Oil

• More winners in the commodity boom- First came the agriculture boom with soaring prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and other crops. Now, in the upper Midwest, many are benefiting from crude oil being pumped out of the Bakken shale formation via backyard oil wells creating millionaires in North Dakota at an astonishing rate.
  
  This AP report fills in some of the details:
  

  Oscar Stohler was raised in a sod house in western North Dakota and ranched there for nearly seven decades. He never gave much thought to what lay below the grass that fattened his cattle.
  
  When oilmen wanted to drill there last year, Stohler, 83, doubted oil would be found two miles underground on his property. He even joked about it.
  

• If you think gas prices are high, drive less!-

  Please bear with me, I don't mean to be facetious here. Now that oil is over $140/barrel and everyone has a theory about why the price is so high, I thought I'd join the party and throw in my two cents as well.

• Money Minute: Airline Cuts, Yahoo, Oil-

• Petrohawk Energy (HK) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Flying on Haynesville Shale News- Petrohawk Energy (HK) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) both are ripping up 9-11% in early action - right now anything associated with the Haynesville Shale is gold in this sector - not that the other natural gas players aren't doing great as well. [Jun 18: Will Encore Acquisition (EAC) be Bought Out?] Another name I've seen continuously on my top weekly performer list for 2 months now but have not been pulling the trigger (waiting the never surfacing "pullback") is Goodrich Petroleum (GDP). Chesapeake announced a new partnership last night and Petrohawk has a nice upgrade this AM.
• Bush Again Calls for Domestic Oil Drilling-

  PlusBush Again Calls for Domestic Oil DrillingBush Again Calls for Domestic Oil DrillingThe Associated PressDuring a press conference in the Rose Garden Wednesday, President Bush urged Americans to pressure Congress to allow more oil exploration in the United States. (July 2)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• Oil Sets Another Record, Above $140-

• PAUL: Rising Energy Prices and the Falling Dollar-

  PAUL: Rising Energy Prices and the Falling Dollar
  Congressman Ron Paul
  June 9, 2008

  Oil prices are on the minds of many Americans as gas hits $4 a gallon, and continues to surge. How high can prices go? How can we solve these problems? What, or who, is to blame?

• Oil and gold contest update #5- Can you stand the excitement? With one more trading day left in the fourth edition of the "Guess the price of oil and gold" contest, there has been just enough movement over the last week to shake up the top ten vaulting TP from seventh place to first.
  Linda M was knocked out of the top spot, CW moved up one notch, and lookee who's there sneaking up into spot number four, maybe thinking about a last minute run with a bold guess of $145 for crude oil (the gold guess was a good one up until this morning).
  
  Over the last week the price of oil rose from $135 a barrel to $140 and gold awoke from its recent slumber to tack on more than $25 to end the week at about $928.
  
• Oil Sets Another Record, Above $140-

• Gas Prices Run Off the Road-

  A report shows that some American families simply cannot afford to drive anymore, with Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets chief economist and CNBC's Mark Haines.

• Running on Empty: Life Without Cheap Oil-

  It's not a question of if, but when. Futurist and author James Howard Kunstler talks about life in a world without cheap oil.

• Stocks mixed; oil slips-

  June 10. - The Dow gained after an upgrade of Coca-Cola. Meantime, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were weighed down by concerns the Fed will not cut interest rates.

• Wall Street sinks as oil jumps-

  Jun. 11 - Rising oil prices fanned inflation fears, sending investors far from equities.

• McCain Proposes Strategic Energy Independence
• George Soros on commodities
• The Truth About Offshore Drilling-

  The truth about offshore drilling, with David Kirsch, of PFC Energy, and Matt Simmons, Simmons & Co. International. CNBC.

• Robert Hirsch: Finding Alternatives to oil-

  Robert Hirsch, author of The Hirsch Report, on CNBC, talking about peak oil and what to do about it.

• Simmons Says Raised Saudi Oil Output Is `Drop in Bucket'-

  Matt Simmons on Bloomberg. He talks about peak oil, oil prices, and whether demand destruction/recession can lower the cost of gas.

• Bill O'Reilly on oil and gas prices-

  From June 17, 2008.

• Oil Crisis on CNBC, June 17, 2008-

  Michael Rothman, ISI Group and James Tisch, Loews, talk about oil services, production and peak oil.

• America's Oil Crisis-

  Peak Oil Worries An outlook on fuel prices, with Matthew Simmons, Simmons & Co. international chairman and CNBC's Joe Kernen

• Jared Diamond on PBS-

  Jared Diamond discusses peak oil on Newshour.

• Peak Oil Survivalists-

  CNN short about "energy survivalists."

• Bush on the energy crisis-

  President Bush tries to answer a question about gas prices.

• Peak Oil Worries-

  Robert Hirsch on CNBC.

• Oil Firms 'In Liquidation,' Says Simmons-

  Matt Simmons responds to John Hofmeister.

• Behind Oil's Relentless Rise-

  Joe Terranova on CNBC.

• Wall of Ethanol Truth?-

  Jim Cramer doesn't like ethanol.

• Warren Buffet on CNBC-

  Warren Buffet discusses oil depletion on CNBC.

• Matt Simmons on Bloomberg News (3/4/08)-

  Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, talks with Bloomberg's Michael McKee and Deirdre Bolton from Houston about the outlook for tomorrow's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, global oil markets, and outlook for gasoline and crude prices.

• Surprise Friday-

  Matt Simmons the surprise guest on CNBC's "Fast Money."

• The 'Peak Oil' Theory: Will Oil Reserves Run Dry?-

  John Hofmeister, president of Royal Dutch Shell's US operations, talks about peak oil and where Matt Simmons went wrong.

• Tanaka of IEA Says Oil May Rise to $150-

  January 3 (Bloomberg) -- Nobuo Tanaka, director of the International Energy Agency, talks with Bloomberg's Paul George from Paris about the outlook for oil prices, the balance between supply and demand and the need to encourage greater use of nuclear and renewable energy. Oil yesterday reached $100 for the first time and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unable to counter the rally, Libyan and Qatari officials said today.

• T. Boone Pickens on CNBC-

  A wide-ranging interview on energy issues, Feb. 21, 2008.

• Tom Petrie, VP of Merrill Lynch-

  Petrie interviewed on CNBC. He says people in the Middle East are very aware of peak oil, and are planning for it. Much more so than Washington, DC is.

• Robert Hirsch: Finding Alternatives to oil
• Jim Jubak: The Real Reason Oil Spiked-

  When oil jumps $17 a barrel in two days, it's not about the fundamentals of supply and demand, says Jim Jubak. It's the traders who bet a dollar rally would cut oil prices -- but got it wrong. Hear more from Jim Jubak, the Webs #1 investing columnist, on MSN Money: http://tinyurl.com/35smkp

• Gas at $4 Brings Promises, Pandering
• Podcast: Comments on Energy, the US Dollar … And More-

  A couple of weeks ago I was invited by the guys at “The Market Traders” to join in on their weekly roundtable podcast as one of three guest panelists.  If you check out their site, you’ll see that they’re big on commodities.  Possibly a bit more of a speculative bent to their site with ads that make me think that it’s a place where stock pickers come to congregate.  However, I was surprised to find that I wasn’t the only one commenting on ETFs and my fellow panelists didn’t really spend a lot of time discussing specific stocks although a few ETFs were mentioned (not just by me).

• Oil, whither goest thou?-

  A huge debate is raging at the moment about the outlook for crude oil, influencing the formulation of investment strategy in a significant way. Discussions range from excessive speculation to geopolitical factors to increased demand meeting inelastic supply.

  

  A report from Rob Fraim (Mid-Atlantic Securities, Inc) has just arrived in my inbox and is worth perusing for two reasons: (1) Rob’s good track record in this sphere, and (2) his common-sense approach and findings with which I mostly concur. The paragraphs below are extracts from his excellent report.

• Oil aboard !-

  “Every crowd has a silver lining.” – Phineas Taylor Barnum.

  We are all oil experts now. As simple-minded trend-followers watching CNBC sector analysts on Wall Street have spent recent months trampling over each other to issue increasingly facile pronouncements of ever-rising price “targets”, the value-added commentary department for oil was temporarily closed after the Financial Times quoted Tom Bentz, “senior energy analyst” at BNP Paribas, who exclusively revealed on June 7^th that,

   

  “It’s still a bull market in oil.”

   

• Oil Hits New Record, Then Reverses
• Did The Crude Oil Summit Just Cause More Problems?- As reported at the WSJ and elsewhere, Saudi Arabia promised at this weekend's oil summit to increase production slightly by 200,000 barrels a day for the rest of the year, if needed. The announcement was expected. On a more long-term basis, Saudi Arabia has also promised to increase its overall output capability to as high as 15 million barrels a day by 2018. The Saudi's currently have an overall capacity 11.4 million barrels a day. This is just a long-term promise, and not a fix for current supply-demand issues, but does indicate that the Saudi's may have spare capacity. Recently, some have worried that the Saudi's were not raising production simply because they could not do so. The recent promises indicates they can, but of course, this extra supply may be difficult to pump and may only be economical at current high prices. The extra oil pumped will no doubt also be made up largely of heavier crude, and not the light sweet crude the world is demanding.
• Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines The Case, But The Argument Is Weak- As reported in the cover story this week, Barron's outlines the argument that we may be seeing a near-term top in the crude oil markets, and in fact, this may be a sign of a bursting bubble. To setup the argument, Barron's discusses the impact of supply and demand, along with the effects of institutional investments in commodity-linked indexes. For a quick overview, Barron's provides a nice one page overview of oil supply and demand, along with a chart showing the linkage of the price of crude oil as compared to the rise of the Nasdaq Composite in the late 1990s. While Barron's does present the various points for crude oil prices increasing and decreasing (discussed more below), it refers in both the article and video linked below to the "eerily similar" linkage between crude oil prices and the Nasdaq Composite, and how this implies a correction is possible.
• Gas Prices $139 a barrel!
• Dave Maney on America's Nightly Scoreboard
• Oil and the Great Deception- "What matters is growth from the emerging markets, not the United States or other mature markets."
  
  Oil Bulls love to trot out China, and to a lesser extent, India, when discussing the unbelievable growth from emerging markets. I heard a money manager call such growth "massive." Well let's see just how massive this growth is. In 2006, China consumed 7.2 million barrels a day, and in 2007 it consumed 7.58 million barrels a day. This is "astounding" growth of 380 thousand barrels a day. In 2008, the barrel per day growth is estimated to be 420 thousand barrels. While the growth rate is fairly impressive on a percent basis, the absolute increase is hardly more than a rounding error in an 87 million barrel a day market.
  
• Oilexco ( OIL ) RBC Review- Initiating coverage with a rating of Outperform, Above Average Risk and a 12-month price target of C$21.00 - based on oil at $70
  
  Investment Opinion
• Cashing In On High Oil Prices with Canadian Royalty Trusts- Few people know about a class of Canadian public companies that trade on the stock market called Royalty Trusts. They trade like normal stocks; however, Royalty Trusts is a special business entity in Canada which receives special tax breaks from the Canadian government. In exchange for these tax breaks, they are required by law to pay out at least 90% of all earnings to shareholders.
• High Oil Prices - Will Remain High and Earn Investors ( Not Politicians ) Great Returns- High Oil Prices Will Remain High - because there are no alternatives Think Like an Investor and Leave the Talk to Politicians An article in the weekend Globe and Mail highlights the tremendous expansion of wind power in the U.S. - 45 % growth last year and even more to be built in the near future. The effect is zero on America's oil consumption. The AMP has benefited from the push to solar power. The combination of solar and wind power on reducing world energy consumption is above zero - but barely. The economy of the U.S. is slowing - but the rest of the world is growing and the demand of India and China has not missed a beat. America was told by Jimmy Carter , thirty years ago , to turn down the heat. Americans did not want to hear that message and they still ignore conservation. Nuclear Power is no solution in the U.S. The U.S. Congress talks a lot about nuclear energy but it is China that has an accelerated building program. The U.S. talks about ending oil dependancy - but it is only talk. Refineries are not being built , exploration is not allowed in coastal waters, the U.S. Congress drags it's collective feet on meaningful conservation.
• Oil's Hotter Than a Middle Eastern Desert-
  
  Temperatures in the Saudi Arabian Deserts are around 93 today. Crude oil reached 111 this week and prices are hovering around 109-110.
  
  The more the Fed intervenes save the frozen credit markets from utter financial collapse, the colder the US Dollar gets. The colder the US Dollar gets,  the hotter crude oil becomes - and so on. 
  
  Wall Street investors initially greeted the Fed injection of $200 billion with a huge sigh of relief this week. The announcement restored confidence in both the US Dollar and US equity markets. Unfortunately, the restored confidence was fleeting. Analysts panned the Fed measures, and the very next day, the dollar was off to new lows and crude oil off to new highs.
• Oilexco Update - 2007 Report- Oilexco Reports 2007 HIGHLIGHTS - Revenue increased to $345.4 million (2006: $8.8 million) - EBITDA rose to $265.6 million (2006: ($9.7) million) - Net Income of $76.3 million (2006: ($14.0) million) - Raised additional equity funds and debt capacity, providing Oilexco with the flexibility to fund operational activities for 2007 and beyond Production - Average daily production of oil and gas for the whole of 2007 of 11,748 BOE/day - Average oil prices achieved of $79.19 per barrel (2006: $63.96) Exploration, Appraisal and Development Drilling - Oilexco continued its intensive exploration and appraisal drilling throughout 2007 and announced successes at Shelley, Kildare, Huntington, Ptarmigan and Bugle - Acquisition of Balmoral FPV provides the Company with the ability to pursue additional production from stranded assets in the immediate area Outlook for Oilexco - Balanced program of exploration, appraisal and development drilling in 2008, with a total capital budget of $707 million -- Oilexco will drill an additional 5 production wells in the area of the Balmoral FPV
• Top Ten Tips for Trading Crude Oil Futures-
  March 11 2008
  John Bougearel
  
  
  
  
  
  
  My response to a a reader's inquiry on my most recent crude oil post on Wile E. Coyote's Gravity Lesson has evolved into a top ten list. Well, almost top ten. The transcription is as follows:
  
  Hi John,
  I am trying to understand your site and would like to know where the actual tips are located. For example I am trying to understand whether to go short or long for Crude Oil NYMEX at this time.
  
  N,
  Thank you for your questions.
  
  
  1. First, let me point out that the actual “trading tips” is not intended as a trade recommendation service. In other words, I do not say go long $5 “Rocketfuel” and go short $5 on “Plodder”. As webmaster of SuccessfulTradingTips.com I promise to deliver relevant market insights to my reading community.  Some of these market insights will be actionable from time to time, some will not. The tip sheets at the horse track never tells you which horse to bet on, and neither does SuccessfulTradingTips.com.
  2. Oilexco announces North Sea drilling results- Drilling done by Oilexco and its partners uncovered “at least 452 feet of oil column” in the Huntington Fulmar field in the central North Sea, the company said in a news release. Oilexco, which has a 40 per cent stake in the Huntington prospect, said it is studying “fast-track development options,” and that tenders for long-lead items will soon be issued. AMP NOTE : The company is now going to start the tender process for the industrial equipment to move forward production from this discovery. The Huntington Forties oil-accumulation mapped area has been enlarged, and the company expects to apply for regulatory approval to develop the field by the middle of the year. “The Huntington find now appears to be larger than initial expectations,” said Memet Kont, an analyst with UBS Securities. Oilexco continues to deliver strong drilling results. “Huntington and area have proven to be oil-rich and as such, future drilling prospects in the vicinity will likely generate significant enthusiasm.”
  3. North Sea Oil Producer - 300 % Profit ?- Oilexco ( trades on Toronto and London)- Joseph Schacter sees $40 - $50 in 2010 There is no question that the advice of an analyst - 300 % profit in two years - is compelling news. Schacter has his own firm - and it prepares oil and gas analysis for distribution to mutual funds and investors. His appearances on TV are widely followed and often result in price movements. Thursday ( January 24th ) he repeated : 1) the cash flow in 2010 will exceed today's selling price 2) production will rise to 100,000 barrels by 2010 - from 25,000 today
  4. Oil Tops $100 a Barrel and Gives a Lift to ETFs-

     It's finally happened: oil reached a record $100 a barrel, sending exchange traded funds (ETFs) for the commodity upward, as well. That old law of supply and demand is what's driving the high prices.

  5. Oil Index- It remains to be seen what this means for crude, but the XOI is in a bullish ascending triangle stance.
  6. What is the nature of this oil top?- I see a downside to the high 70's to 80 as very likely. But then again, I have made an illustrious career out of top calling oil.
  7. Airlines-
  8. Oil ETFs Overflow with Joy as Oil Prices Approach $90 a Barrel-

     Oil exchange traded funds (ETFs) rose as oil prices soared to a new record of $89 a barrel today after Turkey's parliament authorized an incursion into northern Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels.

  9. Potential for a significant top in oil- Am I talking my book?
  10. Gold & Oil rally- Oilexco ( Oil on London and Toronto ) Trading Pattern- The past week has seen a great recovery for Oilexco. It has traded up and down BUT THE IMPORTANT POINTS are this :
      1) it trades higher on big volume on the days it goes up AND
      2) it trades down on lower volume than up days
      3) the drill ship has been in place for almost three months - I expect great news
      4) new all time highs attract more investors
      5) analysts will raise their target prices because :
      - the Company now earns more on a daily basis
      - the drill results will add to that " wall of cash "