United States

• Stars React to U.S. Government Economic-Bailout-

  Annette Bening, Jim Carrey, Jenny McCarthy reacted to the news that the U.S. Senate has approved a $700-billion economic-bailout plan and commented on the upcoming debate between Palin and Biden at the AFI's 'Night at the Movies' on Wednesday. (Oct. 2)

• Higher bills for the U.S., higher prices for gold- One question being raised in recent days regarding the Treasury Department's plan to save the world, but one that has received far too little attention in the media due to the stark choices that are now apparently on the table is, "Who will pay for this massive bailout?"
  
  The $700 billion estimate was roughly the mid-point of the optimistic total of $500 billion and the pessimistic view of an even one trillion dollars, but, if the last year has taught us anything, it is that we've been way too optimistic about the credit crisis so far.
  
• Austrian study: heating with biomass remains two-thirds cheaper than heating oil - households save €1800 per year, sector create- Heating buildings in a green, renewable way, is one of the most difficult challenges but also one of the most important ones needed to tackle climate change, because heating takes a large share of the energy used in modern societies. The least efficient, costliest and least climate-friendly way to heat buildings is by using electricity, which is why most households and commercial buildings use either heating oil or natural gas.
  
  Of the renewables, a clear winner is now emerging, capable of taking over the fossil fuel based heating sector: biomass. From Austria come new data showing the fuel remains a whopping two-thirds less costly than heating with fossil fuels at today's prices. Biomass heat is now touted in Europe as a way for families to beat inflation caused by high energy bills, while simultaneously contributing in a practical way to fight climate change. For governments, it has become a strategy to tackle growing energy poverty in a cost-effective manner.
  
• The United States May Be The Next Banana Republic- With this announcement, the US has stepped into a realm formerly reserved for such lofty icons of global financial dominance as the Wiemar Republic, Argentina, and Zimbabwe. We are now officially directly monetizing debt, and creating money out of thin air. God forgive us for what we are about to do to our children. September 17, 2008 HP-1144 Treasury Announces [...]
• Wilbur Ross: Possibly a Thousand Banks to Go- I'm watching this regional bank rally with a lot of head scratching. As if they are not exposed to commercial loans, mortgages, and general economic malaise? They are impervious to the forces affecting the rest of the system?
• The U.S. VIX vs. a BRIC VIX-

  India has an /search/label/India%20VIX">India VIX, Germany has the VDAX, and some other countries (largely in Europe) have their own country volatility indices. Outside of North America and Europe, the volatility index pickings are slim, however, so when you want to get a sense of international volatility on a broader scale, you have to roll your own.

  Which is exactly what I have done today.

  In the chart below, the bottom half is a six month chart of implied volatility in the S&P 500 index. It is similar, but not identical to the VIX. Note the March high, a second peak in mid-July, and the recent uptrend in volatility.

• WSJ: Multinationals in U.S. May See Profit Fall- This is something I've been highlighting for quite a while, as the offset to the rejoicing of the "stronger dollar" - throughout the winter I was showing how multinationals were goosing earnings (revenue) not through organic growth but in large part just through a weak U.S. dollar. Now, we are only back to levels on the dollar seen in the spring and it's been a nearly decade bear market so it's all relative. But when your "14% growth" is "9% currency" and "5% reality" - it is going to look ugly for some of these companies once the tailwind goes away. The ability to "surprise" to the upside is going to be much more difficult in the coming quarters if the dollar stays where it is, or strengthens further.
  
• Federer Beats Djokovic to Reach U.S. Open Final-

  Four-time U.S. Open champ Roger Federer beat Novak Djokovic in four sets to reach the final. Number six seed Andy Murray was leading top seed Rafael Nadal when rain stopped the match. Women's final pushed to Sunday. (Sept. 6)

• CPPIB U.S.A. general partner Q1 2008 performance numbers- On Monday we published the Q1 results for the ever-diminishing number of Canadian GPs (”CPPIB Canadian general partner Q1 2008 performance numbers“, August 25-08) that can still count the $127.7 billion CPP Investment Board as a limited partner. Here are the U.S. results, as of March 31, 2008. The one thing that will jump out at [...]
• ‘I.O.U.S.A.’: In debt we trust- ‘I.O.U.S.A.’: In debt we trust G. Allen Johnson Thursday, August 21, 2008 The most important issue in the forthcoming presidential election, according to many experts, is not one that John McCain or Barack Obama is willing to discuss. It’s our national debt. Don’t start snoozing yet. “I.O.U.S.A.” might be the most must-see movie out there, if only because it is [...]
• By law, the United States Mint’s American Eagle….- Well, the current fiasco over the physical shortage symptoms surely isnt quieting down, if anything its getting more gas poured on daily as more and more analysts weigh in on the situation. I was just reading one such article on Seeking Alpha, and ran across a rather excellent and well put comment: Actually, the U.S. Mint has [...]
• Slowing Global Economy And Stronger Dollar A Headwind For U.S. Multinational Firms-
  With a slowing global economy and a recent strengthening in the U.S. dollar, U.S. multinational companies could face an earnings headwind going forward.
  
  
  
  As I noted in an earlier post, S & P 500 Company Sales Increasingly International, Standard & Poor's reported the percentage of 2007 sales for S&P 500 companies that come from foreign countries has increased since 2006 to 45.8% versus 43.6%, respectively.
  
  A recent report from S&P's The Outlook website notes:
• An Incovenient Economic Truth - I.O.U.S.A.- The "feel-good" movie of the summer, "I.O.U.S.A.", on the uplifting subjects of burgeoning American debt and the coming entitlement tsunami, is set to debut two weeks from today. Movie fans around the country are chomping at the bit.
  
  
  The seven minute clip above is a combination movie trailer and documentary that should give you an excellent idea of what the movie is all about.
  
• Sovereign Wealth Funds Starting To Turn Away From The U.S.- Since 2007, sovereign wealth funds have spent almost $80 billion to buy stakes in U.S. companies, in particular banks that were desperately in need of a capital infusion. Now, the International Herald Tribune is reporting that the lender of last resort may be having second thoughts. Even though most SWF don't have to report mark-to-market losses in public, they still want to make a return, and some high profile investments, such as those in Merrill Lynch (MER), are not turning out as expected. Many SWF are now entering "south-south" trades, or in other words, simply investing in other emerging economies. While the moves are being made to not only look for higher return, south-south trades also prevent emerging economies (many of which got their start-up capital from the West) from simply recycling their funds back into these same economies. Oil-exporting countries for one are looking to hedge against oil price fluctuations by becoming underweight assets correlated with oil prices, i.e., just about everything U.S. based.
• McCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'-

  PlusMcCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'McCain: U.S. Needs an Economic 'surge'The Associated PressJohn McCain says the U.S. needs an economic 'surge' to keep jobs in the country and create new ones. (Aug. 6)This video contains ONLY natural sound. No script is available.

• BCSC revises 51-509 Rule for U.S. OTC issuers – Part 1- This entry is part 1 of 1 in the series BCSC revises 51-509 Rule for U.S. OTC issuersThe British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC) is proposing new rule changes along with the related companion policy’s and forms for issuers quoted in the U.S. over-the-counter markets (OTCBB) and pink sheets. These changes can be located [...]
• Study: biogas from manure could generate energy for millions in the U.S.-
  
  
  Converting livestock manure into a domestic renewable fuel source could generate enough electricity to meet up to three per cent of North America's entire consumption needs and lead to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), according to a paper published today by researchers from the University of Texas at Austin, in the Institute of Physics' Environmental Research Letters.
  
  The open access paper, 'Cow Power: The Energy and Emissions Benefits of Converting Manure to Biogas', has implications for all countries with livestock as it is one the few attempts to outline a procedure for quantifying the national amount of renewable energy that herds of cattle and other livestock can generate and the concomitant GHG emission reductions.
  
• Alternative Energy & Conventional Energy: Is An Image Worth A Thousand Words?- It wasn't long ago that people still believed the price of energy commodities - and crude oil in particular - had a greater impact on alt energy stocks than did general movements in equity markets or even fundamental factors. The...
• GPD/USD- Anyone going short on the GBP/USD into the weekend saw great gains. Even if you entered the trade ahead of the 200 pip gain early Friday morning, you would have still made a profit of 100 pip. After hitting its highest point on Saturday at 2.0389, the pair began its slide toward this morning’s low point of 2.0083 marking a nice 300 pip return to those shorting the GBP/USD.