.92 up $1.11 ( 8 %) TORONTO — — Yamana Gold Inc. said Wednesday that its first-quarter profit nearly tripled on higher prices and sales of gold, copper concentrate and silver. Merger results in profits Yamana, which acquired Meridian Gold and Northern Orion Resources last year for $4.8-billion (U.S.), said Adjusted earnings were $134.7-million, or 20 cents a share, up from $47.3-million, or 13 cents, in the year-before period. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a profit of 15 cents a share before exceptional items. Net income was $63.1-million, up from $27.4-million, the company said. Revenues at the Toronto-based miner more than doubled to a record $356-million from $145.1-million a year earlier. Mine operating costs jumped by a similar magnitude to $195.2-million from $76.4-million. Production Quarterly production was 237,495 gold equivalent ounces, while realized prices jumped to $927 an ounce from $645. For the second quarter, the company said production is expected to be between 265,000 and 280,000 gold equivalent ounces, and is expected to increase each quarter for the balance of the year.
Another way to play BCE-
Enough about the equity - look at BCE’s bonds. We posted last year that BCE’s bonds dropped off a cliff once the Teachers deal was announced. Made sense - lots of extra debt is going to pile in and the current bondholders have security over a soon-to-be highly levered company. When you don’t change the business, enterprise value is a constant. So creating shareholder value means taking from the bondholders.

Fast forward a year and the bonds are still trading down, which means they expect the deal to go through.
Boy Genius: PR genius, but a disclosure nightmare-
At some point yesterday afternoon I noticed that Research in Motion (RIM:TSX, RIMM:NASDAQ) was running up a couple of dollars. With the NASDAQ higher by 2%, one wouldn’t be surprised that momentum players were bidding it up. RIM is one of the great “mo” stocks that hedge funds will play when tech looks to be in favour.

It wasn’t until the stock was up $5.60 that I found out what the pros knew was driving it ever higher - a blog post on The Boy Genius Report (BGR).

For at least the past couple of years, BGR has had an uncanny ability to break exclusive stories about exciting launches from RIM. They can be as benign as an “exclusive look” at the Desktop Manager 4.5 release (April 8/08), or the more interesting “exclusive news” about the BlackBerry 9000 (Nov. 23/07) and the national breakfast tour of the 8320 (Oct. 3/07).
Jim Flaherty right to toughen bank disclosure- You have to give federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty credit. He’s been patient. But with many months under the bridge and no action by Canada’s market regulators to deal with the extremely poor subprime, SIV and related disclosure out of Canada’s chartered banks - Minister Flaherty has decided to fix it himself. [...]
An Emerging Growth Stock Story - New Frontier Energy, NFEI-

Monday December 10 2007
John Bougearel

New Frontier Energy - Summary
The company is accelerating shareholder value primarily by rapidly building its proven and probable reserves, rapidly increasing production. The foundation for rapid future growth for many years to come is now in place and set to commence in 2008.

NFEI Profile
Prentice is right to reject MDA space deal- When Macdonald Dettwiler (MDA:TSX) finally admitted that it wanted to sell its space and satellite systems division to Alliant Techsystems (ATK:NYSE) for $1.3 billion (having originally denied the rumour, see post “Canadarm to wind up in U.S. hands?” June 14-07), my first reaction was typically nationalist: “Would the Americans let their key military or space [...]
What's The Gospel According to Google?- In a biblical sense, the "Gospel" means "Good News." So, the Gospel writers Mark, Matthew, Luke, and John were "dispensing" the Good News of the "Coming of Jesus." Yes, in a perverted sense, the "Coming of Google" has been great for the world wide web, literally transforming all our lives and connecting us all globally into a 'small community."

But, the good news that I have to dispense is for Google investor, not for world wide web community of internet users. As we all know, in recent months, Google has suffered some huge losses, declining 43% to 425. Turns out the reason for that hit is their ad revenues were not recession proof. Apparently, web surfers are suddenly not clicking on their ads as frequently as they once had.

Anniversary Kisses and Round Trippers
Google's Valuation Finally Reasonable- Google Inc (nasd:GOOG) $439.16- Google shares have dropped about 40% from its high around $750 due to concerns of slowing growth. Considering the long-term picture, coupled with GOOG shares historically being overvalued, Google’s current valuation is attractive. Google a the dominant player on the internet with a strong competitive position that will provide sustained growth and high margins for many years. In the internet space, Google is a must-own, and finally its valuation is reasonable.

Online Advertising Market Growth:
The internet is still growing in terms of users and usage- More people are spending more time online. Devices such as the iPhone, are contributing to this trend. Online advertising only accounts for 10% of total ad spending. As advertising on the web continues to grow, Google stands to capture a significant amount of expenditures.
Goldman, Lehman and Friends: A Breathe of Life…-
Briefing Headlines:

Goldman (GS) Reports Q1 (Feb) earnings of $3.23 per share, $0.65 better than the First Call consensus of $2.58; revenues fell 22.4% year/year to $8.34 bln vs the $7.47 bln consensus

Lehman (LEH) Reports Q1 (Feb) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.09 better than the First Call consensus of $0.72; revenues fell 30.5% year/year to $3.51 bln vs the $3.35 bln consensus.

Lehman Brothers Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist, John Malvey is looking for a 100bps cut in rates. 75bps would be fine, but 100bps would be better. Without blinking, he said, “why not go for it already.” The authorities had no alternative as went on to discuss that this was not a bailout…rather it is an intervention. (I feel better!)
Lehman: Read Between the Lines-
In the earnings news today, Lehman (LEH) Reports Q1 (Feb) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.09 better than the First Call consensus of $0.72; revenues fell 30.5% year/year to $3.51 bln vs the $3.35 bln consensus. What is meant by the word certain?

LEH says liquidity pool of $34 bln and unencumbered assets of $64 bln, with an additional $99 bln at regulated entities, at quarter end. Net revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 reflect negative mark to market adjustments of $1.8 bln, net of gains on certain risk mitigation strategies and certain debt liabilities.

Now for the bad news:

The Firm’s pre-tax margin was 18.9% for the first quarter of fiscal 2008, compared to 33.7% for the first quarter of fiscal 2007.

Shareholders are not going to be happy with this:

Return on average common equity was 8.6% for the first quarter of fiscal 2008, compared to 24.4% for the first quarter of fiscal 2007.
Enough with pounding the banks- Shares of BMO are down more than 5% again today, and the shares are closing in on a 5 year low. BNS, Commerce, Royal and TD are off 2% or more as well. The backdrop? SIVs (BMO, Commerce), ABCP, (BNS, Royal), credit derivatives and re-insurance (CIBC, Royal, etc.), impending U.S. recession (BMO, TD, Royal), [...]
Joe & Jill Retail deserve to know- Most investors won’t know it, but Bank of Montreal (BMO:TSX) has been actively reducing its exposure to the US$24 billion LINKS Structured Investment Vehicle (see prior posts “SIV values may mean more pain to come” January 16-08 and “The self-serving but sensible ‘bailout’” October 16-07). LINKS is probably the key risk associated with the [...]
Onex’s strategy for quiet Buyout markets- The normal course issuer bid isn’t all that novel, but when a buyout firm does it, you have to take notice. Lest we forget, all that a buyout firm has to live on is its “dry powder”. That undeployed cash horde that has not yet found a home. Merchant bankers can’t show [...]
Canadian gumshoes ignore fraud & billions in losses-
Earlier this week, Conrad Black was told by a Chicago judge that he couldn’t delay his March 3rd jail date. Despite having worked out of his historic 10 Toronto Street address, Canadian enforcement officials never found Lord Black wanting - even though Canadian equity research analysts had long figured out that most of Hollinger’s profit wound up in the hands of Ravelston shareholders.

One doesn’t even need to raise the name Garth Drabinsky, who never caught the OSC’s eye until the FBI came calling, to get a sense that we do things differently in Canada.
Saavas, keep your chin up!- I see that our friend, Eric Rosenfeld, has put out a release advising that his fund Crescendo Partners has tripped the 10% ownership threshold at Dalsa (DSA:TSX). Welcome to the world of activist investing, Dr. Chamberlain. As a potential takeover target someday (see prior post “Takeovers to come“, April 15-07), Mr. Rosenfeld may be right [...]
Canaccord on Intrinsyc’s big Samsung win- This is excerpted from Canaccord Capital’s Morning Coffee note: Intrinsyc Software (ICS : TSX : $1.15), Net Change: 0.21, % Change: 22.34%, Volume: 3,825,880 In 1999, throwing down the name Samsung would have been worth 3-4 bucks easy…Intrinsyc announced that Samsung Semiconductor System LSI Division has signed a licensing agreement for the Soleus software platform. Samsung will [...]
A New Way for Investors to Ride the Rails-
Last week, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire (BRK-A) announced that it raised its investment stake to 18.2% in the second largest domestic railroad, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI). At Berkshire’s annual meeting last year, Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger discussed their investment interest in railroads since the industry is healthier today compared to past years.

Can Sprint Turn Things Around?- While the markets were closed on Monday for the holiday, speculation began to mount that Sprint Nextel Corp (NYSE: S) was on the verge of launching a price war against its competitors in an effort to win back its customers (see TheStreet.com’s article by Scott Moritz). The depth of Sprint’s troubles became apparent on Friday when the company issued a statement that announced major layoffs of 4,000 positions and approximately 125 store closings in order to cut cost by $700-$800 million per year.

Rochester Medical Rises Ahead of Trial Date-

Shares of small-cap medical device maker Rochester Medical (Nasdaq: ROCM) have moved up over 25% this week, currently trading at just over $14 per share. The rise occurs ahead of a scheduled trial date with medical products giant and Tyco (NYSE: TYC) spin-off Covidien (NYSE: COV) that is scheduled for the end of February.

Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX): A Buy Around 5 Bucks- Shares of Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) are currently a strong buy around the $5 level, ahead of near-term commercialization of its adult-derived adipose stem cell banking in Japan (StemSource) and breast reconstruction applications (Celution System) in Europe. Cytori has traded in a sawtooth pattern over the last 52 weeks with reliable bounces from the $5 level to over $6 on several previous occasions. Despite concerns by some investors over a possible stock offering to shore up the balance sheet, I believe this can be avoided.

Baby Boomers: Invest with the Trend-

A significant demographic trend in the United States that can be applied to stock market investing is the aging of the Baby Boomers, which includes those born between 1946 to 1964. A demographic profile report by MetLife (MET) on this group estimates spending power in excess of $2 trillion, representing 26% of the American population.

A Recession Proof Stock Strategy-

Amidst the backdrop of an economic slowdown and a possible recession in the US, I have developed an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to provide investors with market-beating returns in any economic environment. The fund concentrates on stocks with market caps over $1 billion that are growth leaders in their businesses and focused on products and services that people need regardless of the economy.

Deloitte’s 2008 Canadian Tech / Media / Telecom trends- Our friends at Deloitte, John Ruffolo, Duncan Stewart, et al put the following out earlier today. Duncan was on BNN TV around midday, and there was no sighting of Simon, fortunately. Here it is in great detail, in case you haven’t seen it elsewhere: 2008 Canadian TMT Predictions Canadians continue to benefit from technological advances [...]

Safe haven in gold, says Paradigm Research- If you can’t handle watching Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ) drop from US$210 to US$145 in the space of a couple of weeks, the mining research team at Paradigm has some defensive ideas for you to think about: “• We expect gold’s asset backing to shine amid market uncertainty. We re-iterate our $1100/oz one year target. • Renewed focus on [...]

Tobacco as a Safe Haven & New ETF Idea-

The Return of Tobacco: Safe Haven in a Volatile Market

Suncor ( SU)- Suncor - the premier name in the Alberta Oilsands story has the advantage of being in the middle of one expansion stage and setting up a second. Production is expected to be 350,000 barrels a day mid 2008 rising to 500,000 in 2012. These advances in production will occur at a time of high commodity prices and an energy investment bias to assets in " safe " environments. Now there is an additional plus to the Suncor story. The SEC is studying changes to its regulations that would allow oilsands to book much larger reserves on their books then allowed today.

Uranium One- From Expert J.Bass Uranium One* (UUU ): TSX : We are cautious about the revival of the uranium sector having sold all nine stocks in our " uranium basket " last summer. The commodity price fell from a high of $130 to $70 ,driving many investors out of the sector. there has been a recent recovery to $90 but investors are still shy having been burned. Our new watchlist includes only producers and now we see the aggressive management of Uranium One securing its acid supply. Uranium One has facilities around the world and the sector remains a long term growth story.

US Bancorp Raises Dividend 6.25%-

Who would have thought a 6.25% dividend increase for a bank would be viewed as a positive action. Generally, I like to see double digit dividend growth on a year over year basis, but in this environment, 6.25% seems like a good outcome.

Definition of a bad day on Bay Street- Never one to ignore the delights of irony, did you see the NYSE this morning? Charged ahead a couple hundred points on some fabulous preliminary numbers out of IBM. IBM shares soared 6%, which can’t be easy for a stock with a market cap. of US$142 billion. This from the online WSJ: [...]

Insiders are Bullish on BioSante Pharma-

Since I last wrote about BioSante Pharma (BPAX) on Seeking Alpha in late September and issued a research report, the Company has executed on its o

Definition of pathetic fallacy- Life imitates art. And art often imitates reality. But can the instability of a bank headquarters predict the undoing of their shares? First it was Bank of Montreal’s (BMO:TSX) Toronto HQ, First Canadian Place (see post “First Canadian Place is shedding its skin“, May 17-07). Huge pieces of marble tumbed to King and [...]

How Can You Profit From Market Volatility?-

AspenBio Pharma: Ready to Ascend New Heights-

Shares of AspenBio Pharma (APPY) are poised to ascend new heights during 2008 largely on the promise of the Company’s innovative blood screening test for appendicitis called AppyScore. In late October, AspenBio reached a high share price in the mid-teens after making a successful transition from bulletin board trading to the Nasdaq in late August.

Versant Partners Initiates Coverage of Discovery Air-

Versant Partners released a report on Discovery Air (DA.A:TSX) today.

Discovery acquired Wellington Financial Fund II portfolio company Top Aces in 2007.

Current price: $1.28
One-year target: $2.00
Target return: 56%

Investment Thesis

RMTI is Poised to Emerge from Under the Radar of Investors-

In early December, Rockwell Medical Technologies (RMTI) received approval from the FDA to begin a NIH-sponsored clinical trial of its innovative, water soluble iron replacement therapy for dialysis patients called SFP for short (Soluble Ferric Pyrophosphate). The nine month, 30-patient, study will examine whether Rockwell’s SFP is able to support normal iron and hemoglobin levels, reduce the need for supplemental IV iron, and avoid causing oxidant stress and inflammation.

Book lovers unite- Here’s a strange factoid for the day: according to staff at the Eaton Centre Chapters store, the crowd lined up to get their book signed by Bret ‘The Hitman’ Hart was larger than the one for former Prime Minister Jean Chretien. What does that say about our interest in politics? But the even-bigger draw was “Dog [...]

eHCi - New Top 10 Format as of 12/20/07-

Cytori Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CYTX) - report & update

Will Manulife come to CIBCs rescue?- With Citibank, Morgan Stanley et al tapping strategic investors for a major capital top-up, the rumour that Manulife is prepared to take a 10% stake in CIBC should be taken seriously. How many years ago was it that MFC was worth 10% of its current market cap. MRM

GMP Research previews touchscreen Blackberry- Our man Ray Sharma (wireless analyst at GMP Securities) has been deep in the stacks at the United States Patent Office. The following material is what he turned up regarding a pair of new Blackberries. Sounds cool and all, but he isn’t excited enough to bump his targets or forecasts. Sharma hasn’t [...]

Could Aon’s Board of Directors Be the Real Force Behind its Sell-Off, Buy-Back Strategy?- In a new strategic plan that seems tailored for reassuring investors on Wall Street, Aon Corporation (NYSE: AOC) announced late Friday that it intends to sell off two of its business units for $2.75 billion so that the company can use the proceeds for a stock buy-back program.

VisICU (EICU) Acquired by Philips Today-

The first acquisition of a stock in my eHCi as Philips agreed to pay $12/share in cash for healthcare info tech provider/developer VisICU, representing an acquisition price of approximately USD 430 million (approximately EUR 290 million). Although the offer represents a nice 35% premium from yesterday's close, the $12/share offer is about one-half the initial trading levels after the Company's successful trading debut following its IPO.

BelAir Networks deal makes it 15 for 2007- With our latest transaction, we’ve closed 15 financings in our Fund III during 2007. I’d say it is time to take a breath for the holidays, but the pipeline for ‘08 beckons. We provided $5.5 million yesterday to Ottawa-based BelAir Networks, as part of a $17.5 million financing round. Marwan Kubursi and Mario di [...]

NEJM Review on Radiation Exposure from CT scans-

Full text of article from NEJM at http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/357/22/2277

The widespread use of CT represents probably the single mostimportant advance in diagnostic radiology.

CT Colongraphy (Virtual Colonoscopy)- Given recent NEJM review article and upcoming colorectal cancer screening guidelines, it appears widespread adoption and use of virtual colonoscopy is both unwarranted and unlikely to occur. Aside from the high cost of VC, patients must still undergo the same bowel prep and restrictions as with a normal colonscopy and if polyps are found during a VC then a follow-up colonoscopy will still be required. Also, flat lesions are likely to be missed by VC versus traditional colonoscopy.

An early Christmas gift for the LSIF industry- The news is out that the Ontario government is extending the sunset period for the Labour-sponsored fund industry by a year to 2012. This is a good suprise, but what was more startling was their decision to increase the amount investors can get a tax credit for. The maximum contribution limit has been [...]

A Biotech Triple Catalyst Play-

As 2007 winds down, investors in Genitope (GTOP) are keyed up for the final results of its experimental, personalized cancer immunotherapy treatment MyVax in the treatment of B-cell non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Results are expected some time this month, so the wait should not be much longer in what has been a long ride for the Company and its investors as two previously planned interim analyses failed to halt the trial early and demonstrate convincing effectiveness for MyVax.

A Super(Gen) Play on Cancer Biotech Consolidation-

SuperGen (SUPG) is a small-cap cancer biotech with a solid balance sheet, a history of regulatory success with a total of five approvals, and a rapid cancer drug discovery platform (CLIMB) with a pipeline that currently includes five compounds. Dacogen is licensed to MGI Pharma (MOGN) domestically and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) outside of North America; while the Company closed a deal in April to sell the remaining worldwide rights to Hospira (HSP) for the cancer drug Nipent.

Genuity says its time to sell Everetz- With great gains this year ($14-$38), Genuity research analyst David Hodgson thought that it was time on Wednesday to take those profits off the table and sell Everetz Technologies (ET:TSX). He reduced his share price target from $35 to $28. And that’s about where the stock is at a couple of days later. [...]

Nanos Research finds Canadians optimistic, even cheerful- A high dollar, an early winter, buck a litre gas, and some bad hockey clubs doesn’t appear to be making Canadians cranky. According to pollster Nik Nanos, folks are feeling very upbeat. Not so upbeat that the federal government will want to call an election, but the feedback should give retailers and the [...]

Bridgewater gets done- Despite a difficult stock market, driven by a vexing credit universe, Ottawa-based Bridgewater Systems completed their initial public offering a day or two ago (see prior posts “Bridgewater IPO finally arrives“, November 6-07). The book is done. Another great win for early investors Terry Matthews, VenGrowth and Rising Tide Fund (formerly Newbury Ventures). Wasn’t [...]

EXACT Sciences (EXAS) Attractive After Recent Sell-Off- I like EXAS around the low-mid $3 level after a recent sell-off with no fundamental change in the Company's exponential upside potential as it awaits a response from the FDA on its proposed regulatory filing strategy & updated guidelines for colorectal cancer screening, which are expected to include its stool DNA-based test PreGen-Plus. Although guidelines were not released as previously indicated during November, professional GI orgs have not published anything that points to material delays in the revised guidelines.

Deloitte’s study on Canadian VC Crisis is well-timed- Three cheers for John Ruffolo and his team at Deloitte for their very timely study of the Canadian venture capital landscape. It couldn’t have come at a better juncture, and puts some meat on the trends we’ve been identifying here - in vain - for months (see prior posts “Ontario politicians asked to address [...]

YTD stats for Venture / Sub / Mezz debt- Here are the year-to-date marketshare statistics for all reported & drawn venture debt, sub debt, and mezzanine debt provided to Canadian-based companies. The data is from Thomson Financial, with the addition of other deal information that we’ve come across it. The timeline is January - November 2007. (in millions; marketshare figure in right column; [...]

BDC Fact #3- For many entrepreneurs, the BDC has played a very positive role in the development of their business. In my experience, no group personifies this more than the BDC Venture Capital team. One great story involves Bluestreak Technology, a Wellington Financial Fund III portfolio company. BDC has been involved as an equity investor for some [...]

$165MM MRI Fund: blessing or curse?- It has only been a few days since the Ontario government announced the first installment of their $165 million Ontario Venture Capital Fund, but the drums are already beating. The concept is pretty clear: Ontario kicks in $90 million, some key institutions add $75 million (RBC-20?, OMERS-20?, Manulife-15? and BDC-20?), a fund of fund [...]

BDC Fact #1- According to an Act of Parliament passed in 1995, the Business Development Bank of Canada (”BDC”) is to provide financing that is “Complementary to commercial financial institutions” whereby “the loans, investments and guarantees are to fill out or complete services available from commercial financial institutions.” BDC does not, however, believe that competing with the private sector [...]

A Super Play on Cancer Biotech Consolidation-

Shares of SuperGen are a relatively low-risk play on consolidation among biotech companies specializing in cancer treatments. Survival data early next year for Dacogen should also provide a boost to SUPG, which has $1.40/share in cash with a share price of just $4.23 well of YTD highs and close to the low – making it a good risk-reward trade at this time.

SUPG stats (12/2/07):

Sona Mobile (SNMB) at Racing & Gaming Symposium-

Come see us at The 2007 Symposium on Racing & Gaming, booth 50 for a demonstration of our server based gaming products including race & mobile wagering.

December 3-6, 2007 at the Westin La Paloma Resort in Tucson, Arizona.

Sona Mobile (SNMB) Closes Placement Ahead of Schedule- Sona Mobile Holdings Corp., a leading provider of secure software solutions for gaming and entertainment, announced today that it has closed its previously announced $3,000,000 private placement of convertible notes and warrants.

Dismissal of Invalidity Counterclaims Thwarts Apotex's Attempt to Trigger 180-Day Exclusivity on Cosopt-

Merck v. Apotex, No. 06-5789 (D.N.J. 2007)

Now about that correction- With the Dow Jones Index now down more than 10% from its high, the word “correction” has been bandied about. And so it should be. For some weeks now, we had been watching Citibank (C:NYSE) march down towards US$30, and it was fitting that the Dow crossed into correction territory on the sme [...]

An Alternative Investment Strategy- Over the last year I’ve had a number of dealings with Rogers as a business customer (Blackberry and cell phone) and as a consumer (cable and internet). And boy, what a frustrating experience that has been. Most of the dealings have been around service (getting my Blackberry set up here @ Wellington, adding the golf [...]

Genuity research: “time has come for online video”- Here is the exec summary and the conclusion of a great research piece put out by Genuity Capital Markets earlier today: “Online video: Its time has come Exec Summary • Last week, we attended an industry conference in San Francisco entitled NewTeeVee Live, which brought together content creators, distributors, carriers, hardware vendors, along with VC players to discuss [...]

A Wide Moat Gem - Fidelity National Finance- Regardless of market conditions research continues. In times like these we are ever updating our list of interesting stocks and preparing when the proverbial “Fat Pitch” crosses our path. One stock of particular interest is Fidelity National Finance (FNF). Fidelity is at the pinnacle of companies in the title reinsurance field. It is one of top 5 with approximately a 28% share of the US market. Title insurance is a very interesting type of insurance that is used in almost all real estate transactions.

Globe columnist joins the toll road gang- In case you missed it, Globe and Mail business columnist Derek DeCloet has joined us in calling for toll roads — or privatization — when it comes to dealing with the infrastructure deficit on the Don Valley Parkway and the Gardiner Expressway (see our post “Bring on the toll roads“, September 10-07). The following [...]

A Bullish Diagnosis on Rochester Medical-

Rochester Medical Corporation (ROCM) develops and manufactures a line of urinary continence and urine drainage care products, which are marketed to hospitals and extended-care facilities. The Company's extended care products include a line of male external catheters for managing male urinary incontinence and a line of intermittent catheters for managing male and female urinary retention.

emerging Healthcare index (eHCi)-

The emerging Healthcare index (eHCi) was established on 11/24/07 at a starting value of $100.00 and average market cap of $200 million to track the performance of my Top 20 stock picks in the healthcare sector with market caps less than $750 million at the time of inclusion.

Israeli tech IPO testing TSX appeal- The timing might be poor, but the TSX is stepping into the breech in the wake of the all too predictable lockdown of the AIM market (see prior posts “Bizarro AIMo part 4” April 24-07 and “Bizarro AIMo 3 - The AIM Casino“, March 10-07). About a month ago, Israel-based Exent Technologies filed a preliminary prospectus [...]

Westwind anticipates near-term earnings disappointment at Sandvine- This research report falls into the category of “highly useful” to the various portfolio managers our there; an exclusive category. Westwind’s top notch software and services research analyst likes the Sandvine story (SVC:TSX), but he’s also worried about the aggressive earnings forecasts being published by some other players on the Street: “We are initiating coverage [...]

Balsillie calls his Unite platform “the Holy Grail”- Never one to pull his punches, Research In Motion (RIM:TSX) Co-CEO Jim Balsillie told a room filled with portfolio managers (”Scotia Capital Tech/Telecom conference“, November 20-07) that his new “Unite” platform is “the Holy Grail”. Unite, was first discussed in early October during the Q2 financial results process and Mr. Balsillie advised that the [...]

CPPIB U.S. general partner Q2 2007 performance numbers- Yesterday we published the Q2 results for the ever-diminishing number of Canadian GPs (”CPPIB Canadian general partner Q2 2007 performance numbers“, November 16-07) that can still count the $121.3 billion CPP Investment Board as a limited partner. Here are the U.S. results, as of June 30, 2007. The figures that follow cover four categories: CPPIB’s [...]

Short Seller Attack on BioSante??- Since making its debut on the Nasdaq on Monday 11/5/07, shares of BioSante Pharma (BPAX) appear to be under a short sale attack with increasing trading volumes and a move from the mid-upper $5's to the low-$4's with recent stabilization back into the upper-$4's today. Short sellers should be careful with BioSante now that it is has clarity from the FDA on LibiGel and is poised to begin key Phase 3 safety & efficacy trials in the near-term.

Fraser Mac and Northern research on EnGlobe’s Q3- For our Fund II limited partners, you’ll be pleased to hear that things are going well at EnGlobe (EG:TSX), even if the stock is acting badly. If Fraser Mackenzie is right, and the stock is actually trading at 3.7 times 2008E EBITDA, I sure hope no one on the EnGlobe Board is feeling depressed [...]

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