United States

• Sovereign Wealth Funds Starting To Turn Away From The U.S.- Since 2007, sovereign wealth funds have spent almost $80 billion to buy stakes in U.S. companies, in particular banks that were desperately in need of a capital infusion. Now, the International Herald Tribune is reporting that the lender of last resort may be having second thoughts. Even though most SWF don't have to report mark-to-market losses in public, they still want to make a return, and some high profile investments, such as those in Merrill Lynch (MER), are not turning out as expected. Many SWF are now entering "south-south" trades, or in other words, simply investing in other emerging economies. While the moves are being made to not only look for higher return, south-south trades also prevent emerging economies (many of which got their start-up capital from the West) from simply recycling their funds back into these same economies. Oil-exporting countries for one are looking to hedge against oil price fluctuations by becoming underweight assets correlated with oil prices, i.e., just about everything U.S. based.
• Wife of Slain Federal Agent Speaks Out-

  PlusWife of Slain Federal Agent Speaks OutWife of Slain Federal Agent Speaks OutThe Associated PressInvestigators continue to search for the suspect who shot and killed a federal agent outside a busy South Florida post office Tuesday. (Aug. 6)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• McCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'-

  PlusMcCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'McCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'The Associated PressJohn McCain says the U.S. needs an economic 'surge' to keep jobs in the country and create new ones. (Aug. 6)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• Fed leaves rates unchanged-

  Aug 5 - Interest rates are left unchanced, as the Fed expresses concerns about the US economy and inflation. The Fed Funds rate was left unchanged at 2 percent. The first quarter-point rate increase by the Fed is not priced in until early 2009, based on interest rate futures. Bobbi Rebell reports.

• Wall St. cheers Fed signal-

  Aug 5 - U.S. stocks surged nearly 3 percent across the board in the biggest one-day rally in four months as investors bet the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year.

• Wall Street Extends Rally After Fed Decision-

  BusinessWall Street Extends Rally After Fed DecisionWall Street Extends Rally After Fed DecisionThe Associated PressWall Street has barreled higher, lifting the Dow Jones industrials more than 330 points after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. (Aug. 5)Wall Street has barreled higher, lifting the Dow Jones industrials more than 330 points after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrials closed up 331 points at 11,615. The Standard and Poor's 500 index rose 35 to close at 1,284 and the Nasdaq rose 64 to settle at 2,349. The Fed said "economic activity expanded in the second-quarter" due in part to growth in consumer spending. Wall Street's worries about consumers have contributed to some of its big pullbacks in recent weeks. ___ ___, The Associated Press.

• Feds Charge 11 in Massive Retail Hacking Case-

  PlusFeds Charge 11 in Massive Retail Hacking CaseFeds Charge 11 in Massive Retail Hacking CaseThe Associated PressThe Department of Justice announced Tuesday that it had charged 11 people in connection with the hacking of nine major U.S. retailers and the theft and sale of more than 41 million credit and debit card numbers. (Aug. 5)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• BCSC revises 51-509 Rule for U.S. OTC issuers – Part 1- This entry is part 1 of 1 in the series BCSC revises 51-509 Rule for U.S. OTC issuersThe British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC) is proposing new rule changes along with the related companion policy’s and forms for issuers quoted in the U.S. over-the-counter markets (OTCBB) and pink sheets. These changes can be located [...]
• Unemployment Hits 5.7 Percent; Teens Hit Hardest-

• Study: biogas from manure could generate energy for millions in the U.S.-
  
  
  Converting livestock manure into a domestic renewable fuel source could generate enough electricity to meet up to three per cent of North America's entire consumption needs and lead to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), according to a paper published today by researchers from the University of Texas at Austin, in the Institute of Physics' Environmental Research Letters.
  
  The open access paper, 'Cow Power: The Energy and Emissions Benefits of Converting Manure to Biogas', has implications for all countries with livestock as it is one the few attempts to outline a procedure for quantifying the national amount of renewable energy that herds of cattle and other livestock can generate and the concomitant GHG emission reductions.
  
• Bush About-Face: U.S. to Talk to Iran-

• Fed Announcement and ADP Helps to Lift the Dollar-

  Positive economic data has continued to drive the US dollar higher. Payroll provider ADP reported a 9k rise in jobs this month. As one of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, this along with stronger consumer confidence numbers is good news going into this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. However don’t expect positive job growth in the month of July. The only thing that the ADP number suggests is that the number of job losses could be less severe than the prior month. The four week moving average of jobless claims have also fallen in the week ending July 19 even though initial claims climbed to 406,000. Nonetheless, we can not forget the countless layoff announcements that have surfaced over the past two months and the fact that US companies are cutting back.

  ADP has a track record of being notoriously optimistic about projecting payrolls. Non-farm payrolls dropped in each of the past six months but between January and June, the ADP employment survey on the other hand only dropped 2 out of the 6 months. ADP has consistently missed to the high side and we expect the same this month.

• Barack Obama: Meeting with Economic Advisors
• The Minimum Wagenator- California's Gubernator Arnold Schwarzeneggar is looking to become the country's first "Minimum Wagenator" in an attempt to hasten the Golden State's budget stalemate that has thus far failed to close any of the state's $15 billion fiscal spending gap.
  
  The details can be found in this report :
  

  Schwarzenegger vows to cut workers' pay Thursday
  
  SACRAMENTO -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Monday postponed his plan to eliminate about 22,000 temporary, part-time and contract workers and impose a hiring freeze because of the state budget impasse.
  

• Ailing Homeowners Could Soon Get Boost
• US Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion-

  Even though the stock market dropped by the largest amount since 2000, the US dollar is shaking off risk aversion to rebound back towards its monthly highs against the Japanese Yen. I’ve been keeping a close eye on gold prices and the fall in gold this morning confirms that the markets have not been spooked by the drop in the Dow. The strong durable goods numbers dollar bulls hope. The stock market could actually recover today since the durables number indicates that not all businesses have cut back their spending.

  The divergence between the price action of the dollar, the stock market, gold and oil prices indicate that risk aversion yesterday was limited. Even though the dollar dropped against the Japanese Yen, it rallied against all of the other G10 currencies. Within all of the volatility yesterday, the dollar index actually rallied.

• Paulson talks up mortgage plan-

  Jul 22- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is working to build support for his plan to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The plan could cost taxpayers as much as $25 billion according to the Congressional Budget Office. Bobbi Rebell reports.

• The 3Ps Push the Dollar Higher-

  The US dollar continues to recover this morning on the aftermath of the 3Ps - Paulson, Plosser and price of oil. Oil prices are trading on the $125 handle and since last Monday they have fallen more than 14 percent. If oil prices reach $100 a barrel, half of the Fed’s problems would be solved; Consumers would become more liberal with their spending while businesses would become more optimistic.

  As for Plosser and Paulson, the Fed President called for interest rates to be increased sooner rather than later, reminding the traders that the Fed still has their eyes on a rate hike.

  US Treasury Secretary Paulson was confident that Congress would approve his housing rescue plan this week and so far they are moving forward as planned, with some adjustments.

  Paulson proposed increasing Fannie and Freddie’s credit line with the Treasury and permission to buy stock in the mortgage giants. The deal that is likely to come out of the House and Senate would permit the government to inject billions of dollars in Fannie and Freddie and to insure up to $300B in refinanced mortgages. The plan is up for vote at the House of Representatives today.

• President Bush: "Wall Street got drunk"
• Alternative Energy & Conventional Energy: Is An Image Worth A Thousand Words?- It wasn't long ago that people still believed the price of energy commodities - and crude oil in particular - had a greater impact on alt energy stocks than did general movements in equity markets or even fundamental factors. The...
• For Fed Work, Big Biz Trumps Small Firms- PlusFor Fed Work, Big Biz Trumps Small FirmsFor Fed Work, Big Biz Trumps Small FirmsThe Associated PressAn Associated Press investigation finds companies near Washington get the bulk of federal contracts awarded to small businesses. But as the AP's Lee Powell reports, many of these firms are not so small.
• Comments from Plosser and Paulson Drives Dollar Higher-

  US officials are out in force this morning talking up the dollar and attempting to restore some stability in the financial markets. With US Treasury Secretary Paulson saying that “a strong dollar is really very important” and Fed President Plosser calling for a rate hike before the economy turns around, it is not surprising to see the Euro below 1.59.

  A strong dollar is important because it helps to reduce inflationary pressures. If oil falls back down to $100 a barrel, half of the Fed’s problems would be solved. Consumers would become more liberal with their spending while businesses would become more optimistic.

  For companies like American Express, more liberal consumer spending is exactly what they need. According to last night’s earnings report, the bank’s most affluent cardholders spent less on discretionary purchases in the second quarter. It seems that even their Black Card holders are cutting back, illustrating how widespread the pain in consumer sector has been.

• Correlation Between the Dollar and Fed Fund Futures-

  This article examines some of the correlations that we talk about regularly, between USD/JPY and stocks or the EUR/USD and oil. The premise of this article is that these correlations may be fading, even though USD/JPY has traded in sync with the Dow today while the positive correlation between the EUR/USD and oil prices remain intact.

  Correlations run hot and cold and even though the Wall Street Journal Article may have a point, there will always be times when correlations are strong and weak.

• Money Minute: Vytorin, Banks, Bernanke-

• All’s not well with the U.S. economy-

  Here is an article from the NYT that everyone in business, venture capital, and the stock market should read.

  The “Highlights”

  “I was a relative optimist, but I’ve certainly become more pessimistic,” said Alan S. Blinder, an economist at Princeton, and a former vice chairman of the board of governors at the Federal Reserve. “The financial system looks substantially worse now than it did a month ago. If the Freddie and Fannie bailout were to fail, it could get a hell of a lot worse. If we get more bank failures, we have the possibility of seeing more of these pictures of people standing in line to pull their money out. That could really scare consumers.”

  In one respect, Mr. Blinder added, this is like the Great Depression. “We haven’t seen this kind of travail in the financial markets since the 1930s,” he said.

• Bush Offers Assurance on Economy-

  PlusBush Offers Assurance on EconomyBush Offers Assurance on EconomyThe Associated PressIn his weekly radio address, President Bush is stepping up pressure on Congress to work to help restore confidence in the housing finance industry. (July 19)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• Bernanke Tries to Reassure Lawmakers on Economy-

• Economy Down, Business Up for Repo Man-

• Economy worries rock Wall St.-

  Jul 15 - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy is facing "significant downside risks", which was not received well on Wall Street. The Dow dropped 92 points to 10,962. The S&P 500 lost 13 points to 1,214. The Nasdaq rallied 2 points to 2,215. Crude oil had its biggest one-day dollar drop in 17 years. Conway Gittens reports.

• Economy: Bush Reassures, Bernanke Worries-

• Bernanke: Economy Faces 'Numerous Difficulties'-

  PlusBernanke: Economy Faces 'Numerous Difficulties'Bernanke: Economy Faces 'Numerous Difficulties'The Associated PressFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the fragile economy is facing 'numerous difficulties' including persistent strains in financial markets, rising joblessness and housing problems. (July 15)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• Bush: 'We Will Come Through This Challenge'-

  BusinessBush: 'We Will Come Through This Challenge'Bush: 'We Will Come Through This Challenge'The Associated PressPresident Bush says while this has been a difficult time for many families economically he is certain that steps his administration has taken will help turn things around and that the country will shake off this slowdown. (July 15)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• Stocks begin bear market-

  Jul 2 - A steep slide pushed the Dow and Nasdaq to close in bear market territory as a spike in oil to a record near $144 a barrel fueled inflation and economic jitters.The Dow tumbled 166 points to 11,215. The S&P 500 fell 23 points to 1,261. The Nasdaq shed 2.3 percent, or 53 points, to 2,251. Crude oil jumped $2.60 to a record of $143.57 a barrel.Conway Gittens reports

• This Bud's for InBev-

  Jul 14 - A month after its first official bid, InBev finally signs a deal to take over Budweiser parent Anheuser-Busch. After 150 years as a family business, Anheuser-Busch agrees to a $52 billion dollar takeover bid from Belgium's InBev. Bobbi Rebell reports.

• This Bud's for InBev
• Budweiser InBev® Buyout At $70 Per Share reported by MSN and Reuters
• Fed Adopts Plan to Curb Shady Mortgage Practices-

• Mortgage Crisis
• More thoughts on Fannie and Freddie-

  U.S. plan to save Fannie and Freddie

• Gulf Countries Urged to Switch Currency Peg from the Dollar-

  The possibility that some Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates, might abandon their long-time pegs to the dollar has been getting increasing attention recently (for example, from Feldstein and, especially, Setser).   It makes sense.  The combination of high oil prices, rapid growth, a tightly fixed exchange rate, and the big depreciation of the dollar against other currencies (especially the euro, important for Gulf imports) was always going to be a recipe for strong money inflows and inflation in these countries.

• Will Fannie and Freddie Go Belly Up?
• Ron Paul explains how we got into this mess- From Ron Paul's Campaign for Liberty come these thoughts about how we got into such a mess with a financial system apparently falling apart at the seams and soaring inflation for nearly everything but the consumer price index.
  
  The entire statement was to be read into the Congressional Record earlier this week - there are some 572 comments on the original article at Campaign for Liberty.
  

  The financial crisis, still in its early stages, is apparent to everyone: gasoline prices over $4 a gallon; skyrocketing education and medical-care costs; the collapse of the housing bubble; the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble; stockmarkets plunging; unemployment rising;, massive underemployment; excessive government debt; and unmanageable personal debt. Little doubt exists as to whether we’ll get stagflation. The question that will soon be asked is: When will the stagflation become an inflationary depression?
  

• McCain: 'will Stop Out of Control Spending'
• Bernanke, Paulson Urge More Regulatory Powers-

  PlusBernanke, Paulson Urge More Regulatory PowersBernanke, Paulson Urge More Regulatory PowersThe Associated PressFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told Congress Thursday that new regulatory powers are needed to insulate the national economy from damage if a big Wall Street firm were to fail. (July 10)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• Unemployment Data Shows Ongoing Weakness-

• Fed chief: Gov't needs more power when firms fail- Fed chief: Gov't needs more power when firms fail
  
  WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told Congress Thursday that new regulatory powers are needed to insulate the national economy from damage if a big Wall Street firm collapses.
  
  Their recommendations were part of a broader debate before the House Financial Services Committee about the best ways to revamp the country's antiquated regulatory system. The idea is to brace the system to better respond to modern-day crises like the housing and credit debacles that have badly bruised the economy.
  
  Both Bernanke and Paulson endorsed creating new procedures by which the government can guide an orderly liquidation of a failing investment bank in an effort to minimize any fallout that might be inflicted on the broader financial system and the overall economy. Such procedures, which are in place for commercial banks, might have made the dissolution of investment firm Bear Stearns more orderly.
  
• Did GDP Fall Within the 1st Quarter or Not?-

  Over the past month, I , citing Feldstein, have said that if one looks at available information on monthly GDP, available from estimates of MacroAdvisers, that output declined within the first quarter of the year, even though as standardly reported GDP was higher in QI overall than it had been in the last quarter of 2007. But, as it turns out, there is some ambiguity to the question.

• Fed to Curb Shady Home-lending Practices-

• No End in Sight for Housing Market Decline-

  The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is one of the broadest gauges of sale activity in the housing sector. Unfortunately, this past week brought more bad news to those hoping the U.S. housing recession may be bottoming out as the PHSI continued its steep decline. The report indicated that signed contracts for purchasing previously owned homes experienced its sharpest drop in nine months, declining 4.7% through the month of May. In comparison to the same period a year ago, activity has fallen 14.6%. The South experienced the biggest contraction (at -7.1%) propelled by the plummeting Miami market, followed by the Midwest (-6.0%), the Northeast (-2.9%), and the West (-1.3).

• 3 Reasons Why the Dollar Rally Continues-

  July 4th has come and gone yet the dollar rally is here to stay. There are 3 things driving the US dollar higher today:

  1. Hawkish Comments from Janet Yellen
  
  San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen spoke in San Diego this morning. Like her counterparts at the Fed, she is paving the road for a third or fourth quarter rate hike. For dollar bulls, Yellen’s concerns about inflation and less pessimistic take on growth were encouraging.

  On inflation, Yellen said that the Fed will not allow a wage-price spiral to develop and on growth, she was “reassured by recent data” which suggests that the “downside have, so far, been avoided.” It is important to note that she does expect weak growth to continue for the remainder of the year and for the unemployment rate to rise further. Although Yellen is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, the currency market is eating up any hints that the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive than the ECB with raising interest rates over the next 12 months.

  2. Euro: No Bias Equals No Action

• Michael Lewis: 3 Rules to Survive in the Wall Street Massacre-

  With the outlook for the economy and financial markets rather gloomy, it is good sometimes to reflect on matters from a different perspective. In the article below Michael Lewis shares with us, in a humorous manner, his ideas on how we can survive the current mess. Lewis is the author of Liar’s Poker, The New New Thing, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, and The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game.

  The first thing you need to know about recessions is that they don’t signal the end of anything on Wall Street.

  

• Utah Takes the Plunge- Utah just became the first state to close government offices on Friday, and go to a four day work week beginning August 1. The Office of the Governor estimates that 1,000 of 3,000 state buildings will be closed on Fridays, cutting energy costs by about 20 percent. Minnesota is also considering such a move.
  
  You can read the Press Release yourself, and they also have an excel spreadsheet with more data on the energy savings from this move.
  
  Utah used six representative office buildings in its spreadsheet to detail the savings involved:
  
  1) The annual energy savings for the state would be $123,220, or 13,653 MBtu.
  
  2) The annual fuel reduction for employees would be 76,840 gallons of gasoline, or $312,971.
  
  While these savings don't seem like much, they are based on only six buildings, while 1,000 buildings will be closed. My other thoughts on this:
  
• This Buds For You - And By You, I Mean InBev- As a former Missouri native going up in the suburbs of the St. Louis area, I had come to think of Anheuser-Busch and the Clydesdale's as part of my identity, even before I was old enough to drink. Along with McDonnell-Douglas (now gone and replaced by Boeing), AB was part of the fabric of St. Louis. Just about every person you knew either worked for Mac or AB, or at least had a family member or friend who did. When McDonnell-Douglas was finally taken over by Boeing, it felt like the city was losing its security blanket, even though most of the employees and operations stayed. Now that Anheuser-Busch may fall victim to a takeover attempt by InBev, it feels more like potentially losing a friend.
  
• ECB tightens rates by a quarter point, now 4.25%-

  >Wow, now we are looking at a good open!

• PAUL: Personal Freedoms and the Internet-

  PAUL: Personal Freedoms and the Internet
  by Ron Paul
  June 30, 2008

  The most basic principle to being a free American is the notion that we as individuals are responsible for our own lives and decisions. We do not have the right to rob our neighbors to make up for our mistakes, neither does our neighbor have any right to tell us how to live, so long as we aren’t infringing on their rights. Freedom to make bad decisions is inherent in the freedom to make good ones. If we are only free to make good decisions, we are not really free.

  Socialist ideologies blur this line between self reliance and government control because the mistakes of the individual are spread to everyone else. Thus the government becomes very interested in your decisions and way of life, with the justification that you could make a mistake others will have to pay for. The end result is, of course, that everyone loses privacy and control over their own lives. Whether they realize it or not, they are no longer truly free.

• An odd choice of images for the new FDIC ad- The irony of this new FDIC ad amid soaring inflation around the world, rising gold prices, and hyper-inflation in Zimbabwe (where you see similar looking currency) is quite rich.
  
  The bill shown above is actually the real deal, having come into existence around the time of the New Deal, as noted in this Wikipedia entry on large denomination U.S. currency:
• Government Bonds: Not So Vigilant-

  I have been bearish on government bonds since March this year and have repeatedly warned that they were an overpriced asset class, saying at the time: “… one should be cognizant of the fact that an investment in a 10-year Treasury Note will by definition lock in a total return of 3.5% over the next 10 years. This sounds unsustainable and I find it difficult to see the long-term investment merit of such an investment. Long-dated bond prices could be hit hard once yields adjust to more realistic levels.” (See “Long Bonds in Injury Time”, March 28, 2008.)

• AP Q-and-A: on Your ID, a Federal Conflict-

  PlusAP Q-and-A: on Your ID, a Federal ConflictAP Q-and-A: on Your ID, a Federal ConflictThe Associated PressThe AP's Larry Margasak talks with John Seigenthaler about how the federal government is contradicting its own advice when it comes to using and protecting millions of Social Security numbers printed on documents. (July 2)HELLO, I'M JOHN SEIGENTHALER. MILLIONS OF AMERICANS CARRY ONE IN THEIR WALLET OR PURSE ... A GOVERNMENT-ISSUED DOCUMENT LIKE A MEDICARE CARD WITH A SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER. THE GOVERNMENT'S ADVICE IS TO PROTECT THAT NUMBER, NOT GIVING IT OUT. BUT LARRY MARGASAK OF THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS FOUND OUT THE GOVERNMENT SEEMS TO BE CONTRADICTING ITS OWN ADVICE ... LARRY, THANKS FOR JOINING US. FOR THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, I'M JOHN SEIGENTHALER.

• Feds Ignoring Own Advice on ID Theft-

• EURUSD: U.S. Interest Rates Unchanged. Now What?- On June 25, at 2:15 PM, the Federal Reserve did the expected and left U.S. interest rates unchanged at 2%, albeit "signaling rising worries about inflation risks." (The Wall Street Journal)
  
  Going into the announcement, the general expectation of the analysts quoted in the financial media was for the USD to "come under a little bit of pressure'' after the news. And it did: The buck first gained, but then lost to the euro, pushing the EURUSD exchange rate about 100 pips higher in the afternoon.
  
  The question now is: Was that all of the "pressure" the USD would see, or is there more to come?
  
  Well, with the Fed's decision out of the way, all eyes now are on the European Central Bank that meets next week to decide on interest rates in the Eurozone. And the ECB has been talking "inflation," hinting they may not sit on their hands like the Fed did on June 25.
  
• Fed holds rates steady-

  Jun 25 - US interest rates remain at historic lows, but worries remain about inflation. The Federal Reserve kept its Fed Funds rate at just two percent, but released a carefully worded statement outlining concerns about the US economy. Bobbi Rebell reports from New York.

• Dow, Nasdaq snap losing streak
• Fed holds rates steady
• The Fed’s Balancing Act-

  Today the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) met to discuss monetary policy and did what was widely expected—nothing. By holding the fed funds target rate at 2%, the FOMC is breaking its streak of seven straight meetings with rate cuts. Since late last summer, when the credit crisis first started to impact the financial markets, the Fed lowered rates aggressively from 5.25% down to 2% over the course of nine months. Those rate cuts appear to have helped the economy avoid the worst of the possible credit crisis scenarios and now the greater concern for the economy is inflation during a period of slow economic growth. There are bound to be critics of the FOMC’s decision—because there always are—but it was likely the correct path at this time.

• 6/12/2006- Peter Schiff On CNBC Squawk Box
• Where to Invest While the US Economy Crumbles-

  Sentiment deteriorated further during the past week as oil prices rebounded, more bad news in the financial sector surfaced, economic woes mounted and inflationary pressures intensified, compounding already-jittery investors’ anxiety.

  

  Status Quo’s lyrics “Down down deeper and down” came to mind as global stock markets took a battering. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, for example, plunged by 3.8% over the week to below 12,000 – its lowest level since March. Commensurate with extreme bearishness, short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped to an all-time high during the week.

• Marc Faber: Ben Bernanke is gold buyers best friend 20080318-

  Marc Faber on 2008.03.18 on CNBC says that in short term gold could easily go down 20% but in long run, due to Mr Bernanke policy, gold will go much higher against the dollar, and the dollar will be worthless.

• Paul Van Eeden about monetary policy of the FED on CNBC-

  Paul Van Eeden, of Cranberry Capital, and CNBC's Steve Liesman on CNBC 2008.05.28

• Jim Rogers: Ben Bernanke should take economics 101-

  There is no bubble in commodities and sombody's been teaching Bernanke economy since October/November 2007, when Bernanke said under oath, before Congress, that weakening of dollar doesn't affect american consumer, says Jim Rogers on Bloomberg on 2008.06.05

• Marc Faber on India stock market, FED, us market-

  According to Investment Guru, Marc Faber, the markets may get oversold in the next few months and then see a rally. New highs are pretty much out of question, he told CNBC-TV18. The Sensex may test 14,000 levels before slipping to 12,000 levels. original location: http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/22/21/newsvideo/327434 .

• CNBC Ron Paul grills Bernanke, traders cheering 2008.02.27-

  Congresman Ron Paul asks questions to Ben Bernanke during FED chairman testimony on 2008.02.27. CNBC anchor Rick Santelli talks about reaction of traders in Chicago market during Ron Paul questions.

• Jim Rogers: FED is using taxpayers money to buy BS maseratis-

  2008.03.17 Jim Rogers on Bloomberg: FED action is outrageous and FED is using taxpayers money to buy Bear Sterns Maseratis. original url: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vpsp3dpnTUuA.asf .

• Jim Rogers: Bernanke should be fired 2008.03.19-

  The Fed has given up its mandate to protect the dollar so it's time to do away with the Fed, says Jim Rogers in Singapore, on CNBC

• "Bernanke is an idiot" - Jim Rogers on Bloomberg 2008.01.18-

  Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg's Susan Li from Shanghai about China's decision to impose price curbs on meat, eggs and cooking oil, the outlook for agricultural commodities and the yuan. The Chinese currency posted a sixth weekly gain, the longest stretch in seven months, on speculation the government is allowing it to appreciate to cool the economic expansion and bring inflation down from an 11-year high. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2L4eqCeriyM

• Jim Rogers: Ben Bernanke should take economics 101
• Economy Sags on Housing, Consumer Confidence
• When U.S. Stocks Decline, The Dollar Rallies- Is it worth trying to gauge the long-term trend in the U.S. dollar based on the trend in U.S. stocks?
  
  There is a persistent belief among many forex traders that trends in various global markets have a profound influence on the trends in currencies.
  
  The faith in inter-market correlations is strong because of the constant rumination of this idea in the financial press. Hardly a day goes by without somebody saying something like: “Higher oil prices sent the U.S. dollar down today, as rising energy costs are feared to slow down the U.S. economy.” Or, “The dollar gained today as a rally in the Dow restored investor confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy.”
  
  That's not to say that correlations between markets don't exist. They do, but they are always temporary.
  
  Still, at Elliott Wave International's Message Board, readers often ask us to verify them. One question that comes up frequently is this: "When U.S. stocks decline, the U.S. dollar rallies, and vice versa. Is this correct?" When trying to answer a question like that, you could go a couple of routes:
  
• US Stock Markets Decline
• Elliott Wave on Crude and the USD- USD & Crude Short Term Forecast Update
  
  USD
  
  The USD has completed a leading diagonal and is currently in a wave (2) correction. The current wave up is close to completion and we should see one more wave down to complete wave (2) down. Once this wave down completes, we should see a strong rally in wave (3) up.
  
  Crude
  
  Crude is currently in a wave (2) correction in wave [5] up. We should see minor downside to the 130 area before a strong rally in wave (3) up. Once wave [5] up completes we should see a sharp decline in Crude and a strong rally for the USD. We are expecting a big reversal day to signal the top of the rally for Crude in our target area of 150-155.
  
  The metals are also aligning for a sharp decline after the USD completes wave (2) down.
  
  USD Chart
  
• Is There Any Value In Stella Jones?-

  Value Investing

  A few months ago, I discussed my encounter with Warren Buffett, and promised that I would eventually analyze a stock using the value investing (VI) approach.

• Insider's Showing Faith in Resource America-

  In my previous article, which can be found here, I detailed why I believe that Resource America (REXI) is extremely undervalued.  Since that article, there have been two developments that have reinforced my belief that Resource America represents the chance to own a company that will without a doubt outperform the broader market in the years to come. 

• 4/26/2005- Peter Schiff On Squawk Box
• George Will: Americans Better Off Now Than in 2000
• Tough Economy Discussion
• Tom Brokaw interviews Warren Buffett
• Dr. Margo Thorning Discusses U.S. Economy on BBC
• The Economy and The Market are Headed Higher- It's The Economy ( don't be stupid ! ) I have written a number of times - the economy is not going into a dive. On Friday , April 18th , 2008 better-than-expected earnings results signaled a strengthening economy that may boost demand . ``The real gloomy scenario has been sort of ameliorated with some of these very positive earnings and the indication that the worst is behind us,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``There will be an uptick in energy demand with the renewed economic outlook for the second half of the year in particular.''

  The Global Economy is Growing -

  Caterpillar ( CAT) Results are a good indication of that growth The heavy equipment maker Caterpillar parlayed an increased reliance on international markets to surprisingly strong sales and a 13 percent jump in first-quarter profits, impressing investors who had expected the company to be slowed more by the weak American economy and dollar. The stock surged more than 8 percent in Friday trading after company easily beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates, benefiting from its strategy of diversification.
• Will the US Dollar Remain King?-

  A lesson covering the factors which will determine if the US Dollar remains king of the currency world.

• Economic Reality- Keith reports on the McCain campaign trying to say that Obama will be bad for the economy and calling him a tax and spend liberal, and jokes about McCain's "beer" gaffe. Ryan Lizza weighs in on whether McCain's economic plan for keeping the tax cuts and cutting spending is likely to happen.
• Ron Paul Schools Bernanke
• Paul Volcker on Charlie Rose
• Paul Volcker on the Financial Crisis
• Random Thoughts about the Euro-Yen Currency Pair- Clients have been asking about the Euro/Yen, Wilson from fxoperator.com, has also asked about the currency pairing. Furthermore, Denarii from TradingGoddess.com loves posting currency charts on her blogsite. So, here is a big overview of the Euro-Yen spread.
  
  Personally I Never think much about currency pairs, carry trades, etc. I stick to stock markets, bonds, grains, gold, and energies. Still, my style of financial analysis is versatile. Readers should know that I am first and foremost a market technician. That is my trademark. Secondarily, I am a financial analyst formulating thoughts on structural and cyclical forces exerting their influence on the financial markets.
  
  I am versatile, after mucho anos studying of the financial markets, that is, I could first address structural and cyclical forces of a given market, and secondarily glance at a chart for a visual or I could look at the chart and then take a stab at the forces influencing the chart.
  
• Merrill Lynch's Stock Price for the next 3-6 months- Thursday April 17 08 ~ reprinted Saturday April 19
  John Bougearel
  
  Merrill appears to have the "Right Stuff" ~ purely from a technical perspective for a range bound trade over the next 3-6 months.
  
  The low of the year at 37 was set a day before the Mar 18 FOMC meeting. The assumption is that the higher lows on March 31 at 39 and the April low at 42 will hold over the next several weeks and possibly the next several months until downside risks increase in the markets again. This is in part based on the markets outside up day response to its April 17 Q1 08 Earnings report signaling the stock price is now probably range bound between the Dec 10-11 FOMC meeting high and the Mar 17-18 FOMC meeting low. Yes, momentum is bearish and backfilling and tests of 39-42 is very possible over the near term. But, settling below the 40 strike looks to be a very low probability near term.
• The SP 500’s Five Year Cycle Vibration Strikes Again- Every five years the SP 500 undergoes a significant market vibration - going all the way back to August 1982, when the 1966-1982 equity bear market officially ended. Five years later, the stock market set a high in August 1987. Two months later the stock market had crashed 50% into October 19 1987. That was a sharp and short vibration but it was major. Five years later, it set another vibration low in October 1992. This was a minor vibration.
• Cycle Mania Rocks Stock Market! Read All About It!- Waz-zat you say? Cycles in the stock Market? Ahh, who you crappin! That ain't nuttin but Cycle-Babble to me. Shu' your mouth! Dat like saying der waz a bad moon-a-rising or some solar eclipse blotting the sun that shine over Wall Street. Oh, go on I says you don't 'spect me to believe all that nonesuch.
  
• Every Day Feels Like the 1987 Stock Market Crash-

  How High Can the 10 Year Jump on the March 7 08 Feb NFP Report?
  Last month the BLS reported -17,000 jobs being created for January. The BLS birth/death model accounted for a job loss of 378,000 jobs. Seasonally, the birth death model is always worst for January, but 378,000 is much worst than the statistical average job loss of about 225,000 jobs. Suffice it to say, the birth/death model is likely to be a modest bullish input for the Feb jobs report due out tomorrow. But I do not want to belabor the point; any upside surprise in payrolls will likely make little difference to the sense of gloom on Wall Street tomorrow.
  
  Big Downside Surprise to January NFP Expectations

• Stock Market to the Fed: "I Say Doctor, Ain't There Nuttin I can Do to Relieve this Belly Ache?"- The stock market has been violently ill for many a moon now. The upheaval in the economy has become so unpleasant that some have aptly nicknamed this "The Great Depression of 2008." It has a nice ring to it, and Rhyme's rather well.
• SoyBean Bull Campaign Takes a Well Deserved Pause after Doubling since August- March 6 2008 - orignally published March 4 2008 with a refreshed  chart
  
  
  
  
  One reason the soybean bull campaign is coming to a pause this week is a report that China may sell veggie oil from their gov't reserves to slow inflation. A more general reason is the potential for a US slowdown to curb demand (as seen in crude oil today). The aggressive fund buying as a hedge against the rapidly declining purchasing power of the dollar was absent today.
• Why I like Microsoft at 28 in 2008-

  February 18
  John Bougearel