Federal Reserve

  • Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done...- It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
  • Feds: Ivins Alone Caused 2001 Anthrax Attacks-

  • Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done...- It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
  • Wife of Slain Federal Agent Speaks Out-

    PlusWife of Slain Federal Agent Speaks OutWife of Slain Federal Agent Speaks OutThe Associated PressInvestigators continue to search for the suspect who shot and killed a federal agent outside a busy South Florida post office Tuesday. (Aug. 6)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

  • McCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'-

    PlusMcCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'McCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'The Associated PressJohn McCain says the U.S. needs an economic 'surge' to keep jobs in the country and create new ones. (Aug. 6)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

  • Fed leaves rates unchanged-

    Aug 5 - Interest rates are left unchanced, as the Fed expresses concerns about the US economy and inflation. The Fed Funds rate was left unchanged at 2 percent. The first quarter-point rate increase by the Fed is not priced in until early 2009, based on interest rate futures. Bobbi Rebell reports.

  • Wall St. cheers Fed signal-

    Aug 5 - U.S. stocks surged nearly 3 percent across the board in the biggest one-day rally in four months as investors bet the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year.

  • Wall Street Extends Rally After Fed Decision-

    BusinessWall Street Extends Rally After Fed DecisionWall Street Extends Rally After Fed DecisionThe Associated PressWall Street has barreled higher, lifting the Dow Jones industrials more than 330 points after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. (Aug. 5)Wall Street has barreled higher, lifting the Dow Jones industrials more than 330 points after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrials closed up 331 points at 11,615. The Standard and Poor's 500 index rose 35 to close at 1,284 and the Nasdaq rose 64 to settle at 2,349. The Fed said "economic activity expanded in the second-quarter" due in part to growth in consumer spending. Wall Street's worries about consumers have contributed to some of its big pullbacks in recent weeks. ___ ___, The Associated Press.

  • Feds Charge 11 in Massive Retail Hacking Case-

    PlusFeds Charge 11 in Massive Retail Hacking CaseFeds Charge 11 in Massive Retail Hacking CaseThe Associated PressThe Department of Justice announced Tuesday that it had charged 11 people in connection with the hacking of nine major U.S. retailers and the theft and sale of more than 41 million credit and debit card numbers. (Aug. 5)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

  • Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done...- It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
  • Unemployment Hits 5.7 Percent; Teens Hit Hardest-

  • Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done...- It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
  • Bush About-Face: U.S. to Talk to Iran-

  • Fed Announcement and ADP Helps to Lift the Dollar-

    Positive economic data has continued to drive the US dollar higher. Payroll provider ADP reported a 9k rise in jobs this month. As one of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, this along with stronger consumer confidence numbers is good news going into this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. However don’t expect positive job growth in the month of July. The only thing that the ADP number suggests is that the number of job losses could be less severe than the prior month. The four week moving average of jobless claims have also fallen in the week ending July 19 even though initial claims climbed to 406,000. Nonetheless, we can not forget the countless layoff announcements that have surfaced over the past two months and the fact that US companies are cutting back.

    ADP has a track record of being notoriously optimistic about projecting payrolls. Non-farm payrolls dropped in each of the past six months but between January and June, the ADP employment survey on the other hand only dropped 2 out of the 6 months. ADP has consistently missed to the high side and we expect the same this month.

  • Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done...- It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
  • Paulson talks up mortgage plan-

    Jul 22- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is working to build support for his plan to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The plan could cost taxpayers as much as $25 billion according to the Congressional Budget Office. Bobbi Rebell reports.

  • The 3Ps Push the Dollar Higher-

    The US dollar continues to recover this morning on the aftermath of the 3Ps - Paulson, Plosser and price of oil. Oil prices are trading on the $125 handle and since last Monday they have fallen more than 14 percent. If oil prices reach $100 a barrel, half of the Fed’s problems would be solved; Consumers would become more liberal with their spending while businesses would become more optimistic.

    As for Plosser and Paulson, the Fed President called for interest rates to be increased sooner rather than later, reminding the traders that the Fed still has their eyes on a rate hike.

    US Treasury Secretary Paulson was confident that Congress would approve his housing rescue plan this week and so far they are moving forward as planned, with some adjustments.

    Paulson proposed increasing Fannie and Freddie’s credit line with the Treasury and permission to buy stock in the mortgage giants. The deal that is likely to come out of the House and Senate would permit the government to inject billions of dollars in Fannie and Freddie and to insure up to $300B in refinanced mortgages. The plan is up for vote at the House of Representatives today.

  • For Fed Work, Big Biz Trumps Small Firms- PlusFor Fed Work, Big Biz Trumps Small FirmsFor Fed Work, Big Biz Trumps Small FirmsThe Associated PressAn Associated Press investigation finds companies near Washington get the bulk of federal contracts awarded to small businesses. But as the AP's Lee Powell reports, many of these firms are not so small.
  • "Big Oil" Steering Profits to Investors-

    Today the AP had an article discussing how the largest oil companies are using most of their earnings to buyback shares and give cash dividends to investors. The article complains that these companies spend more on buybacks and dividends than they do on oil exploration. Uh... hello? There are only so many places these companies can legally explore for oil. World production of oil has most likely peaked or is relatively very close to doing so. How can you blame the company for rewarding its investors, the people who risk their money to invest in the businesses? Sure, gas prices are high. But oil companies only make 7%-9% on every dollar they bring in. Heck, the government makes twice as much money on gasoline than the oil companies. Oil companies do not have very high margins and are taxed and regulated a good amount by the government. I'm not saying that they deserve tax breaks or special treatment, but the costs of taxes and regulations are passed onto two

  • Comments from Plosser and Paulson Drives Dollar Higher-

    US officials are out in force this morning talking up the dollar and attempting to restore some stability in the financial markets. With US Treasury Secretary Paulson saying that “a strong dollar is really very important” and Fed President Plosser calling for a rate hike before the economy turns around, it is not surprising to see the Euro below 1.59.

    A strong dollar is important because it helps to reduce inflationary pressures. If oil falls back down to $100 a barrel, half of the Fed’s problems would be solved. Consumers would become more liberal with their spending while businesses would become more optimistic.

    For companies like American Express, more liberal consumer spending is exactly what they need. According to last night’s earnings report, the bank’s most affluent cardholders spent less on discretionary purchases in the second quarter. It seems that even their Black Card holders are cutting back, illustrating how widespread the pain in consumer sector has been.

  • Correlation Between the Dollar and Fed Fund Futures-

    This article examines some of the correlations that we talk about regularly, between USD/JPY and stocks or the EUR/USD and oil. The premise of this article is that these correlations may be fading, even though USD/JPY has traded in sync with the Dow today while the positive correlation between the EUR/USD and oil prices remain intact.

    Correlations run hot and cold and even though the Wall Street Journal Article may have a point, there will always be times when correlations are strong and weak.

  • Money Minute: Vytorin, Banks, Bernanke-

  • The Bloomberg Edge: Short Sales on Stock Top $1 Trillion
  • Polish Central Bank Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged in May- by E
  • Brazil Central Bank Raises Interest Rates to 12.25%- by Edward Hugh: Barcelona
  • T-Bill Versus Fed Funds- This is yet another interesting relationship. For useful forecasting, you may want to compare it to the previous entry concerning S&P versus 10 year yield valuations.

    Fed funds rates tend to lag 90 day T-Bill rates in direction, by the appearance of these charts. This relationship is interesting because the markets in flight to safety often guides the fed via demand for 90 day T-Bills. Notice how 1974 is a trough in both the spread ratio: (T-Bill - Fed Funds)/Fed Funds as well as S&P valuation. This coincided with a deep recession coincident with oil shocks.


  • Bush Offers Assurance on Economy-

    PlusBush Offers Assurance on EconomyBush Offers Assurance on EconomyThe Associated PressIn his weekly radio address, President Bush is stepping up pressure on Congress to work to help restore confidence in the housing finance industry. (July 19)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

  • Bernanke Tries to Reassure Lawmakers on Economy-

  • Economy Down, Business Up for Repo Man-

  • Economy worries rock Wall St.-

    Jul 15 - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy is facing "significant downside risks", which was not received well on Wall Street. The Dow dropped 92 points to 10,962. The S&P 500 lost 13 points to 1,214. The Nasdaq rallied 2 points to 2,215. Crude oil had its biggest one-day dollar drop in 17 years. Conway Gittens reports.

  • Economy: Bush Reassures, Bernanke Worries-

  • More Historic Actions (Potentially) by the Fed- Yawn. This is getting so old. Any problem in America.... Print more money, and hand out corporate welfare. Did anyone not see this coming? Oh well, the market reversed temporarily on the joyous sounds of helicopters in the distance. I haven't brought out this picture in months - I've missed it. I continue to laugh in the face of "strong dollar" proponents. Everything we do is a destruction of those current greenbacks in your pocket.
  • Sen. Jim Bunning fixated on Fed messes- Senator Jim Bunning (R-Kentucky) joins Ron Paul (R-Texas) as one of the few elected officials who understand one of the major reasons that financial markets and the economy are in the condition they are in today - the Federal Reserve.

    In prepared remarks made earlier today as part the Senate Banking Committee hearing (hat tip hardwinterwheat) , Sen. Bunning made the following comments:
    I'm deeply concerned about what the Fed has done in the last year and in the last decade. Chairman Greenspan's easy money in the late 90s and then following the tech bust inflated the housing bubble and created the mess we are in today. Chairman Bernanke's easy money in the last year has undermined the dollar and sent oil to a new high every day and an almost doubling since the rate cuts started.
  • Bernanke: Economy Faces 'Numerous Difficulties'-

    PlusBernanke: Economy Faces 'Numerous Difficulties'Bernanke: Economy Faces 'Numerous Difficulties'The Associated PressFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the fragile economy is facing 'numerous difficulties' including persistent strains in financial markets, rising joblessness and housing problems. (July 15)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

  • Bush: 'We Will Come Through This Challenge'-

    BusinessBush: 'We Will Come Through This Challenge'Bush: 'We Will Come Through This Challenge'The Associated PressPresident Bush says while this has been a difficult time for many families economically he is certain that steps his administration has taken will help turn things around and that the country will shake off this slowdown. (July 15)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

  • Stocks begin bear market-

    Jul 2 - A steep slide pushed the Dow and Nasdaq to close in bear market territory as a spike in oil to a record near $144 a barrel fueled inflation and economic jitters.The Dow tumbled 166 points to 11,215. The S&P 500 fell 23 points to 1,261. The Nasdaq shed 2.3 percent, or 53 points, to 2,251. Crude oil jumped $2.60 to a record of $143.57 a barrel.Conway Gittens reports

  • This Bud's for InBev-

    Jul 14 - A month after its first official bid, InBev finally signs a deal to take over Budweiser parent Anheuser-Busch. After 150 years as a family business, Anheuser-Busch agrees to a $52 billion dollar takeover bid from Belgium's InBev. Bobbi Rebell reports.

  • Fed Adopts Plan to Curb Shady Mortgage Practices-

  • Mortgage Crisis
  • Fed plans new rules in subprime market- Fed plans new rules to protect future homebuyers

    Tuesday July 8, 9:46 am ET

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, trying to stabilize a shaky U.S. financial system, may give squeezed Wall Street firms more time to tap the central bank's emergency loan program, chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.

    And, in an effort to prevent a repeat of the current mortgage mess, Bernanke said the Fed next week will issue new rules aimed at protecting future homebuyers from dubious lending practices.

    The rules will crack down on a range of shady lending practices that has burned many of the nation's riskiest "subprime" borrowers -- those with spotty credit or low incomes -- who were hardest hit by the housing and credit debacles. The plan would apply to new loans made by thousands of lenders of all types, including banks and brokers.
  • More thoughts on Fannie and Freddie-

    U.S. plan to save Fannie and Freddie

  • Regional Banks Crushed- I was (semi) joking in last week's piece about "Whose Bottom Will It Be?" - that after this round of bailouts we'll rally and then we'll repeat this whole process in a few months and the next bottom would be the Merrill Lynch (MER)/Washington Mutual (WM) "bottom". Apparently, I won't have to wait that long. WaMu, America's largest S&L if my memory serves, is down 26% and now trades in the $3s. Might as well be the kiss of death once you are under $5. A couple of other major regional banks National City Corp (NCC) down 26% to $3.30, Zions Bancorp (ZION) down 20%, and Sovereign Bankcorp (SOV) down 14% to low $6s.
  • Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done...- It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
  • Bernanke, Paulson Urge More Regulatory Powers-

    PlusBernanke, Paulson Urge More Regulatory PowersBernanke, Paulson Urge More Regulatory PowersThe Associated PressFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told Congress Thursday that new regulatory powers are needed to insulate the national economy from damage if a big Wall Street firm were to fail. (July 10)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

  • Unemployment Data Shows Ongoing Weakness-

  • Fed chief: Gov't needs more power when firms fail- Fed chief: Gov't needs more power when firms fail

    WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told Congress Thursday that new regulatory powers are needed to insulate the national economy from damage if a big Wall Street firm collapses.

    Their recommendations were part of a broader debate before the House Financial Services Committee about the best ways to revamp the country's antiquated regulatory system. The idea is to brace the system to better respond to modern-day crises like the housing and credit debacles that have badly bruised the economy.

    Both Bernanke and Paulson endorsed creating new procedures by which the government can guide an orderly liquidation of a failing investment bank in an effort to minimize any fallout that might be inflicted on the broader financial system and the overall economy. Such procedures, which are in place for commercial banks, might have made the dissolution of investment firm Bear Stearns more orderly.
  • Are Either Low Interest Rates or Speculation Raising Holdings of Oil and Other Minerals?- Everyone is looking for someone to blame for high prices of oil and other mineral and agricultural commodities.    Speculators (among others) are high on the list, followed by the Federal Reserve.    While I don’t think blame is necessarily the right concept here, I have been arguing that low real interest rates have worked to raise [...]
  • Fed to Curb Shady Home-lending Practices-

  • Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done...- It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
  • PAUL: Personal Freedoms and the Internet-

    PAUL: Personal Freedoms and the Internet
    by Ron Paul
    June 30, 2008

    The most basic principle to being a free American is the notion that we as individuals are responsible for our own lives and decisions. We do not have the right to rob our neighbors to make up for our mistakes, neither does our neighbor have any right to tell us how to live, so long as we aren’t infringing on their rights. Freedom to make bad decisions is inherent in the freedom to make good ones. If we are only free to make good decisions, we are not really free.

    Socialist ideologies blur this line between self reliance and government control because the mistakes of the individual are spread to everyone else. Thus the government becomes very interested in your decisions and way of life, with the justification that you could make a mistake others will have to pay for. The end result is, of course, that everyone loses privacy and control over their own lives. Whether they realize it or not, they are no longer truly free.

  • An odd choice of images for the new FDIC ad- The irony of this new FDIC ad amid soaring inflation around the world, rising gold prices, and hyper-inflation in Zimbabwe (where you see similar looking currency) is quite rich.

    The bill shown above is actually the real deal, having come into existence around the time of the New Deal, as noted in this Wikipedia entry on large denomination U.S. currency:
  • Government Bonds: Not So Vigilant-

    I have been bearish on government bonds since March this year and have repeatedly warned that they were an overpriced asset class, saying at the time: “… one should be cognizant of the fact that an investment in a 10-year Treasury Note will by definition lock in a total return of 3.5% over the next 10 years. This sounds unsustainable and I find it difficult to see the long-term investment merit of such an investment. Long-dated bond prices could be hit hard once yields adjust to more realistic levels.” (See “Long Bonds in Injury Time”, March 28, 2008.)

  • AP Q-and-A: on Your ID, a Federal Conflict-

    PlusAP Q-and-A: on Your ID, a Federal ConflictAP Q-and-A: on Your ID, a Federal ConflictThe Associated PressThe AP's Larry Margasak talks with John Seigenthaler about how the federal government is contradicting its own advice when it comes to using and protecting millions of Social Security numbers printed on documents. (July 2)HELLO, I'M JOHN SEIGENTHALER. MILLIONS OF AMERICANS CARRY ONE IN THEIR WALLET OR PURSE ... A GOVERNMENT-ISSUED DOCUMENT LIKE A MEDICARE CARD WITH A SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER. THE GOVERNMENT'S ADVICE IS TO PROTECT THAT NUMBER, NOT GIVING IT OUT. BUT LARRY MARGASAK OF THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS FOUND OUT THE GOVERNMENT SEEMS TO BE CONTRADICTING ITS OWN ADVICE ... LARRY, THANKS FOR JOINING US. FOR THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, I'M JOHN SEIGENTHALER.

  • Feds Ignoring Own Advice on ID Theft-

  • EURUSD: U.S. Interest Rates Unchanged. Now What?- On June 25, at 2:15 PM, the Federal Reserve did the expected and left U.S. interest rates unchanged at 2%, albeit "signaling rising worries about inflation risks." (The Wall Street Journal)

    Going into the announcement, the general expectation of the analysts quoted in the financial media was for the USD to "come under a little bit of pressure'' after the news. And it did: The buck first gained, but then lost to the euro, pushing the EURUSD exchange rate about 100 pips higher in the afternoon.

    The question now is: Was that all of the "pressure" the USD would see, or is there more to come?

    Well, with the Fed's decision out of the way, all eyes now are on the European Central Bank that meets next week to decide on interest rates in the Eurozone. And the ECB has been talking "inflation," hinting they may not sit on their hands like the Fed did on June 25.
  • Fed holds rates steady-

    Jun 25 - US interest rates remain at historic lows, but worries remain about inflation. The Federal Reserve kept its Fed Funds rate at just two percent, but released a carefully worded statement outlining concerns about the US economy. Bobbi Rebell reports from New York.

  • Fed holds rates steady
  • The Fed’s Balancing Act-

    Today the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) met to discuss monetary policy and did what was widely expected—nothing. By holding the fed funds target rate at 2%, the FOMC is breaking its streak of seven straight meetings with rate cuts. Since late last summer, when the credit crisis first started to impact the financial markets, the Fed lowered rates aggressively from 5.25% down to 2% over the course of nine months. Those rate cuts appear to have helped the economy avoid the worst of the possible credit crisis scenarios and now the greater concern for the economy is inflation during a period of slow economic growth. There are bound to be critics of the FOMC’s decision—because there always are—but it was likely the correct path at this time.

  • Federal Reserve Leaves Key Rate Unchanged
  • Marc Faber: Ben Bernanke is gold buyers best friend 20080318-

    Marc Faber on 2008.03.18 on CNBC says that in short term gold could easily go down 20% but in long run, due to Mr Bernanke policy, gold will go much higher against the dollar, and the dollar will be worthless.

  • Paul Van Eeden about monetary policy of the FED on CNBC-

    Paul Van Eeden, of Cranberry Capital, and CNBC's Steve Liesman on CNBC 2008.05.28

  • Jim Rogers: Ben Bernanke should take economics 101-

    There is no bubble in commodities and sombody's been teaching Bernanke economy since October/November 2007, when Bernanke said under oath, before Congress, that weakening of dollar doesn't affect american consumer, says Jim Rogers on Bloomberg on 2008.06.05

  • Jim Rogers: Bernanke should be fired 2008.03.19-

    The Fed has given up its mandate to protect the dollar so it's time to do away with the Fed, says Jim Rogers in Singapore, on CNBC

  • Marc Faber on India stock market, FED, us market-

    According to Investment Guru, Marc Faber, the markets may get oversold in the next few months and then see a rally. New highs are pretty much out of question, he told CNBC-TV18. The Sensex may test 14,000 levels before slipping to 12,000 levels. original location: http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/22/21/newsvideo/327434 .

  • CNBC Ron Paul grills Bernanke, traders cheering 2008.02.27-

    Congresman Ron Paul asks questions to Ben Bernanke during FED chairman testimony on 2008.02.27. CNBC anchor Rick Santelli talks about reaction of traders in Chicago market during Ron Paul questions.

  • Jim Rogers: FED is using taxpayers money to buy BS maseratis-

    2008.03.17 Jim Rogers on Bloomberg: FED action is outrageous and FED is using taxpayers money to buy Bear Sterns Maseratis. original url: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vpsp3dpnTUuA.asf .

  • "Bernanke is an idiot" - Jim Rogers on Bloomberg 2008.01.18-

    Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Susan Li from Shanghai about China's decision to impose price curbs on meat, eggs and cooking oil, the outlook for agricultural commodities and the yuan. The Chinese currency posted a sixth weekly gain, the longest stretch in seven months, on speculation the government is allowing it to appreciate to cool the economic expansion and bring inflation down from an 11-year high. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2L4eqCeriyM

  • Jim Rogers: Ben Bernanke should take economics 101
  • US Stock Markets Decline
  • 4/26/2005- Peter Schiff On Squawk Box
  • Tough Economy Discussion
  • Fed Decision and Market Reaction-

    The Fed announced their decision to cut the fed funds rate and the discount rate by 25 bp's.  The accompanying statement did not explicitly highlight economic weakness, the subject of market participants' greatest concern.

  • Is the Fed Ahead of the Curve?-

    The overwhelming sentiment of popular market pundits is that the Fed is out of touch and "behind the curve."  (One of our hopes for 2008 is that writers will find some other phrases to describe this tired sentiment).

    Other Expert Views

  • Emergency Fed Rate Cut (75bp) - And Why Resistance is Futile-

    Last night, the futures market showed the US markets dropping over 500 points on fears of an emerging recession in the US. While I was hiding in fear at the doctor’s office, Bernanke and the FOMC held an emergency meeting and cut interest rates by 75 bp, bringing both the Fed Funds Rate and the Discount Rate to 3.5% and 4%, respectively.

  • Fed minutes reveal dismal outlook on 2008- The Federal Reserve's FOMC Minutes for the December 11 meeting were released today and bloggers and analysts have been enthusiastically commenting. Many have said there is nothing we didn't already know, to wit: economic growth is slowing, inflation is moderate but worsening, the housing market is weak and there is still trouble in credit markets.

    I was struck, however, by the number of times the year 2009 was mentioned. It was as if the FOMC members had already written off 2008 as a lost cause and were looking forward to 2009. Note the following quotes forecasting a weak 2008.

    • "Real GDP was anticipated to increase at a rate noticeably below its potential in 2008."
  • Market’s Reaction to the Fed Rate Cut-

  • Inside a Fed Meeting-

    The First Amendment gives everyone the right to free speech and assembly.  This means that it is just fine to criticize government.  Especially during the last year, a favorite sport among financial pundits has been second-guessing the Fed.

    Discussing policy can be fun, but it is not the road to investment returns.  It is much better to study and to understand.  If we pay attention, we can make some successful predictions.

    Criticizing the Fed

  • Five Central Banks to Provide "Liquidity On Demand" to Money Markets Acts as Catalyst to Drive Treasuries Lower Inflation Higher-
    Wednesday December 12 2007, reprinted Friday December 14
    John Bougearel
  • FOMC December 11, 2007 Meeting-

    The FOMC decided on Tuesday to cut both the Federal Funds Rate and the Discount Rate by a quarter point. The key in the decision was not the rate cuts but the statement still holding inflation as a key element to their decision. As a result, you saw the bottom from the markets come out, especially in the XLF (the Select Financial Sector Fund). Here are a couple of graphs showing you what happened intra-day. Note how the S&P has completely blown through support.

  • Credit Recession Drives 10 Year Yields Down to Previous Outlier Lows- As noted in earlier reports, when an outlier event has occurred in the past ten years causing investors to seek the safe haven status of treasuries, the first thing the 10 year does is trade down to 4.10%. We have recently reached 4.13% as of last week. This is what happened during the LTCM crisis (totaling about a $4Billion bailout if memory serves) and the September 11 terrorist attack on the WTC.
  • Taking The Mystery Out of Fed Forecast-

    The Federal Reserve announced plans to take the secrecy out of their policy-making, explaining they will take the effort to disclose more information concerning economic forecasts. Details regarding growth and inflation objectives will also be less mysterious. Eyes wide shut?- If there was any doubt about the true nature of this market and this financial system, there should be none now. The market reversed higher on rumors that the Fed planned a rate cut and then zoomed even higher on Mister Softie's quarterly results and some happy talk by Countrywide Financial. Bulls are desperate to keep the drunken party going and perhaps they will with the likes of GOOG, RIMM and AAPL - fine companies all - leading the way. But there is one problem for the bulls however; this was all in the script.

  • Does the Big R (= recession) lie in store for the US?-

    For culinary delight and extreme hospitality, the Big Easy (New Orleans) ranks top of the log. But these attributes are of little use when trying to figure out the lie of the US economic land. For help on this front I have turned to the speakers at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference where I have been spending the past few days.

  • Long term treasury yields looking to climb- As you know, I have remained tilted toward the $TYX rising in the big picture as US creditors finally say 'enough!' in secular fashion.